Napkin Calculations - MD's Wave 5
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This is new cases/day, by the way.
Based on MD's current vaccination percentage and the presumption that current vaccines are 67% effective against Delta, my guess is that this wave won't get above 1,575 cases per day.
Total guess. I hope it's a lot less and worry about if it's more.
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I may be wrong, but I think we're beyond counting the number of cases. No question the delta variant is more easily transmitted, and, in unvaccinated people, probably has serious (though not as bad as the original) consequences.
Secondly, how often are these "cases" translating to serious illness and hospitalizations? As @loki pointed out a few days ago, we probably won't know until October. Just because you test "positive" doesn't mean you have COVID - it means you're carrying the virus, and you can potentially be a hazard to others. We had many discussions about asymptomatic transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the last year.
Is this another example of this?
Certainly an uptick, and certainly of concern.
If you look at Great Britain, cases are on the rise, but deaths remain low.
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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@george-k said in Napkin Calculations - MD's Wave 5:
I may be wrong, but I think we're beyond counting the number of cases.
Cases are way ahead of hospitalizations for MD right now. It's the only thing we can really track with this particular wave. But yeah I agree with you.
Napkin calculations. Preliminary ones at that.
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@george-k said in Napkin Calculations - MD's Wave 5:
I may be wrong, but I think we're beyond counting the number of cases. No question the delta variant is more easily transmitted, and, in unvaccinated people, probably has serious (though not as bad as the original) consequences.
Secondly, how often are these "cases" translating to serious illness and hospitalizations? As @loki pointed out a few days ago, we probably won't know until October. Just because you test "positive" doesn't mean you have COVID - it means you're carrying the virus, and you can potentially be a hazard to others. We had many discussions about asymptomatic transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the last year.
Is this another example of this?
Certainly an uptick, and certainly of concern.
If you look at Great Britain, cases are on the rise, but deaths remain low.
You're not wrong.
We're seeing some very serious cases, but we're also seeing a lot that aren't. The difference between right now and fifteen months ago, is the sheer volume of testing being done. It's producing positives in cases we wouldn't even have bothered with in the earlier days when resources were scarce.
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