China smiled
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For 20 years, the United States’ presence in Afghanistan, though not always appreciated, has nevertheless served as a predictable and stabilizing force. Now, the prospect of renewed Taliban rule has sparked major anxiety among the region’s powers. For example, earlier this month, Indian Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar visited Moscow and Tehran while Taliban representatives were in each city, raising questions about whether back-channel negotiations are ongoing. Moscow is preparing to leverage the six-nation Collective Security Treaty Organization to address potential trouble at the Afghan-Tajik border, which is being taken over by the Taliban on the Afghan side. As Pakistan’s relations with the Afghan government rapidly unravel, Islamabad appears to have negotiated a quid pro quo with the Taliban to reject U.S. bases on Pakistani territory in exchange for the Taliban’s assistance in combating Pakistan’s own Taliban-style militants, the organization known as Tehrik-i-Taliban. Meanwhile, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, an economic and security grouping comprising China, India, Pakistan, Russia, and four Central Asian states, met last week with future Afghan stability at the top of their agenda.
Amid all of this regional angst, China is quietly attempting to secure its interests in post-U.S. Afghanistan. Beijing has reportedly been actively engaging with Kabul on construction of the Peshawar-Kabul motorway, which would connect Pakistan to Afghanistan and make Kabul a participant in China’s massive infrastructure and investment plan, the Belt and Road Initiative. Up until now, Kabul has resisted participation in the initiative to avoid getting on the wrong side of Washington. Beijing is also building a major road through the Wakhan Corridor—a slim strip of mountainous territory connecting China’s westernmost province of Xinjiang to Afghanistan—and onward to Pakistan and Central Asia, complementing its existing road network through the region. Once completed, these new thoroughfares should enable Beijing to pursue its goals of increased trade with the region and natural resource extraction in Afghanistan. According to a 2014 report, Afghanistan may possess nearly a trillion dollars’ worth of extractable rare-earth metals locked within its mountains.
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I don't think they are going to enjoy serving under their new Chinese masters. The Belt & Road initiative is more like Rape & Plunder, albeit in a very modern, sophisticated way.
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Yes.
The Afghanis understand cruelty. The Chinese can match them and out do them if necessary. The Chinese are also unscrupulous and very good at business...They will make sure the right people get rich, as long as they get what they want.
They also have another advantage...They own the Pakistanis. The Taliban has no refuge to run to.
As long as the Chinese are making money and exploiting resources, they'll be there. When it becomes too expensive, they'll leave.
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@mik said in China smiled:
Chinese interests in Afghanistan are much more practical and commercial than ours were,
. We were foolish in that respect. It will become again a failed narco state to be expoited for its resources. China will turn a blind eye to the opium farming.To be honest, Afghanistan had one if it's biggest opium crops in years recently. We're also guilty, and have been since Obama.
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Really interesting comments.
As far as China and Pakistan go I believe China has a ton invested in Pakistan for their BRI and any instability created by the Taliban in Pakistan could be a big problem for China in Pakistan. As in could the project stay on course and where would the payments due come from.
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@george-k said in China smiled:
Afghanistan may possess nearly a trillion dollars’ worth of extractable rare-earth metals locked within its mountains.
The Taliban now controls one of the world’s biggest lithium deposits
When Taliban fighters entered Kabul on Aug. 15, they didn’t just seize control of the Afghan government. They also gained the ability to control access to huge deposits of minerals that are crucial to the global clean energy economy.
In 2010, an internal US Department of Defense memo called Afghanistan “the Saudi Arabia of lithium,” after American geologists discovered the vast extent of the country’s mineral wealth, valued at at least $1 trillion. The silvery metal is essential for electric vehicles and renewable energy batteries.
Ten years later, thanks to conflict, corruption, and bureaucratic dysfunction, those resources remain almost entirely untapped. And as the US looks to disentangle its clean energy supply chains from China, the world’s top lithium producer, to have Afghanistan’s minerals under Taliban control is a severe blow to American economic interests.
“The Taliban is now sitting on some of the most important strategic minerals in the world,” said Rod Schoonover, head of the ecological security program at the Center for Strategic Risks, a Washington think tank. “Whether they can/will utilize them will be an important question going forward.”
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Does Hunter know any Taliban war lords?