The Ukraine war thread
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@jon-nyc said in The Ukraine war thread:
Can't rebuild the Russian empire without Crimea, after all.
Or Alaska ...
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How long?
Gosh, Putin has been busy since he came to power. It's happening in your face right now.
And he won't stop if nobody kicks his ass. -
The latest Woodward book offered a lot of insight as to how he thinks. I recommend it.
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Thoughts on that?
Everything hinges on what Russia is prepared to negotiate in good faith and how badly it wants economic sanctions reduced or altogether lifted.
I do however think and agree that the Crimea is irretrievably lost to Russia. As for the occupied territories in the Donbas, they are little more than minefields and rubble. The cost of remediation would be astronomical and hardly worth Kyiv trying to regain them at the negotiating table.
In any event, Putin has already and irrevocably lost the long term peace. The question is whether he understands the implications of that fact or even cares about them.
“Little by little I am learning the art of being quite content by doing very little slowly” ~ Lionel Hardcastle
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@jon-nyc said in The Ukraine war thread:
Can't rebuild the Russian empire without Crimea, after all.
So the non-serious outcome where Crimea goes back to Ukraine would be proof that Trump is not actually a Russian ally. I am sure Trump will face many non-serious requirements in order to be proven a worthy American leader.
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@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
I do however think and agree that the Crimea is irretrievably lost to Russia. As for the occupied territories in the Donbas, they are little more than minefields and rubble. The cost of remediation would be astronomical and hardly worth Kyiv trying to regain them at the negotiating table.
I agree. The cost to rehabilitate the "conquered" sections of the Ukraine will be huge. What's more the area is largely populated by Russian speaking peoples that largely want to be part of the "motherland." So let Russia pay the cost of rebuilding the infrastructure. It would be best for the West to consolidate the still functional parts of Ukraine and help them to be prosperous--REALLY prosperous. Bring the country into the EU and NATO and turn it into a badass anti-Russian stronghold like Poland and the Baltics.
The point of all this isn't to preserve the sanctity of the Ukraine but to f**k Russia.
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What's more the area is largely populated by Russian speaking peoples that largely want to be part of the "motherland."
That was my general understanding as well until the invasion and I did my homework about Ukraine.
First I quickly learned that the vast majority of Russian speaking Ukrainians do not have an affinity for the Russian motherland. Rather they see themselves as citizens of a sovereign Ukraine inhabiting an area which was formerly a free zone, known as the Zaporozhian Host, governed by the Zaporizhian Cossack Hetmanate on the east bank of the Dniepro River.
Secondly, the separatists in the Donbas were a small minority of the Russian speaking population. They were closely associated with the Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich who fled to Moscow during the Maidan uprising in 2013.
Thirdly, the tie between Russia and Ukraine is largely a myth that has been propagated and embellished by Russians starting in the 19th Century and continuing into the present. Ukraine has far greater ties culturally and nationally to Poland, Lithuania and Austria than Russia. The only cultural aspect that has ever linked Kyiv and Moscow is their mutual observance of the Orthodox Liturgy. Beyond that Ukrainians and even the Zaporozhian Host naturally always looked westward in defining its national identity in the territories that have become to be known as Ukraine.
The point of all this isn't to preserve the sanctity of the Ukraine but to f**k Russia.
Putin alone has done a stellar job of doing just that to Russia. I agree though the West has to get over any notions that Russia can be or will be our friend or at all trustworthy as either a partner or player on the international stage. It is becoming more like North Korea as each year passes.
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@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
Guns or butter. If we support ceding Ukrainian territory, how long until Russia rebuilds and attacks again?
If we agree to this all sanctions must remain in place and Russia be a true pariah in the world.
I agree. Hate to see President Putin "rewarded" in any way.
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@George-K said in The Ukraine war thread:
Though I did read (and can't find) that the Nork soldiers didn't stand up well.
directly unrelated to the above post, but some more info on DPRK troops and weapons.
The peculiar North Korean Type 73 machine gun is getting new attention as a result of the Hermit Kingdom’s expanding support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, which now includes the deployment of thousands of troops. The weapon, chambered in the Russian 7.62x54mmR cartridge, is a unique blending of Cold War Soviet and Czech designs.
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@taiwan_girl said in The Ukraine war thread:
@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
Guns or butter. If we support ceding Ukrainian territory, how long until Russia rebuilds and attacks again?
If we agree to this all sanctions must remain in place and Russia be a true pariah in the world.
I agree. Hate to see President Putin "rewarded" in any way.
I too agree with both you and Mik.
As a close friend of mine and retired diplomat whose forty year career focussed on security and NATO related issues, pointed out to me in an email recently, Ukraine is the “ Free World's "Battle of Vienna”* moment; the time and place where we stand at the ramparts to defend our civilization and its values of democracy, freedom, human rights, equality, and rule of law.”
Putin cannot be rewarded or appeased in any way. Should negotiations commence Putin, in addition to the Ukrainian territory his troops have already occupied, will demand the whole of Zaporizhie and Kherson oblasts and quite possibly the whole southern coast of Ukraine along the Black Sea up to the border of Moldova and its breakaway province of Transdneistra. These demands will be couched as just reparations from Ukraine for the damage it caused to the Donbas, all Russian infrastructure and the loss of Russian soldiers and civilians since the conflict began in 2014.
I predict those demands, along with the unconditional lifting of sanctions, complete political and economic neutrality of what will remain of Ukraine rendering it a vassal state of the Kremlin, will be Russia’s starting points.
“Little by little I am learning the art of being quite content by doing very little slowly” ~ Lionel Hardcastle
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Cloaking the Norks, another lesson learned from Stalin playbook on waging war:
“History repeats itself in strange ways,” says Dr. Sayana Namsaraeva, a Buryat scholar and senior research associate at the Mongolia & Inner Asia Studies Unit at the University of Cambridge whose recent research work focuses on Buryat and other Soviet-Asian involvement in the 1950-1953 Korean War in which Buryats, Sakha, Tuvans and other Soviet Asians were deployed to fight for North Korea in the Korean War under the guise of Chinese volunteers.
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German Chancellor Schloz parlays over the phone with Putin:
Later on Friday, the Kremlin confirmed that the phone call had taken place, describing it as “detailed and frank.” Putin was said to have repeated his claims that NATO was to blame for the war in Ukraine, adding that Russia “remains open to resuming negotiations that were interrupted by the Kyiv regime.”
He was also said to have spelled out Russia’s “well-known” negotiating stance, including the country’s security interests, its current positions on the front lines and “most importantly, eliminating the root causes of the conflict.”
Putin still plays the victim.
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President Zelensky has said the war in Ukraine will “end sooner” once Donald Trump becomes US president than it otherwise would have.
“It is certain that the war will end sooner with the policies of the team that will now lead the White House,” the Ukrainian leader said in an interview. “This is their approach, their promise to their citizens.”
He added that Ukraine “must do everything so that this war ends next year, ends through diplomatic means”.
Zelensky said on Friday that he had a “constructive exchange” with Trump during their phone conversation after Trump’s election victory, although US legislation prevents them from meeting ahead of Trump’s inauguration in January.
“I didn’t hear anything that goes against our position,” he told the Ukrainian media outlet Suspilne, adding that he would only talk directly with Trump and not through emissaries.
“I, as the president of Ukraine, will only take seriously a conversation with the president of the United States of America, with all due respect to any entourage, to any people,” he said.
Trump has suggested that he will halt US aid if Zelensky refuses to negotiate a ceasefire with the Kremlin.
If the Russian president rejects any peace proposals, Trump has said he could instead ramp up weapons deliveries to Ukraine. He could also grant Ukraine permission to use long-range western missiles to hit targets deep inside Russia, something that the Biden administration has so far refused to sanction.
Putin has previously said that peace is only possible if Kyiv formally renounces any plans to join Nato. He has also demanded Ukraine surrender four regions in the south and east of the country, as well as Crimea, which Zelensky has so far refused to contemplate.
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Groundwork is being laid for The Deal.
On one hand, Ukraine will be under pressure to cut a deal or lose their major supplier of arms and ammunition.
OTOH, Russia will be under pressure, that Ukraine may get more and better weapons, with carte blanche to use them as they will.
