A Misleading C.D.C. Number
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https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/11/briefing/outdoor-covid-transmission-cdc-number.html
When the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released new guidelines last month for mask wearing, it announced that “less than 10 percent” of Covid-19 transmission was occurring outdoors. Media organizations repeated the statistic, and it quickly became a standard description of the frequency of outdoor transmission.
But the number is almost certainly misleading.
It appears to be based partly on a misclassification of some Covid transmission that actually took place in enclosed spaces (as I explain below). An even bigger issue is the extreme caution of C.D.C. officials, who picked a benchmark — 10 percent — so high that nobody could reasonably dispute it.
That benchmark “seems to be a huge exaggeration,” as Dr. Muge Cevik, a virologist at the University of St. Andrews, said. In truth, the share of transmission that has occurred outdoors seems to be below 1 percent and may be below 0.1 percent, multiple epidemiologists told me. The rare outdoor transmission that has happened almost all seems to have involved crowded places or close conversation.
Saying that less than 10 percent of Covid transmission occurs outdoors is akin to saying that sharks attack fewer than 20,000 swimmers a year. (The actual worldwide number is around 150.) It’s both true and deceiving.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/11/briefing/outdoor-covid-transmission-cdc-number.html
When the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released new guidelines last month for mask wearing, it announced that “less than 10 percent” of Covid-19 transmission was occurring outdoors. Media organizations repeated the statistic, and it quickly became a standard description of the frequency of outdoor transmission.
But the number is almost certainly misleading.
It appears to be based partly on a misclassification of some Covid transmission that actually took place in enclosed spaces (as I explain below). An even bigger issue is the extreme caution of C.D.C. officials, who picked a benchmark — 10 percent — so high that nobody could reasonably dispute it.
That benchmark “seems to be a huge exaggeration,” as Dr. Muge Cevik, a virologist at the University of St. Andrews, said. In truth, the share of transmission that has occurred outdoors seems to be below 1 percent and may be below 0.1 percent, multiple epidemiologists told me. The rare outdoor transmission that has happened almost all seems to have involved crowded places or close conversation.
Saying that less than 10 percent of Covid transmission occurs outdoors is akin to saying that sharks attack fewer than 20,000 swimmers a year. (The actual worldwide number is around 150.) It’s both true and deceiving.
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I've been doing a lot of walking lately. Everybody but me wears masks. Many keep them slung around their necks till they see someone coming, then they put them on, and we proceed to pass each other with more than 6' distance. My guess is that almost all these people are vaccinated.
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Maybe 1 in 500 wears a mask at the golf course
Other than that nobody wears a mask outdoors around here
Maybe if I went to a ballgame or something I might see a mask outdoors.
In the hardware store yesterday there were a few without masks. I don't care, I have antibodies to spare.
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I’ve never worn a mask outdoors but I would if I had been in an outdoor event of substantial size or if standing in a line outside.
@loki said in A Misleading C.D.C. Number:
I’ve never worn a mask outdoors but I would if I had been in an outdoor event of substantial size or if standing in a line outside.
I knew from day 1 reading that transmission was unlikely, except for one silly analysis that hypothesized a bike rider and how covid could spread even at 20 feet but that analysis lasted a micro second.
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@loki said in A Misleading C.D.C. Number:
I’ve never worn a mask outdoors but I would if I had been in an outdoor event of substantial size or if standing in a line outside.
I knew from day 1 reading that transmission was unlikely, except for one silly analysis that hypothesized a bike rider and how covid could spread even at 20 feet but that analysis lasted a micro second.
@loki said in A Misleading C.D.C. Number:
@loki said in A Misleading C.D.C. Number:
I’ve never worn a mask outdoors but I would if I had been in an outdoor event of substantial size or if standing in a line outside.
I knew from day 1 reading that transmission was unlikely, except for one silly analysis that hypothesized a bike rider and how covid could spread even at 20 feet but that analysis lasted a micro second.
Convincing enough to be propagated here, as I recall.
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I still try and give people plenty of clearance when I'm out on the bike, in case they're worried. As an added bonus, it tends to aggravate motorists.
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@george-k experts predict that at least 60% of people exposed to DiHydrogen Monoxide will die.
@lufins-dad said in A Misleading C.D.C. Number:
@george-k experts predict that at least 60% of people exposed to DiHydrogen Monoxide will die.
I think it is closer to 94.3%. 5555
Statistics!! You can turn them to say what you want them to say.
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@lufins-dad said in A Misleading C.D.C. Number:
@george-k experts predict that at least 60% of people exposed to DiHydrogen Monoxide will die.
I think it is closer to 94.3%. 5555
Statistics!! You can turn them to say what you want them to say.
@taiwan_girl said in A Misleading C.D.C. Number:
@lufins-dad said in A Misleading C.D.C. Number:
@george-k experts predict that at least 60% of people exposed to DiHydrogen Monoxide will die.
I think it is closer to 94.3%. 5555
Statistics!! You can turn them to say what you want them to say.
Over 70% of cancerous tumors have shown high concentrations of DiHydrogen Monoxide...
