Omicron variant: Move over, Delta

[LuFins Dad]

@aqua-letifer said in Omicron variant: Move over, Delta:

@lufins-dad said in Omicron variant: Move over, Delta:

But the total hospitalizations are still about the same proportion to new cases as they were a year ago…

1. What's the scope of that number? In VA? America? The world? In what range is it the same?
2. Do you know if the barrier to entry in hospitals has changed at all in your selected area at that time?
3. Has the way hospitals keep track of those numbers changed at all? How about the number of new cases? (Again, in your chosen area.)
4. Has the virus changed at all?
5. Have the percentage of vaccinations per population changed at all? (Again, for your chosen area.)

Spoiler: none of those things are the same as in 2020. None. So either nothing we do means anything and it's time for Radical Nihilism, or your belief that those proportions have stayed the same for your given population base is happenstance.

I’m leaning towards the Nihilism as far as COVID is concerned.

[Aqua Letifer]

@lufins-dad said in Omicron variant: Move over, Delta:

@aqua-letifer said in Omicron variant: Move over, Delta:

@lufins-dad said in Omicron variant: Move over, Delta:

But the total hospitalizations are still about the same proportion to new cases as they were a year ago…

1. What's the scope of that number? In VA? America? The world? In what range is it the same?
2. Do you know if the barrier to entry in hospitals has changed at all in your selected area at that time?
3. Has the way hospitals keep track of those numbers changed at all? How about the number of new cases? (Again, in your chosen area.)
4. Has the virus changed at all?
5. Have the percentage of vaccinations per population changed at all? (Again, for your chosen area.)

Spoiler: none of those things are the same as in 2020. None. So either nothing we do means anything and it's time for Radical Nihilism, or your belief that those proportions have stayed the same for your given population base is happenstance.

I’m leaning towards the Nihilism as far as COVID is concerned.

It's really not true, though. This is a case of empirical evidence leading you to false conclusions.

[George K]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/s-africa-says-hospitalizations-in-omicron-wave-much-lower

South Africa delivered some positive news on the omicron coronavirus variant on Friday, reporting a much lower rate of hospital admissions and signs that the wave of infections may be peaking.

Only 1.7% of identified Covid-19 cases were admitted to hospital in the second week of infections in the fourth wave, compared with 19% in the same week of the third delta-driven wave, South African Health Minister Joe Phaahla said at a press conference.

Health officials presented evidence that the strain may be milder, and that infections may already be peaking in the country’s most populous province, Gauteng.

Still, new cases in that week of the current wave were more than 20,000 a day, compared with 4,400 in the same week of the third wave. That’s further evidence of omicron’s rapid transmissibility, which a number of other countries, such as the U.K., are also now experiencing.

South Africa, which announced the discovery of the variant on Nov. 25, is being watched as a harbinger of what may happen with omicron elsewhere.

Scientists have cautioned that other nations may have a different experience to South Africa as the country’s population is young compared with developed nations. Between 70% and 80% of citizens may also have had a prior Covid-19 infection, according to antibody surveys, meaning they could have some level of protection.

Currently there are about 7,600 people with Covid-19 in South African hospitals, about 40% of the peak in the second and third waves. Excess deaths, a measure of the number of deaths against a historical average, are just below 2,000 a week, an eighth of their previous peak.

“We are really seeing very small increases in the number of deaths,” said Michelle Groome, head of health surveillance for the country’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases.

[George K]

[taiwan_girl]

@george-k said in Omicron variant: Move over, Delta:

Excellent news if that is the true case!!!!

[Jolly]

This post is deleted!

[George K]

Denmark:

[George K]

South Africa:

[Copper]

What goes up, must come down.

Flatten 'em

[George K]

@copper said in Omicron variant: Move over, Delta:

What goes up, must come down.

Flatten 'em

"We have two weeks to flatten the curve."

[George K]

[Copper]

The flattening is off by roughly 90 degrees.