Nukes?
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Jolly is correct on all points. Once the nuclear threshold is crossed there is no backing down the ladder.
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I really do wonder what would happen if Putin would use a small tactical nuke.
Would the US then really send all their big nukes, and wait for the mutually assured destruction?
There is certainly a very real danger that things would escalate to that level, but I don't think it's a given.
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I really do wonder what would happen if Putin would use a small tactical nuke.
Would the US then really send all their big nukes, and wait for the mutually assured destruction?
There is certainly a very real danger that things would escalate to that level, but I don't think it's a given.
@Klaus No way would that kind of escalation occur just from a battlefield nuke in Ukraine. I think if they used a nuclear bomb the support to isolate them completely, which is very high already in the west, would go off the charts.
I think the real risk of major escalation would be if he tried this with the Baltics, since they're Nato states. I suspect his plan has been to wait to see if Trump returns before trying that, since Trump already publicly caved on Article 5.
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I really do wonder what would happen if Putin would use a small tactical nuke.
Would the US then really send all their big nukes, and wait for the mutually assured destruction?
There is certainly a very real danger that things would escalate to that level, but I don't think it's a given.
I really do wonder what would happen if Putin would use a small tactical nuke.
Would the US then really send all their big nukes, and wait for the mutually assured destruction?
There is certainly a very real danger that things would escalate to that level, but I don't think it's a given.
I think it's instructive that when Putin went to nuclear high alert, the President chose not to meet him (going to DefCon 3) but rather had his people out saying that once again Putin is manufacturing a menace.
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I really do wonder what would happen if Putin would use a small tactical nuke.
Would the US then really send all their big nukes, and wait for the mutually assured destruction?
There is certainly a very real danger that things would escalate to that level, but I don't think it's a given.
I think it's instructive that when Putin went to nuclear high alert, the President chose not to meet him (going to DefCon 3) but rather had his people out saying that once again Putin is manufacturing a menace.
I think it's instructive that when Putin went to nuclear high alert, the President chose not to meet him (going to DefCon 3) but rather had his people out saying that once again Putin is manufacturing a menace.
Another likely explanation is that Zelensky's had a target on his back since day one, and showing up would present a security hazard.
(I assume you're talking about the meeting near Belarus today)
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What if Putin would issue an ultimatum of the form "Either you accept defeat, or I'll level Kiev with nukes"? I think it's not entirely impossible that this happens if the war goes south for Russia and Putin feels cornered.
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https://olxpraca.com/ukraine-nuclear-weapons-russia-invasion/
The tragedy now unfolding in Ukraine highlights a broader principle that is clearly visible around the world: countries that sacrifice their nuclear deterrent in exchange for promises of international goodwill often sign their own death warrant. In a world teeming with weapons capable of destroying human civilization, nonproliferation is itself a morally worthwhile and even necessary goal. But the experience of countries that have actually disarmed is likely to lead many of them to come to a different conclusion in the future.
The betrayal of the Ukrainians, in particular, cannot be underestimated. In 1994, the government of Ukraine signed a memorandum according to which the country joined the global Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, formally renouncing the status of a nuclear power. The text of this agreement stated that in exchange for this move, “the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine.”
Since then, the territorial integrity of Ukraine has not been respected. After Russia’s annexation of the Ukrainian territory of Crimea in 2014, which did not provoke a serious international reaction, Ukrainian leaders have already thought twice about the merits of the agreement they signed just two decades ago. Today they sound positively bitter about it.
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What if Putin would issue an ultimatum of the form "Either you accept defeat, or I'll level Kiev with nukes"? I think it's not entirely impossible that this happens if the war goes south for Russia and Putin feels cornered.
What if Putin would issue an ultimatum of the form "Either you accept defeat, or I'll level Kiev with nukes"? I think it's not entirely impossible that this happens if the war goes south for Russia and Putin feels cornered.
History will record that as the official date that WW3 started.
It won't be Biden to lead that. He will follow after someone else pulls the trigger on Putin.
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What if Putin would issue an ultimatum of the form "Either you accept defeat, or I'll level Kiev with nukes"? I think it's not entirely impossible that this happens if the war goes south for Russia and Putin feels cornered.
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I wonder what are the chances of somebody in Russia doing something about VP?
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I wonder what are the chances of somebody in Russia doing something about VP?
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The penalty for protesting in Russia is 20 years in a Russian prison. You've got to really be committed to what you're protesting to risk that. Yet around 6,000 Russians have been arrested for protesting this war. From what I've heard, there is only 1 person in all of Russia in favor of this invasion, and that is Putin himself.
There has been much talk from several directions over the past 2 days questioning Putin's sanity. Even some of Putin's inner circle of wealthy oligarchs are calling for peace. The Ruble has collapsed. Putin is actually facing the potential collapse of Russia itself.
A large number of that 150,000 strong military Putin has had positioned around Ukraine for the last 4 months are conscripts, don't know why they're there, don't want to be there, don't want to invade Ukraine to start with, and are having trouble getting food and fuel.
Even if Putin manages to take Ukraine he will never be able to hold it. So he has already lost, even if he takes Ukraine. Already some other non NATO countries are talking about wanting to join. Putin had hoped to create divisions among the various nations of Europe, but the exact opposite has happened.
No matter what happens, 2 things are definite: 1. Putin will never hold Ukraine, and 2. Putin's time is over. Am very very proud of the people of Ukraine. Very proud.
