CDC revises fatality rate
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“My model of heat dissipation in ceramic tiles is correct. I don’t know what happened in the sky above Cape Canaveral. Must be some kind of anomaly.”
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Hey, not saying they were right or not, just pointing out that they came to similar results.
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It would be nice to know how they came up with these numbers. Presumably the numbers were crunched at the CDC by people qualified to crunch them. I find it nearly as difficult to believe that those people would have made obvious blunders, as I find the results themselves.
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@Mik said in CDC revises fatality rate:
I don't trust much of any numbers analysis I read about this right now. The numbers ignore the human cost entirely. If we just let it run rampant we may as well just euthanize our elderly population in group settings.
Regardless of framings like this, the question of what a society should do in response to covid does not boil down to whether a society cares about the lives of its citizens, elderly or otherwise.
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@Horace said in CDC revises fatality rate:
It would be nice to know how they came up with these numbers. Presumably the numbers were crunched at the CDC by people qualified to crunch them. I find it nearly as difficult to believe that those people would have made obvious blunders, as I find the results themselves.
I don’t see how any amount of credentialing can bridge the gap between that estimate and the reality of NYC.
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21k deaths in a population of 8.4MM with a 20% serology result that suffered from selection bias.
You’d have to make a pretty drastic change to those numbers to get consistent with their estimate
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Remember the CDC shows death modeling at 65+. We know several states have 70%+ mortality from nursing homes where the average age is 80+.
I believe that younger people don’t generally die of this and that includes the vast vast majority of those under 60.
To say the CDC is dead wrong is fascinating to me.
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At the end of this, we will find (IMO of course) that the most prevalent misleading numbers we were all fed will be the death count at the beginning of the pandemic where lots of folk clinging to life are pushed over the edge by Covid. Using that number to extrapolate much about the severity of the virus amongst those not clinging to life, is a non sequitur that will be seen to have been used over and over both scientifically and of course rhetorically.
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@Horace said in CDC revises fatality rate:
At the end of this, we will find (IMO of course) that the most prevalent misleading numbers we were all fed will be the death count at the beginning of the pandemic where lots of folk clinging to life are pushed over the edge by Covid. Using that number to extrapolate much about the severity of the virus amongst those not clinging to life, is a non sequitur that will be seen to have been used over and over both scientifically and of course rhetorically.
I agree but when it comes out the argument will be that it is the past and therefore irrelevant. It will become whadaboutism.
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@Loki said in CDC revises fatality rate:
To say the CDC is dead wrong is fascinating to me.
Of the dozens of threads where we hammer on the faults of official models, why does this one fascinate you so?
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@Horace said in CDC revises fatality rate:
It doesn't seem drastically different from their estimate for CFR in the elderly. Of that 21k, what is the age breakdown?
Even if 100% of cases (not deaths) were over 65, it would still be double their estimate.
