CDC revises fatality rate
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wrote on 25 May 2020, 18:17 last edited by
Even in NY the vast majority of deaths are over 75, more than double the 65-75.
Under 65 is fractional.
All that is according to the NY DOH
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wrote on 25 May 2020, 18:22 last edited by
Even if 100% of cases were over 65 the CDC number would still be off by a factor of 2.
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wrote on 25 May 2020, 18:25 last edited by
@jon-nyc said in CDC revises fatality rate:
Even if 100% of cases were over 65 the CDC number would still be off by a factor of 2.
If it were that obvious and the CDC posted it they should have been gone a long long time ago.
But getting back to who Covid is really lethal to at scale, I think all media has done a miserable job of telling that story. And it is important because some people have a sense and it is part of the tension to open the country and economy again.
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@Horace said in CDC revises fatality rate:
It doesn't seem drastically different from their estimate for CFR in the elderly. Of that 21k, what is the age breakdown?
Even if 100% of cases (not deaths) were over 65, it would still be double their estimate.
wrote on 25 May 2020, 19:05 last edited by Horace@jon-nyc said in CDC revises fatality rate:
@Horace said in CDC revises fatality rate:
It doesn't seem drastically different from their estimate for CFR in the elderly. Of that 21k, what is the age breakdown?
Even if 100% of cases (not deaths) were over 65, it would still be double their estimate.
I was going by 21k deaths out of 20% of 8.4m which is 1.25%, below their estimate for 65+ individuals. I understand that you can zoom in on each of those numbers to find reasons it's a flawed estimate. But an important piece of info would be the age breakdown of the 21k.
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@jon-nyc said in CDC revises fatality rate:
Even if 100% of cases were over 65 the CDC number would still be off by a factor of 2.
If it were that obvious and the CDC posted it they should have been gone a long long time ago.
But getting back to who Covid is really lethal to at scale, I think all media has done a miserable job of telling that story. And it is important because some people have a sense and it is part of the tension to open the country and economy again.
wrote on 25 May 2020, 19:07 last edited by@Loki said in CDC revises fatality rate:
@jon-nyc said in CDC revises fatality rate:
Even if 100% of cases were over 65 the CDC number would still be off by a factor of 2.
If it were that obvious and the CDC posted it they should have been gone a long long time ago.
But getting back to who Covid is really lethal to at scale, I think all media has done a miserable job of telling that story. And it is important because some people have a sense and it is part of the tension to open the country and economy again.
I am not holding my breath for any smart, numerate folk to take a public deep dive into the IFR for healthy young adults. I am glad the CDC did. Nobody else has so much as attempted to do so, from what I've seen.
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@jon-nyc said in CDC revises fatality rate:
@Horace said in CDC revises fatality rate:
It doesn't seem drastically different from their estimate for CFR in the elderly. Of that 21k, what is the age breakdown?
Even if 100% of cases (not deaths) were over 65, it would still be double their estimate.
I was going by 21k deaths out of 20% of 8.4m which is 1.25%, below their estimate for 65+ individuals. I understand that you can zoom in on each of those numbers to find reasons it's a flawed estimate. But an important piece of info would be the age breakdown of the 21k.
wrote on 25 May 2020, 19:33 last edited by@Horace said in CDC revises fatality rate:
@jon-nyc said in CDC revises fatality rate:
@Horace said in CDC revises fatality rate:
It doesn't seem drastically different from their estimate for CFR in the elderly. Of that 21k, what is the age breakdown?
Even if 100% of cases (not deaths) were over 65, it would still be double their estimate.
I was going by 21k deaths out of 20% of 8.4m which is 1.25%, below their estimate for 65+ individuals. I understand that you can zoom in on each of those numbers to find reasons it's a flawed estimate. But an important piece of info would be the age breakdown of the 21k.
Your mistake was not taking into account their 35% asymptomatic number. Which would push it to 2%.
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wrote on 25 May 2020, 19:35 last edited by
Even still it is definitely nowhere near true that 100% of all cases are 65 plus.
There’s just no bridging the gap between their estimate and the NYC reality.
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wrote on 25 May 2020, 19:40 last edited by jon-nyc
I don’t see how any argument from authority or deep dive into demographics can bridge you from a 0.25% population fatality rate to a 0.26% infection fatality rate when only 20% of the population has been infected.
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wrote on 25 May 2020, 19:45 last edited by
Right there in the story was that NY was sending its covid patients back to the nursing homes. There is reason to believe that the population who were dying had a greater than 20% rate of infection.
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wrote on 25 May 2020, 19:48 last edited by Horace
Not to mention that the 65+ age bucket certainly has drastically different expectations of fatality after symptomatic infection, when further broken down by age. I would not be surprised if an 85 year old had several multiples of the risk of a 65 year old.
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wrote on 25 May 2020, 19:48 last edited by
So we were undercounting Covid deaths?
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Right there in the story was that NY was sending its covid patients back to the nursing homes. There is reason to believe that the population who were dying had a greater than 20% rate of infection.
wrote on 25 May 2020, 19:49 last edited by@Horace said in CDC revises fatality rate:
Right there in the story was that NY was sending its covid patients back to the nursing homes. There is reason to believe that the population who were dying had a greater than 20% rate of infection.
Yup, versus the much maligned gov of Florida who separated the elderly...and when Florida opened faster than the rest of the country and didn’t have disaster, the evil incarnate governor fell off the media pages.
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wrote on 25 May 2020, 19:54 last edited by
I dont see either one of your points. - no conceivable demographic details get you from a 0.25% population fatality rate to a 0.26% infection fatality rate with a 20% serology result. And no conceivable fact about nursing homes or inter-state comparisons gets you there either.
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wrote on 25 May 2020, 19:56 last edited by
@jon-nyc said in CDC revises fatality rate:
So we were undercounting Covid deaths?
It seems likely that 20% undercounts the expected infection rate of those in the numerator of the fatality rate.
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wrote on 25 May 2020, 19:58 last edited by
Of course. The infection rate of the 21k numerator is 100%. Those are the Covid deaths.
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I dont see either one of your points. - no conceivable demographic details get you from a 0.25% population fatality rate to a 0.26% infection fatality rate with a 20% serology result. And no conceivable fact about nursing homes or inter-state comparisons gets you there either.
wrote on 25 May 2020, 19:59 last edited by@jon-nyc said in CDC revises fatality rate:
I dont see either one of your points. - no conceivable demographic details get you from a 0.25% population fatality rate to a 0.26% infection fatality rate with a 20% serology result. And no conceivable fact about nursing homes or inter-state comparisons gets you there either.
It seems conceivable that the 20% underestimates the rate of infection of the pool of folk who comprised the numerator of the fatality rate. I don't mean to make the tautology that if you died of it then you had it, i mean to say that they came from an identifiable cohort (nursing homes?) with far greater than 20% infection rate.
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wrote on 25 May 2020, 20:26 last edited by
Right. So sample bias in serology because serology test recipients were unlikely to be nursing home residents.
That’s a point, though even if every New Yorker over 75 was positive and unaccounted for in the serology sample that would bring us to 25% infection rate rather than 20%
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Right. So sample bias in serology because serology test recipients were unlikely to be nursing home residents.
That’s a point, though even if every New Yorker over 75 was positive and unaccounted for in the serology sample that would bring us to 25% infection rate rather than 20%
wrote on 25 May 2020, 20:48 last edited by LokiNYC deaths by age per100,000
Over 75 is greater than all the other categories combined by well (vastly) more than double.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109867/coronavirus-death-rates-by-age-new-york-city/
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wrote on 25 May 2020, 20:55 last edited by
In NYC you were almost 100 times as likely to die if you were over 75 than under 44.
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wrote on 25 May 2020, 21:04 last edited by
@Loki said in CDC revises fatality rate:
NYC deaths by age per100,000
Over 75 is greater than all the other categories combined by well (vastly) more than double.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109867/coronavirus-death-rates-by-age-new-york-city/
That link implies 16500 total deaths in nyc rather than 21000. (196/100000)*8400000 = 16500