The Ukraine war thread
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A friend emailed me the following article from Time. Although I am no fan of the slick journal, it is a very informed and well written editorial. The money quote:
There’s no attempt to deal with the oppressions of the Russian and Soviet past, the way the Kremlin repeatedly colonizes, ethnically cleanses, deports, starves and mass murders other nations, and the way it kills and arrests and humiliates masses of its own people too in labour camps, Gulags, and the killing cellars of the KGB. Russia is a country that makes no effort to make sense of, define who was responsible, ask for forgiveness and move on from its legacy of mass murder and institutionalized sadism.
It's striking how little mention of the future there is in the Kremlin’s propaganda. There’s only vengeance, warped nostalgia for the USSR, a mythic, cruel “Russian World”—and resentment. The Russian project has failed, so the aim now is to bring everyone down to its own level, drag all down to its cellar.
wrote on 12 Oct 2022, 20:56 last edited by@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
There’s only vengeance, warped nostalgia for the USSR, a mythic, cruel “Russian World”—and resentment.
Years and years ago, I listened to a Teaching Company course on the history of Russia. Naturally, I've forgotten most of it, but one concept stuck with me.
"Russia is an Asian country which is trying to be European."
I'm not sure if that's accurate in its entirety, but the "trying to be something else" part is probably true.
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@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
There’s only vengeance, warped nostalgia for the USSR, a mythic, cruel “Russian World”—and resentment.
Years and years ago, I listened to a Teaching Company course on the history of Russia. Naturally, I've forgotten most of it, but one concept stuck with me.
"Russia is an Asian country which is trying to be European."
I'm not sure if that's accurate in its entirety, but the "trying to be something else" part is probably true.
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wrote on 12 Oct 2022, 21:55 last edited by
When you have only four friends in the world.
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wrote on 12 Oct 2022, 21:57 last edited by George K 10 Dec 2022, 21:58
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wrote on 13 Oct 2022, 12:05 last edited by
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wrote on 13 Oct 2022, 19:08 last edited by Renauda
Received from a friend as part of an email earlier today.
Something to consider:
The "Putin will totally nuke the entire western world over the ownership of Kherson" argument doesn't go together with the "He's a very reasonable guy you can just strike a deal with at any time" argument, but by God a lot of people try to make it.”
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wrote on 13 Oct 2022, 19:09 last edited by
Yeah, right?
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wrote on 13 Oct 2022, 20:12 last edited by
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wrote on 13 Oct 2022, 20:30 last edited by
@George-K said in The Ukraine war thread:
I still don't understand how the evidence doesn't completely point to "nukes are inevitable."
When he's out of traditional weapons, it's not like he's going to pack up and go home.
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@George-K said in The Ukraine war thread:
I still don't understand how the evidence doesn't completely point to "nukes are inevitable."
When he's out of traditional weapons, it's not like he's going to pack up and go home.
wrote on 13 Oct 2022, 21:32 last edited by RenaudaIf Putin uses nukes he stands to turn even his fair weather friends, India and China, against Russia. Given the messages coming out the NATO and the EU today, it is almost certain a nuke on a Ukrainian target would trigger article 5 of the NATO treaty. That happens and Putin loses his army and his Black Sea fleet.
Fear of what Putin could or would do is no solution. Fear of what he could, would or might do leads only to appeasement as his stated minimal terms amount to unconditional surrender of Ukraine to either Russian suzerainty or, more likely, loss of sovereignty altogether.
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If Putin uses nukes he stands to turn even his fair weather friends, India and China, against Russia. Given the messages coming out the NATO and the EU today, it is almost certain a nuke on a Ukrainian target would trigger article 5 of the NATO treaty. That happens and Putin loses his army and his Black Sea fleet.
Fear of what Putin could or would do is no solution. Fear of what he could, would or might do leads only to appeasement as his stated minimal terms amount to unconditional surrender of Ukraine to either Russian suzerainty or, more likely, loss of sovereignty altogether.
wrote on 13 Oct 2022, 21:32 last edited by RenaudaDbl post
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If Putin uses nukes he stands to turn even his fair weather friends, India and China, against Russia. Given the messages coming out the NATO and the EU today, it is almost certain a nuke on a Ukrainian target would trigger article 5 of the NATO treaty. That happens and Putin loses his army and his Black Sea fleet.
Fear of what Putin could or would do is no solution. Fear of what he could, would or might do leads only to appeasement as his stated minimal terms amount to unconditional surrender of Ukraine to either Russian suzerainty or, more likely, loss of sovereignty altogether.
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@Renauda let's say he pushes the red button.
Will the rest of the government stand by him?
Never mind. Of course they will.
wrote on 13 Oct 2022, 21:58 last edited by@George-K said in The Ukraine war thread:
@Renauda let's say he pushes the red button.
Will the rest of the government stand by him?
Never mind. Of course they will.
I think a lot of them are pissed he hasn't already.
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If Putin uses nukes he stands to turn even his fair weather friends, India and China, against Russia. Given the messages coming out the NATO and the EU today, it is almost certain a nuke on a Ukrainian target would trigger article 5 of the NATO treaty. That happens and Putin loses his army and his Black Sea fleet.
Fear of what Putin could or would do is no solution. Fear of what he could, would or might do leads only to appeasement as his stated minimal terms amount to unconditional surrender of Ukraine to either Russian suzerainty or, more likely, loss of sovereignty altogether.
wrote on 13 Oct 2022, 22:04 last edited by@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
If Putin uses nukes he stands to turn even his fair weather friends, India and China, against Russia. Given the messages coming out the NATO and the EU today, it is almost certain a nuke on a Ukrainian target would trigger article 5 of the NATO treaty. That happens and Putin loses his army and his Black Sea fleet.
Right, but in Putin's mind, he's in an existential conflict, right? So he gets desperate, drops a nuke, we take out his fleet and he takes that as a direct assault from NATO on Russia and we're right into plan A.
No one has a deescalation plan so how is that not a certainty at this point?
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@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
If Putin uses nukes he stands to turn even his fair weather friends, India and China, against Russia. Given the messages coming out the NATO and the EU today, it is almost certain a nuke on a Ukrainian target would trigger article 5 of the NATO treaty. That happens and Putin loses his army and his Black Sea fleet.
Right, but in Putin's mind, he's in an existential conflict, right? So he gets desperate, drops a nuke, we take out his fleet and he takes that as a direct assault from NATO on Russia and we're right into plan A.
No one has a deescalation plan so how is that not a certainty at this point?
wrote on 13 Oct 2022, 22:51 last edited by RenaudaThe only one who ought to have a deescalation plan is Putin himself. It would appear he does not and I would suggest the thought of such never entered his mind. All he knows is escalation - even Kremlin talk of negotiation amounts to escalation as the stated terms or nothing less than unconditional surrender.
That is the predicament Kyiv and NATO are faced. Appease Putin by ceding whatever territory of Ukraine he wants now and in future and leave the rump state of what remains of Ukraine as a vassal state at the pleasure of a re-emerging Russian Empire or Soviet Union.
When thinking and talking about how to get Putin to deescalate and stop what he’s doing through diplomacy, remember the - albeit probably apocryphal - words of Churchill when urged to negotiate with Germany following the fall of France in 1940:
“You cannot negotiate with a tiger when he has your head in his mouth.”
You know the rest of the story.
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wrote on 13 Oct 2022, 22:59 last edited by Mik
Some truths are eternal. If we bow to Putin’s nuclear blackmail today we will just find ourselves in the same position when he may be stronger. .
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wrote on 14 Oct 2022, 00:45 last edited by
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Some truths are eternal. If we bow to Putin’s nuclear blackmail today we will just find ourselves in the same position when he may be stronger. .
wrote on 14 Oct 2022, 01:24 last edited by Aqua Letifer@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
Some truths are eternal. If we bow to Putin’s nuclear blackmail today we will just find ourselves in the same position when he may be stronger. .
Yeah, I'm not saying we do it, I'm just asking: how is he not going to go nuclear anyway? Does anyone really think this isn't going to happen?