Welcome, Delta?
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One in 5,000
The C.D.C. reported a terrifying fact in July: Vaccinated people with the Delta variant of the Covid virus carried roughly the same viral load in their noses and throats as unvaccinated people.
The news seemed to suggest that even the vaccinated were highly vulnerable to getting infected and passing the virus to others. Sure enough, stories about vaccinated people getting Covid — so-called breakthrough infections — were all around this summer: at a party in Provincetown, Mass.; among the Chicago Cubs; on Capitol Hill. Delta seemed as if it might be changing everything.
In recent weeks, however, more data has become available, and it suggests that the true picture is less alarming. Yes, Delta has increased the chances of getting Covid for almost everyone. But if you’re vaccinated, a Covid infection is still uncommon, and those high viral loads are not as worrisome as they initially sounded.
How small are the chances of the average vaccinated American contracting Covid? Probably about one in 5,000 per day, and even lower for people who take precautions or live in a highly vaccinated community.
Or maybe one in 10,000
The estimates here are based on statistics from three places that have reported detailed data on Covid infections by vaccination status: Utah; Virginia; and King County, which includes Seattle, in Washington state. All three are consistent with the idea that about one in 5,000 vaccinated Americans have tested positive for Covid each day in recent weeks.
The chances are surely higher in the places with the worst Covid outbreaks, like the Southeast. And in places with many fewer cases — like the Northeast, as well as the Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco areas — the chances are lower, probably less than 1 in 10,000. That’s what the Seattle data shows, for example. (These numbers don’t include undiagnosed cases, which are often so mild that people do not notice them and do not pass the virus to anyone else.)
Here’s one way to think about a one-in-10,000 daily chance: It would take more than three months for the combined risk to reach just 1 percent.
“There’s been a lot of miscommunication about what the risks really are to vaccinated people, and how vaccinated people should be thinking about their lives,” as Dr. Ashish Jha of Brown University told my colleague Tara Parker-Pope. (I recommend Tara’s recent Q. and A. on breakthrough infections.)
For the unvaccinated, of course, the chances of infection are far higher, as Dr. Jeffrey Duchin, the top public-health official in Seattle, has noted. Those chances have also risen much more since Delta began spreading:
Source: Washington State Department of Health
Another way to understand the situation is to compare each state’s vaccination rate with its recent daily Covid infection rate. The infection rates in the least vaccinated states are about four times as high as in the most vaccinated states:
Data as of Sept. 2; cases are the 7-day daily average.The New York Times
If the entire country had received shots at the same rate as the Northeast or California, the current Delta wave would be a small fraction of its current size. Delta is a problem. Vaccine hesitancy is a bigger problem.
The science, in brief
These numbers help show why the talking point about viral loads was problematic. It was one of those statements that managed to be both true and misleading. Even when the size of the viral loads are similar, the virus behaves differently in the noses and throats of the vaccinated and the unvaccinated.In an unvaccinated person, a viral load is akin to an enemy army facing little resistance. In a vaccinated person, the human immune system launches a powerful response and tends to prevail quickly — often before the host body gets sick or infects others. That the viral loads were initially similar in size can end up being irrelevant.
I will confess to one bit of hesitation about walking you through the data on breakthrough infections: It’s not clear how much we should be worrying about them. For the vaccinated, Covid resembles the flu and usually a mild one. Society does not ground to a halt over the flu.
In Britain, many people have become comfortable with the current Covid risks. The vaccines make serious illness rare in adults, and the risks to young children are so low that Britain may never recommend that most receive the vaccine. Letting the virus continue to dominate life, on the other hand, has large costs.
“There’s a feeling that finally we can breathe; we can start trying to get back what we’ve lost,” Devi Sridhar, the head of the global public health program at the University of Edinburgh, told The Times.
I know that many Americans feel differently. Our level of Covid anxiety is higher, especially in communities that lean to the left politically. And there is no “correct” response to Covid. Different people respond to risk differently.
But at least one part of the American anxiety does seem to have become disconnected from the facts in recent weeks: the effectiveness of the vaccines. In a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, nearly half of adults judged their “risk of getting sick from the coronavirus” as either moderate or high — even though 75 percent of adults have received at least one shot.
In reality, the risks of getting any version of the virus remain small for the vaccinated, and the risks of getting badly sick remain minuscule.
In Seattle on an average recent day, about one out of every one million vaccinated residents have been admitted to a hospital with Covid symptoms. That risk is so close to zero that the human mind can’t easily process it. My best attempt is to say that the Covid risks for most vaccinated people are of the same order of magnitude as risks that people unthinkingly accept every day, like riding in a vehicle.
The bottom line
Delta really has changed the course of the pandemic. It is far more contagious than earlier versions of the virus and calls for precautions that were not necessary a couple of months ago, like wearing masks in some indoor situations.But even with Delta, the overall risks for the vaccinated remain extremely small. As Dr. Monica Gandhi, an infectious-disease specialist at the University of California, San Francisco, wrote on Friday, “The messaging over the last month in the U.S. has basically served to terrify the vaccinated and make unvaccinated eligible adults doubt the effectiveness of the vaccines.” Neither of those views is warranted.
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We're a hotspot. I've seen more breakthrough infections, especially serious ones, than his data might suggest.
The flipside of the vaccination argument is the natural immunity argument. Down here, as in Florida and Texas, we should be approaching a population where a lot of people have had the disease.
At what point does this population become resistant to infection surges?
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It’s difficult to know what information to trust and sadly that depends a lot on the viewpoint of the authors.
What I know is a couple we know, both vaccinated, were both hospitalized. He died. Bit too close to home for me to ignore, especially when my last test showed no antibodies.
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It’s difficult to know what information to trust and sadly that depends a lot on the viewpoint of the authors.
What I know is a couple we know, both vaccinated, were both hospitalized. He died. Bit too close to home for me to ignore, especially when my last test showed no antibodies.
@mik said in Welcome, Delta?:
It’s difficult to know what information to trust and sadly that depends a lot on the viewpoint of the authors.
What I know is a couple we know, both vaccinated, were both hospitalized. He died. Bit too close to home for me to ignore, especially when my last test showed no antibodies.
Actually get the vaccine and mask up where asked is best practice. It’s remarkable how close to pre-covid your life can get when you do that.
The vaccinated getting into trouble in big numbers is not showing up in the data and the datasets are the largest ever in the history of any study ever.
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@george-k said in Welcome, Delta?:
One in 5,000
The C.D.C. reported a terrifying fact in July: Vaccinated people with the Delta variant of the Covid virus carried roughly the same viral load in their noses and throats as unvaccinated people.
The news seemed to suggest that even the vaccinated were highly vulnerable to getting infected and passing the virus to others. Sure enough, stories about vaccinated people getting Covid — so-called breakthrough infections — were all around this summer: at a party in Provincetown, Mass.; among the Chicago Cubs; on Capitol Hill. Delta seemed as if it might be changing everything.
In recent weeks, however, more data has become available, and it suggests that the true picture is less alarming. Yes, Delta has increased the chances of getting Covid for almost everyone. But if you’re vaccinated, a Covid infection is still uncommon, and those high viral loads are not as worrisome as they initially sounded.
How small are the chances of the average vaccinated American contracting Covid? Probably about one in 5,000 per day, and even lower for people who take precautions or live in a highly vaccinated community.
Or maybe one in 10,000
The estimates here are based on statistics from three places that have reported detailed data on Covid infections by vaccination status: Utah; Virginia; and King County, which includes Seattle, in Washington state. All three are consistent with the idea that about one in 5,000 vaccinated Americans have tested positive for Covid each day in recent weeks.
The chances are surely higher in the places with the worst Covid outbreaks, like the Southeast. And in places with many fewer cases — like the Northeast, as well as the Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco areas — the chances are lower, probably less than 1 in 10,000. That’s what the Seattle data shows, for example. (These numbers don’t include undiagnosed cases, which are often so mild that people do not notice them and do not pass the virus to anyone else.)
Here’s one way to think about a one-in-10,000 daily chance: It would take more than three months for the combined risk to reach just 1 percent.
“There’s been a lot of miscommunication about what the risks really are to vaccinated people, and how vaccinated people should be thinking about their lives,” as Dr. Ashish Jha of Brown University told my colleague Tara Parker-Pope. (I recommend Tara’s recent Q. and A. on breakthrough infections.)
For the unvaccinated, of course, the chances of infection are far higher, as Dr. Jeffrey Duchin, the top public-health official in Seattle, has noted. Those chances have also risen much more since Delta began spreading:
Source: Washington State Department of Health
Another way to understand the situation is to compare each state’s vaccination rate with its recent daily Covid infection rate. The infection rates in the least vaccinated states are about four times as high as in the most vaccinated states:Data as of Sept. 2; cases are the 7-day daily average.The New York Times
If the entire country had received shots at the same rate as the Northeast or California, the current Delta wave would be a small fraction of its current size. Delta is a problem. Vaccine hesitancy is a bigger problem.
The science, in brief
These numbers help show why the talking point about viral loads was problematic. It was one of those statements that managed to be both true and misleading. Even when the size of the viral loads are similar, the virus behaves differently in the noses and throats of the vaccinated and the unvaccinated.In an unvaccinated person, a viral load is akin to an enemy army facing little resistance. In a vaccinated person, the human immune system launches a powerful response and tends to prevail quickly — often before the host body gets sick or infects others. That the viral loads were initially similar in size can end up being irrelevant.
I will confess to one bit of hesitation about walking you through the data on breakthrough infections: It’s not clear how much we should be worrying about them. For the vaccinated, Covid resembles the flu and usually a mild one. Society does not ground to a halt over the flu.
In Britain, many people have become comfortable with the current Covid risks. The vaccines make serious illness rare in adults, and the risks to young children are so low that Britain may never recommend that most receive the vaccine. Letting the virus continue to dominate life, on the other hand, has large costs.
“There’s a feeling that finally we can breathe; we can start trying to get back what we’ve lost,” Devi Sridhar, the head of the global public health program at the University of Edinburgh, told The Times.
I know that many Americans feel differently. Our level of Covid anxiety is higher, especially in communities that lean to the left politically. And there is no “correct” response to Covid. Different people respond to risk differently.
But at least one part of the American anxiety does seem to have become disconnected from the facts in recent weeks: the effectiveness of the vaccines. In a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, nearly half of adults judged their “risk of getting sick from the coronavirus” as either moderate or high — even though 75 percent of adults have received at least one shot.
In reality, the risks of getting any version of the virus remain small for the vaccinated, and the risks of getting badly sick remain minuscule.
In Seattle on an average recent day, about one out of every one million vaccinated residents have been admitted to a hospital with Covid symptoms. That risk is so close to zero that the human mind can’t easily process it. My best attempt is to say that the Covid risks for most vaccinated people are of the same order of magnitude as risks that people unthinkingly accept every day, like riding in a vehicle.
The bottom line
Delta really has changed the course of the pandemic. It is far more contagious than earlier versions of the virus and calls for precautions that were not necessary a couple of months ago, like wearing masks in some indoor situations.But even with Delta, the overall risks for the vaccinated remain extremely small. As Dr. Monica Gandhi, an infectious-disease specialist at the University of California, San Francisco, wrote on Friday, “The messaging over the last month in the U.S. has basically served to terrify the vaccinated and make unvaccinated eligible adults doubt the effectiveness of the vaccines.” Neither of those views is warranted.
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Yesterday there were 76,000,000 new cases of COVID. Actually, that’s incorrect. There were 76,000 new positive tests as some states report multiple positives for their existing patients. The population is 335,000,000. That means the odds of catching COVID yesterday was 1 in 4,406 for ALL people, vaccinated or not. Is 1 in 5,000 all that much better?
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Just like with the vaccinated, if an unvaccinated individual lives in an area with low transmission and takes proper precautions then the odds are even further.
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Don’t forget that most breakthrough cases were n the US don’t get counted since the CDC does not count breakthroughs unless they pass a certain threshold of symptoms. So the transmission numbers for both sides are seriously flawed.
This cherry-picking of stats is not helping the cause at all.
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I don't like these statistical arguments much, they're a bit misleading.
What are your chances of dying today if you don't wear a seatbelt? Or smoke 40 cigarettes a day? These aren't very good arguments for not wearing seatbelts or smoking like a chimney.
I was only joking
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I don't like these statistical arguments much, they're a bit misleading.
What are your chances of dying today if you don't wear a seatbelt? Or smoke 40 cigarettes a day? These aren't very good arguments for not wearing seatbelts or smoking like a chimney.
@doctor-phibes said in Welcome, Delta?:
I don't like these statistical arguments much, they're a bit misleading.
What are your chances of dying today if you don't wear a seatbelt? Or smoke 40 cigarettes a day? These aren't very good arguments for not wearing seatbelts or smoking like a chimney.
Did you know that 80% of car accidents occur within 5 miles of your home? You should probably move…
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The fight is over. I’ll keep commenting to give you an audience but nobody is listening to fringe stuff anymore.
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The fight is over. I’ll keep commenting to give you an audience but nobody is listening to fringe stuff anymore.
@loki What’s fringe about pointing out the numbers?
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@loki What’s fringe about pointing out the numbers?
@lufins-dad said in Welcome, Delta?:
@loki What’s fringe about pointing out the numbers?
Why not just share the point of view you are coming from? My perception is that you want the vaccine hesitant to be right somehow. If I am wrong about that I apologize, it’s just a guess.
If it is your point of view, i can tell you that less and less people are listening.
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The fight is over. I’ll keep commenting to give you an audience but nobody is listening to fringe stuff anymore.
@loki said in Welcome, Delta?:
nobody is listening to fringe stuff anymore.
Seriously? I think plenty of people are listening. You couldn't be more pro-vaccination than I am, but I think there are plenty of people who are anything but.
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@loki said in Welcome, Delta?:
nobody is listening to fringe stuff anymore.
Seriously? I think plenty of people are listening. You couldn't be more pro-vaccination than I am, but I think there are plenty of people who are anything but.
@doctor-phibes said in Welcome, Delta?:
@loki said in Welcome, Delta?:
nobody is listening to fringe stuff anymore.
Seriously? I think plenty of people are listening. You couldn't be more pro-vaccination than I am, but I think there are plenty of people who are anything but.
Loki is feeling less paranoia for whatever reason (probably just a natural waning as he grows accustomed to the new threat in the environment), and explains it with the hand-waved notion that there really is less anti-vax opinion out there.
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@doctor-phibes said in Welcome, Delta?:
@loki said in Welcome, Delta?:
nobody is listening to fringe stuff anymore.
Seriously? I think plenty of people are listening. You couldn't be more pro-vaccination than I am, but I think there are plenty of people who are anything but.
Loki is feeling less paranoia for whatever reason (probably just a natural waning as he grows accustomed to the new threat in the environment), and explains it with the hand-waved notion that there really is less anti-vax opinion out there.
@horace said in Welcome, Delta?:
@doctor-phibes said in Welcome, Delta?:
@loki said in Welcome, Delta?:
nobody is listening to fringe stuff anymore.
Seriously? I think plenty of people are listening. You couldn't be more pro-vaccination than I am, but I think there are plenty of people who are anything but.
Loki is feeling less paranoia for whatever reason (probably just a natural waning as he grows accustomed to the new threat in the environment), and explains it with the hand-waved notion that there really is less anti-vax opinion out there.
Well you are right that I am less paranoid about the economy which was always the driver of my thoughts from day 1.
But also I wondered if people on either side would move off their partisan positions. And the answer is no. It’s just frustrating that conservatives having chosen to put their money on the losing side of this. Imagine being an investor and betting on ivermectin vs vaccine for example. hopefully folks don’t invest they way they think about politics.
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@horace said in Welcome, Delta?:
@doctor-phibes said in Welcome, Delta?:
@loki said in Welcome, Delta?:
nobody is listening to fringe stuff anymore.
Seriously? I think plenty of people are listening. You couldn't be more pro-vaccination than I am, but I think there are plenty of people who are anything but.
Loki is feeling less paranoia for whatever reason (probably just a natural waning as he grows accustomed to the new threat in the environment), and explains it with the hand-waved notion that there really is less anti-vax opinion out there.
Well you are right that I am less paranoid about the economy which was always the driver of my thoughts from day 1.
But also I wondered if people on either side would move off their partisan positions. And the answer is no. It’s just frustrating that conservatives having chosen to put their money on the losing side of this. Imagine being an investor and betting on ivermectin vs vaccine for example. hopefully folks don’t invest they way they think about politics.
@loki said in Welcome, Delta?:
@horace said in Welcome, Delta?:
@doctor-phibes said in Welcome, Delta?:
@loki said in Welcome, Delta?:
nobody is listening to fringe stuff anymore.
Seriously? I think plenty of people are listening. You couldn't be more pro-vaccination than I am, but I think there are plenty of people who are anything but.
Loki is feeling less paranoia for whatever reason (probably just a natural waning as he grows accustomed to the new threat in the environment), and explains it with the hand-waved notion that there really is less anti-vax opinion out there.
Well you are right that I am less paranoid about the economy which was always the driver of my thoughts from day 1.
But also I wondered if people on either side would move off their partisan positions. And the answer is no. It’s just frustrating that conservatives having chosen to put their money on the losing side of this. Imagine being an investor and betting on ivermectin vs vaccine for example. hopefully folks don’t invest they way they think about politics.
Pure fear has always been your driver. The economy is secondary
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@loki said in Welcome, Delta?:
@horace said in Welcome, Delta?:
@doctor-phibes said in Welcome, Delta?:
@loki said in Welcome, Delta?:
nobody is listening to fringe stuff anymore.
Seriously? I think plenty of people are listening. You couldn't be more pro-vaccination than I am, but I think there are plenty of people who are anything but.
Loki is feeling less paranoia for whatever reason (probably just a natural waning as he grows accustomed to the new threat in the environment), and explains it with the hand-waved notion that there really is less anti-vax opinion out there.
Well you are right that I am less paranoid about the economy which was always the driver of my thoughts from day 1.
But also I wondered if people on either side would move off their partisan positions. And the answer is no. It’s just frustrating that conservatives having chosen to put their money on the losing side of this. Imagine being an investor and betting on ivermectin vs vaccine for example. hopefully folks don’t invest they way they think about politics.
Pure fear has always been your driver. The economy is secondary
@jolly said in Welcome, Delta?:
@loki said in Welcome, Delta?:
@horace said in Welcome, Delta?:
@doctor-phibes said in Welcome, Delta?:
@loki said in Welcome, Delta?:
nobody is listening to fringe stuff anymore.
Seriously? I think plenty of people are listening. You couldn't be more pro-vaccination than I am, but I think there are plenty of people who are anything but.
Loki is feeling less paranoia for whatever reason (probably just a natural waning as he grows accustomed to the new threat in the environment), and explains it with the hand-waved notion that there really is less anti-vax opinion out there.
Well you are right that I am less paranoid about the economy which was always the driver of my thoughts from day 1.
But also I wondered if people on either side would move off their partisan positions. And the answer is no. It’s just frustrating that conservatives having chosen to put their money on the losing side of this. Imagine being an investor and betting on ivermectin vs vaccine for example. hopefully folks don’t invest they way they think about politics.
Pure fear has always been your driver. The economy is secondary
Ok. You might be right but it’s the first time anyone in my life has said that to me or about me.
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The economy isn't in nearly as bad a state as I'd feared back in March 2020.
I remember Loki was pretty anti-lockdown back in the day - which is an economy-guided opinion.
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@horace said in Welcome, Delta?:
@doctor-phibes said in Welcome, Delta?:
@loki said in Welcome, Delta?:
nobody is listening to fringe stuff anymore.
Seriously? I think plenty of people are listening. You couldn't be more pro-vaccination than I am, but I think there are plenty of people who are anything but.
Loki is feeling less paranoia for whatever reason (probably just a natural waning as he grows accustomed to the new threat in the environment), and explains it with the hand-waved notion that there really is less anti-vax opinion out there.
Well you are right that I am less paranoid about the economy which was always the driver of my thoughts from day 1.
But also I wondered if people on either side would move off their partisan positions. And the answer is no. It’s just frustrating that conservatives having chosen to put their money on the losing side of this. Imagine being an investor and betting on ivermectin vs vaccine for example. hopefully folks don’t invest they way they think about politics.
@loki said in Welcome, Delta?:
@horace said in Welcome, Delta?:
@doctor-phibes said in Welcome, Delta?:
@loki said in Welcome, Delta?:
nobody is listening to fringe stuff anymore.
Seriously? I think plenty of people are listening. You couldn't be more pro-vaccination than I am, but I think there are plenty of people who are anything but.
Loki is feeling less paranoia for whatever reason (probably just a natural waning as he grows accustomed to the new threat in the environment), and explains it with the hand-waved notion that there really is less anti-vax opinion out there.
Well you are right that I am less paranoid about the economy which was always the driver of my thoughts from day 1.
But also I wondered if people on either side would move off their partisan positions. And the answer is no. It’s just frustrating that conservatives having chosen to put their money on the losing side of this. Imagine being an investor and betting on ivermectin vs vaccine for example. hopefully folks don’t invest they way they think about politics.
If you want to argue against anti-vax conservatives, why don't you seek some out online and go argue with them? What's in it for you to whine to a bunch of people who don't fit that description but who you want to attack in effigy? What is wrong with you?
