Jesus... who do you believe?

[Improviso]

Inflation... Fed tapering/rate hikes... yada yada yada. Who knows???

[xenon]

Depends on which effect is stronger.

The rate hikes should tamp down inflation - but will depress stocks. Inflation, on its own, will tend to inflate stock prices.

[Doctor Phibes]

These guys spend half their lives telling us what is going to happen, and the other half explaining why it didn't.

[kluurs]

The answer to the question is "yes."

[Doctor Phibes]

@kluurs said in Jesus... who do you believe?:

The answer to the question is "yes."

or possibly "no".

[Jolly]

Inflation, if figured by 1980 standards, will be 15% this year. There can be no Volkman approach, because the economy wouldn't even generate a dead cat bounce if interest rates were raised enough to tamp down the inflation.

I darn sure would stay out of the bond market, and a lot of NASDAQ-type growth stocks. And I'm not going the cryptocurrency route.

Blue chips, gold, real estate, at least for me.

[xenon]

@jolly said in Jesus... who do you believe?:

gold

Gold confuses me. It's supposed to be your classic inflation hedge. I was going to buy some earlier this year - but didn't because I couldn't see a pattern.

It's actually down from where it was in Dec/Jan.

[Doctor Phibes]

If there's one thing I've learned in the last 15 or so years, it's don't come here for financial advice

[Horace]

@doctor-phibes said in Jesus... who do you believe?:

If there's one thing I've learned in the last 15 or so years, it's don't come here for financial advice

I was pumping apple here three years ago when it was trading at $37 (split adjusted), now it's $178.

[Doctor Phibes]

@horace said in Jesus... who do you believe?:

@doctor-phibes said in Jesus... who do you believe?:

If there's one thing I've learned in the last 15 or so years, it's don't come here for financial advice

I was pumping apple here three years ago when it was trading at $37 (split adjusted), now it's $178.

Sure, and other people would be saying 'DON'T INVEST IN STOCKS, WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!!!'

[Horace]

It's perennial advice to stay away from tech stocks, but it's also historically bad advice, but for the tech bubble where unprofitable companies did what any unprofitable company always does, go bankrupt.

[Improviso]

Heh... S&P 500 just closed at an all-time high.

[Horace]

@improviso said in Jesus... who do you believe?:

Heh... S&P 500 just closed at an all-time high.

So did juggernaut AAPL! AAPL has around 5x gains since 12/10/2018. S&P has around 2x gains. So much for how hard it is to beat the market... if one chooses a solid stock, accepts risk, and concentrates ones money.

[Improviso]

Never owned any apple products. Never liked their closed architecture policy.

But I did own AAPL some time ago. Paid for my pool with the profits. The grandkids LOVE it. It was worth it to me.