Italy Covid update
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-96% suffered from other illnesses
-Average age 80
1.1% were under 50 -
Hm. Made me think about Jon's argument that the IFR estimates of ~0.4% (IIRC) can't be right given the numbers in NYC. Given the massive influence of high blood pressure and similar illnesses, isn't it reasonable to expect that IFR is correlated to obesity rates? If that is true, shouldn't one expect the IFR in the US to be significantly higher than in other first world countries with less obesity? That wouldn't explain the data in NYC in particular, but maybe it holds for all of the US? In any case, it might be interesting to see distributions of BMI among the deceased.
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If you live long enough, you suffer from other illnesses. Rare is the person who lives a life of perfect health and drops dead while walking to the mailbox on their 90th birthday.
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If you live long enough, you suffer from other illnesses. Rare is the person who lives a life of perfect health and drops dead while walking to the mailbox on their 90th birthday.
@Jolly said in Italy Covid update:
If you live long enough, you suffer from other illnesses. Rare is the person who lives a life of perfect health and drops dead while walking to the mailbox on their 90th birthday.
Reading "Lifespan" by Sinclair affirms that. Though the lifespan of people has increased, the absolute limit has not really changed. People who live to be 100 (currently about 3%) have been around for a long time. However, the top number hasn't really changed, at all.
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The island of Sicily tourist authority is offering to pay 50% of your airfare and every third night of hotel fare if you come to visit Sicily.
Kind of tempting, but I am not sure I am quite ready to do so.
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Hm. Made me think about Jon's argument that the IFR estimates of ~0.4% (IIRC) can't be right given the numbers in NYC. Given the massive influence of high blood pressure and similar illnesses, isn't it reasonable to expect that IFR is correlated to obesity rates? If that is true, shouldn't one expect the IFR in the US to be significantly higher than in other first world countries with less obesity? That wouldn't explain the data in NYC in particular, but maybe it holds for all of the US? In any case, it might be interesting to see distributions of BMI among the deceased.
@Klaus said in Italy Covid update:
If that is true, shouldn't one expect the IFR in the US to be significantly higher than in other first world countries with less obesity?
Me on March 3rd:
- China saw much higher death rates in people with certain co-morbidities. Some of those co-morbidities are present in a much higher percentage of the population here than in China. For example, the biggest co-morbidity risk factor was cardiovascular disease - the fatality rate among those patients was over 10%. But only 20% of Chinese adults have cardiovascular disease, here it's almost half. Will that be reflected in the CFR? That could make it materially higher.
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@Klaus said in Italy Covid update:
If that is true, shouldn't one expect the IFR in the US to be significantly higher than in other first world countries with less obesity?
Me on March 3rd:
- China saw much higher death rates in people with certain co-morbidities. Some of those co-morbidities are present in a much higher percentage of the population here than in China. For example, the biggest co-morbidity risk factor was cardiovascular disease - the fatality rate among those patients was over 10%. But only 20% of Chinese adults have cardiovascular disease, here it's almost half. Will that be reflected in the CFR? That could make it materially higher.
@jon-nyc said in Italy Covid update:
@Klaus said in Italy Covid update:
If that is true, shouldn't one expect the IFR in the US to be significantly higher than in other first world countries with less obesity?
Me on March 3rd:
- China saw much higher death rates in people with certain co-morbidities. Some of those co-morbidities are present in a much higher percentage of the population here than in China. For example, the biggest co-morbidity risk factor was cardiovascular disease - the fatality rate among those patients was over 10%. But only 20% of Chinese adults have cardiovascular disease, here it's almost half. Will that be reflected in the CFR? That could make it materially higher.
Yeah and I argued that the diamond princess showed a low CFR and now you are predictinglower than the 1% I said at the time (which was not age adjusted). Looks like CDC call is amazing close to age adjusted diamond princess.
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You argued from incomplete data about the DP, which I pointed out at the time. Time has vindicated me, deaths more than doubled since your first post on the subject.
I’m arguing an IFR between 0.5 and 0.75. You argued an IFR of 0.125
@jon-nyc said in Italy Covid update:
You argued from incomplete data about the DP, which I pointed out at the time. Time has vindicated me, deaths more than doubled since your first post on the subject.
I’m arguing an IFR between 0.5 and 0.75. You argued an IFR of 0.125
Well if you were saying .50 to .75 all along I would say we have been largely on the same page. I did say I would accept CDCs worst case which is not too far from you current number. Regardless the new data is at a large variance from all the anecdotal stories of young kids and young people dying of coronavirus as the data by age is finally coming in.
