The Pivot -- Afghanistan and the Three Global Powers

[Axtremus]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/afghanistan-u-s-withdrawal-china-russia-power-relations-11630421715

Op-ed on how the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, flawed in execution as it was, affects the other two powers: Russia and China. The themes seem to be:

1. An Afghanistan without the US as the stabilizing force is bad news to Russia and China -- they are, after all, closer to Afghanistan geographically. If shit spills over from Afghanistan, it will splash onto Russia and China before it hits US soil.
2. The US getting out of Afghanistan also means the US will free up more resources to deal China and Russia. This pivot by the USA from the Middle East to the Far East is also not good news for China and Russia.

[Aqua Letifer]

@axtremus said in The Pivot -- Afghanistan and the Three Global Powers:

If shit spills over from Afghanistan, it will splash onto Russia and China before it hits US soil.

Just like in 2001.

And anyway, it wasn't so much the idea of getting out as it was how we went about it.

[Catseye3]

@axtremus said in The Pivot -- Afghanistan and the Three Global Powers:

Thanks for the summation, Ax. I have questions.

I was paywalled out of the article. What do you think the writer meant by the "shit spilling over"? (Other than Taliban.) And how realistic are the concerns of China and Russia, taken together, over the Taliban?

I don't know how much treasure we've spent in Afghanistan, but I can't imagine it's more than a spit in the wind compared to what we would expend in/at China. Is freeing up those resources to deal with China and Russia a serious concern for them at this point in time? Seems like comparatively small beer.

As for the two spoxes' public reactions to the American withdrawal, well, my heavens, they wouldn't be enemies worth having if they didn't snark at our misfortunes, would they?

And as reactions go, they were pretty feeble, anyway.

The most interesting question: How specifically will "the war and the withdrawal affect the global balance of power"?

"The stunning meltdown of the U.S.’s Afghan client state marked the limits of American hard power." What did s/he mean by "hard power"?

[Jolly]

@axtremus said in The Pivot -- Afghanistan and the Three Global Powers:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/afghanistan-u-s-withdrawal-china-russia-power-relations-11630421715

Op-ed on how the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, flawed in execution as it was, affects the other two powers: Russia and China. The themes seem to be:

1. An Afghanistan without the US as the stabilizing force is bad news to Russia and China -- they are, after all, closer to Afghanistan geographically. If shit spills over from Afghanistan, it will splash onto Russia and China before it hits US soil.
2. The US getting out of Afghanistan also means the US will free up more resources to deal China and Russia. This pivot by the USA from the Middle East to the Far East is also not good news for China and Russia.

Well, if it's such bad news for them, they should have quit feeding the Taliban intel.

[Renauda]

Read this:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/09/01/forget-schadenfreude-what-does-the-kremlin-really-think-about-afghanistan-a74937

[Mik]

Yep. The last thing Russia needs is yet another Islamic fundamentalist government on their border, and near the other 'stans.

[Catseye3]

@renauda said in The Pivot -- Afghanistan and the Three Global Powers:

Read this:

Thanks, Renauda. For me very informative. And very interesting! What a mare's nest for Russia. They'll have their hands full. You have to wonder if a more honest reaction to the US withdrawal is mixed rather than joyous; at least the Taliban were too busy to give the Russians much grief when we were there.

But that may be naive on my part.