"A minor incursion."
-
Mr. Biden didn’t help deterrence at his press conference Wednesday by suggesting that a “minor incursion” by Russia might not trigger a united response from the West. “It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion and then we end up having to fight about what to do and not do,” Mr. Biden said. Pressed on the point, he didn’t provide any clarity on what would be “minor,” and Mr. Putin may think he now has leave to take at least some territory.
This response fits the pattern that goes back to the weak Western responses to Russia’s previous aggression. In 2009, after Russia’s invasion of Georgia the previous year, Barack Obama called for a “reset” with the Kremlin and achieved little. In 2014 Mr. Obama and Europe imposed sanctions on Russia, but they were too weak to make much difference.
The Biden Administration is now promising “massive consequences” if Russia invades again, but why should Mr. Putin believe it? The U.S. has ruled out any direct U.S. military defense of Ukraine, so Mr. Putin knows he needn’t worry about that. But the U.S. has also failed to raise the costs of a Russian invasion by adequately arming Kyiv.
