Cheney?
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@taiwan_girl said in Cheney?:
President Trump did not mainly win in 2016 because people liked him. They just disliked Secretary Clinton more.
I thought previously you said that people didn't vote for Trump because of policy, but because they fell under the sway of his cult of personality, and his policies didn't matter.
@taiwan_girl said in Cheney?:
President Trump did not mainly win in 2016 because people liked him. They just disliked Secretary Clinton more.
I thought previously you said that people didn't vote for Trump because of policy, but because they fell under the sway of his cult of personality, and his policies didn't matter.
Don’t know if I said exactly that, but maybe something similar.
I think I said something like there is a certain percent of population that will vote for a certain party regardless of who’s running. Maybe it is 30 to 40% for each side. That leaves you 30 to 40% of the population that you really need to win over.
In 2016, The majority of that 30 or 40% remaining voted for President Trump, not necessarily because they liked his policies, but because they disliked Secretary Clinton.
In 2020, President Trump still got that 30 to 40% of the people who will vote for him no matter what, President Biden got that 30-40% of the people will vote for him no matter what.
Of the remainder, the majority went for president Biden. As in 2016, a lot of them voted for the candidate they disliked the least.
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Gimmee double-digit inflation, a housing market bust and a drop in the market...I could see people putting Trump back in...
Gimmee double-digit inflation, a housing market bust and a drop in the market...I could see people putting Trump back in...
I agree. The person in office has the advantage, and if things remain equal, in person in office will win. The opponent can’t be just “as good”, they have to appear to be better.
PResident Trump should have won easily in 2020. However Covid, and his handling of it, caused him to lose.
If Things kind of cruise along for the next 3 1/2 years, the way they’ve done the first six months, President Biden will win again. However, if there are major problems like you mention above, or an emergency situation that no one predicts that is handled poorly by President Biden, then of course that is an opening for the opponent, even President Trump.
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@taiwan_girl said in Cheney?:
President Trump did not mainly win in 2016 because people liked him. They just disliked Secretary Clinton more.
I thought previously you said that people didn't vote for Trump because of policy, but because they fell under the sway of his cult of personality, and his policies didn't matter.
Don’t know if I said exactly that, but maybe something similar.
I think I said something like there is a certain percent of population that will vote for a certain party regardless of who’s running. Maybe it is 30 to 40% for each side. That leaves you 30 to 40% of the population that you really need to win over.
In 2016, The majority of that 30 or 40% remaining voted for President Trump, not necessarily because they liked his policies, but because they disliked Secretary Clinton.
In 2020, President Trump still got that 30 to 40% of the people who will vote for him no matter what, President Biden got that 30-40% of the people will vote for him no matter what.
Of the remainder, the majority went for president Biden. As in 2016, a lot of them voted for the candidate they disliked the least.
@taiwan_girl said in Cheney?:
I think I said something like there is a certain percent of population that will vote for a certain party regardless of who’s running
It's a far jump from there to think that the name of the party matters, but policy and messaging do not. Anybody with strong opinions about the policies and messaging of Republicans vs Democrats will naturally tend to vote for one party consistently, especially in national or statewide elections. Such voting decisions are not inherently less well considered than decisions from those who have no strong opinions about the relative value of the two parties, and find themselves switching back and forth based on their own value judgments.
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@taiwan_girl said in Cheney?:
I think I said something like there is a certain percent of population that will vote for a certain party regardless of who’s running
It's a far jump from there to think that the name of the party matters, but policy and messaging do not. Anybody with strong opinions about the policies and messaging of Republicans vs Democrats will naturally tend to vote for one party consistently, especially in national or statewide elections. Such voting decisions are not inherently less well considered than decisions from those who have no strong opinions about the relative value of the two parties, and find themselves switching back and forth based on their own value judgments.
@horace I somewhat disagree. I am guessing you can go back in history and find candidates from both sides who are so so far out of it. Yet, they will still get a fair number of votes. People will see that they are from a certain party, and don’t really care, or don’t understand what they really mean or stand for.
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@horace I somewhat disagree. I am guessing you can go back in history and find candidates from both sides who are so so far out of it. Yet, they will still get a fair number of votes. People will see that they are from a certain party, and don’t really care, or don’t understand what they really mean or stand for.
@taiwan_girl said in Cheney?:
@horace I somewhat disagree. I am guessing you can go back in history and find candidates from both sides who are so so far out of it.
Like, an avowed communist running as a Republican and getting the Republican vote? Do you guess that that happens?
Yet, they will still get a fair number of votes. People will see that they are from a certain party, and don’t really care, or don’t understand what they really mean or stand for.
Party is a very strong indicator of the direction of policy and messaging, as compared to the other party. It begins to break down as elections get more local and specific to local issues, but it holds very well for statewide or national elections.
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I realize that nothing is “black and white”. I understand that voters like Mik are out there.
BUT, there is a reason that President Trump is no longer the president.
Same as 2016, some % of people voted for President Trump because they didn’t like Secretary Clinton.
There’s a certain percentage of people who voted AGAINST a candidate rather than FOR a candidate.
President Trump created some pretty big divisions in the voters.. I just don’t see how having him as the continued head of the party is going to bring those people back.
In other words, why would someone who did not vote for him in 2020 vote for him in 2024?
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I realize that nothing is “black and white”. I understand that voters like Mik are out there.
BUT, there is a reason that President Trump is no longer the president.
Same as 2016, some % of people voted for President Trump because they didn’t like Secretary Clinton.
There’s a certain percentage of people who voted AGAINST a candidate rather than FOR a candidate.
President Trump created some pretty big divisions in the voters.. I just don’t see how having him as the continued head of the party is going to bring those people back.
In other words, why would someone who did not vote for him in 2020 vote for him in 2024?
@taiwan_girl said in Cheney?:
In other words, why would someone who did not vote for him in 2020 vote for him in 2024?
There's a strong chance he'll get more physically attractive after having gotten a good rest for four years. Beyond that, if the economy tanks under Biden, the population will have good memories of the strong economy we had under him (partially due to corporate friendly tax policies) and, buried somewhere, the realization that COVID took him down more than anything.
Presidents almost always win or lose by slim margins, but whomever wins seems to always cause people to draw sweeping generalizations about the whole country and its attitude. That's silly. A few people voted Obama then Trump, and that's why Trump won in 2016. A few people will have voted Biden, and will switch parties in 2024. It happens. But it doesn't indicate a sea change in political attitude of the whole country.
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@taiwan_girl said in Cheney?:
In other words, why would someone who did not vote for him in 2020 vote for him in 2024?
There's a strong chance he'll get more physically attractive after having gotten a good rest for four years. Beyond that, if the economy tanks under Biden, the population will have good memories of the strong economy we had under him (partially due to corporate friendly tax policies) and, buried somewhere, the realization that COVID took him down more than anything.
Presidents almost always win or lose by slim margins, but whomever wins seems to always cause people to draw sweeping generalizations about the whole country and its attitude. That's silly. A few people voted Obama then Trump, and that's why Trump won in 2016. A few people will have voted Biden, and will switch parties in 2024. It happens. But it doesn't indicate a sea change in political attitude of the whole country.
@horace I agree.
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The poll, which provides perhaps the starkest illustration yet of the political peril Cheney faces this year, shows Wyoming attorney Harriet Hageman garnering 56 percent of the vote to Cheney’s 26 percent in the GOP primary. A third Republican got 12 percent support, and just 6 percent are undecided.
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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This post is deleted!
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The poll, which provides perhaps the starkest illustration yet of the political peril Cheney faces this year, shows Wyoming attorney Harriet Hageman garnering 56 percent of the vote to Cheney’s 26 percent in the GOP primary. A third Republican got 12 percent support, and just 6 percent are undecided.
The poll, which provides perhaps the starkest illustration yet of the political peril Cheney faces this year, shows Wyoming attorney Harriet Hageman garnering 56 percent of the vote to Cheney’s 26 percent in the GOP primary. A third Republican got 12 percent support, and just 6 percent are undecided.
Wyoming. Has. Had. Enough.
