Meanwhile, in Brazil
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The worry is that the large chunk of the world that isn’t close to vaccinated will eventually be the source of a mutation for which the current t vaccines aren’t at all effective. Then we’re back to scratch.
@jon-nyc said in Meanwhile, in Brazil:
The worry is that the large chunk of the world that isn’t close to vaccinated will eventually be the source of a mutation for which the current t vaccines aren’t at all effective. Then we’re back to scratch.
I dont think it would be quite that bad. I was read something that said that the number of mutations that could form that could still attach to the spike of the COVID virus is not unlimited.
In addition,
QUOTE
If the variants become impervious to our vaccines, it's pretty simple to modify Pfizer's and Moderna's mRNA vaccines, to create booster shots by swapping out the genetic sequence used to teach the body to recognize the spike protein with the new mutated sequence,(https://www.livescience.com/how-much-can-coronavirus-mutate-variants.html)
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@jon-nyc said in Meanwhile, in Brazil:
The worry is that the large chunk of the world that isn’t close to vaccinated will eventually be the source of a mutation for which the current t vaccines aren’t at all effective. Then we’re back to scratch.
Is that logical? Wouldn't a country with high levels of vaccination would be more likely to "breed" a new vaccination-resistent variant, since there the mutation has a competitive advantage?
@klaus said in Meanwhile, in Brazil:
@jon-nyc said in Meanwhile, in Brazil:
The worry is that the large chunk of the world that isn’t close to vaccinated will eventually be the source of a mutation for which the current t vaccines aren’t at all effective. Then we’re back to scratch.
Is that logical? Wouldn't a country with high levels of vaccination would be more likely to "breed" a new vaccination-resistent variant, since there the mutation has a competitive advantage?
Well, the population with few vaccines wouldn’t select for a vaccine resistant strain, it would select for high transmissibility. The population with lots of vaccines would select for vaccine resistance. But the former would have many times more successful mutations.
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@klaus said in Meanwhile, in Brazil:
@jon-nyc said in Meanwhile, in Brazil:
The worry is that the large chunk of the world that isn’t close to vaccinated will eventually be the source of a mutation for which the current t vaccines aren’t at all effective. Then we’re back to scratch.
Is that logical? Wouldn't a country with high levels of vaccination would be more likely to "breed" a new vaccination-resistent variant, since there the mutation has a competitive advantage?
Well, the population with few vaccines wouldn’t select for a vaccine resistant strain, it would select for high transmissibility. The population with lots of vaccines would select for vaccine resistance. But the former would have many times more successful mutations.
@jon-nyc said in Meanwhile, in Brazil:
@klaus said in Meanwhile, in Brazil:
@jon-nyc said in Meanwhile, in Brazil:
The worry is that the large chunk of the world that isn’t close to vaccinated will eventually be the source of a mutation for which the current t vaccines aren’t at all effective. Then we’re back to scratch.
Is that logical? Wouldn't a country with high levels of vaccination would be more likely to "breed" a new vaccination-resistent variant, since there the mutation has a competitive advantage?
Well, the population with few vaccines wouldn’t select for a vaccine resistant strain, it would select for high transmissibility. The population with lots of vaccines would select for vaccine resistance. But the former would have many times more successful mutations.
Agreed, but you said the worry is that mutations would develop in the low-vaccine countries for which the vaccine is not effective. I agree with your last sentence about the number of mutations, but it is not obvious that this is sufficient to "beat" the selection effect of the high-vaccine countries.
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I know some have said that we're going to have to deal with Covid for years, possibly decades.
Anyway, happy Monday.
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I know some have said that we're going to have to deal with Covid for years, possibly decades.
Anyway, happy Monday.
@doctor-phibes said in Meanwhile, in Brazil:
I know some have said that we're going to have to deal with Covid for years, possibly decades.
Anyway, happy Monday.
Yeah, it's like "you will get the REAL DEAL someday, a variant."
Swell, huh.
"Be not afraid. . . " -
@jon-nyc said in Meanwhile, in Brazil:
@klaus said in Meanwhile, in Brazil:
@jon-nyc said in Meanwhile, in Brazil:
The worry is that the large chunk of the world that isn’t close to vaccinated will eventually be the source of a mutation for which the current t vaccines aren’t at all effective. Then we’re back to scratch.
Is that logical? Wouldn't a country with high levels of vaccination would be more likely to "breed" a new vaccination-resistent variant, since there the mutation has a competitive advantage?
Well, the population with few vaccines wouldn’t select for a vaccine resistant strain, it would select for high transmissibility. The population with lots of vaccines would select for vaccine resistance. But the former would have many times more successful mutations.
Agreed, but you said the worry is that mutations would develop in the low-vaccine countries for which the vaccine is not effective. I agree with your last sentence about the number of mutations, but it is not obvious that this is sufficient to "beat" the selection effect of the high-vaccine countries.
@klaus said in Meanwhile, in Brazil:
@jon-nyc said in Meanwhile, in Brazil:
@klaus said in Meanwhile, in Brazil:
@jon-nyc said in Meanwhile, in Brazil:
The worry is that the large chunk of the world that isn’t close to vaccinated will eventually be the source of a mutation for which the current t vaccines aren’t at all effective. Then we’re back to scratch.
Is that logical? Wouldn't a country with high levels of vaccination would be more likely to "breed" a new vaccination-resistent variant, since there the mutation has a competitive advantage?
Well, the population with few vaccines wouldn’t select for a vaccine resistant strain, it would select for high transmissibility. The population with lots of vaccines would select for vaccine resistance. But the former would have many times more successful mutations.
Agreed, but you said the worry is that mutations would develop in the low-vaccine countries for which the vaccine is not effective. I agree with your last sentence about the number of mutations, but it is not obvious that this is sufficient to "beat" the selection effect of the high-vaccine countries.
I think the logic goes like this: more transmission leads to more mutations lead to higher probability to produce a vaccine-resistant mutation. Big number without vaccine-resistant selection beats small number with vaccine-resistant selection.
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@jon-nyc said in Meanwhile, in Brazil:
The worry is that the large chunk of the world that isn’t close to vaccinated will eventually be the source of a mutation for which the current t vaccines aren’t at all effective. Then we’re back to scratch.
I dont think it would be quite that bad. I was read something that said that the number of mutations that could form that could still attach to the spike of the COVID virus is not unlimited.
In addition,
QUOTE
If the variants become impervious to our vaccines, it's pretty simple to modify Pfizer's and Moderna's mRNA vaccines, to create booster shots by swapping out the genetic sequence used to teach the body to recognize the spike protein with the new mutated sequence,(https://www.livescience.com/how-much-can-coronavirus-mutate-variants.html)
@taiwan_girl said in Meanwhile, in Brazil:
@jon-nyc said in Meanwhile, in Brazil:
The worry is that the large chunk of the world that isn’t close to vaccinated will eventually be the source of a mutation for which the current t vaccines aren’t at all effective. Then we’re back to scratch.
I dont think it would be quite that bad. I was read something that said that the number of mutations that could form that could still attach to the spike of the COVID virus is not unlimited.
In addition,
QUOTE
If the variants become impervious to our vaccines, it's pretty simple to modify Pfizer's and Moderna's mRNA vaccines, to create booster shots by swapping out the genetic sequence used to teach the body to recognize the spike protein with the new mutated sequence,(https://www.livescience.com/how-much-can-coronavirus-mutate-variants.html)
I have read that as well. There are actually relatively few ways the spike can mutate.
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@taiwan_girl said in Meanwhile, in Brazil:
@jon-nyc said in Meanwhile, in Brazil:
The worry is that the large chunk of the world that isn’t close to vaccinated will eventually be the source of a mutation for which the current t vaccines aren’t at all effective. Then we’re back to scratch.
I dont think it would be quite that bad. I was read something that said that the number of mutations that could form that could still attach to the spike of the COVID virus is not unlimited.
In addition,
QUOTE
If the variants become impervious to our vaccines, it's pretty simple to modify Pfizer's and Moderna's mRNA vaccines, to create booster shots by swapping out the genetic sequence used to teach the body to recognize the spike protein with the new mutated sequence,(https://www.livescience.com/how-much-can-coronavirus-mutate-variants.html)
I have read that as well. There are actually relatively few ways the spike can mutate.
@mik said in Meanwhile, in Brazil:
@taiwan_girl said in Meanwhile, in Brazil:
@jon-nyc said in Meanwhile, in Brazil:
The worry is that the large chunk of the world that isn’t close to vaccinated will eventually be the source of a mutation for which the current t vaccines aren’t at all effective. Then we’re back to scratch.
I dont think it would be quite that bad. I was read something that said that the number of mutations that could form that could still attach to the spike of the COVID virus is not unlimited.
In addition,
QUOTE
If the variants become impervious to our vaccines, it's pretty simple to modify Pfizer's and Moderna's mRNA vaccines, to create booster shots by swapping out the genetic sequence used to teach the body to recognize the spike protein with the new mutated sequence,(https://www.livescience.com/how-much-can-coronavirus-mutate-variants.html)
I have read that as well. There are actually relatively few ways the spike can mutate.
In addition, I read that while some future mutations may be more resistant to the vaccines, they won't be completely impervious... The spike protein is the spike protein. It's endemic to this virus and its what each of the vaccines are targeting.
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I've read a lot of things in the last year that have been shown to be complete bollocks.
I suspect this will continue.
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I've read a lot of things in the last year that have been shown to be complete bollocks.
I suspect this will continue.
@doctor-phibes said in Meanwhile, in Brazil:
I've read a lot of things in the last year that have been shown to be complete bollocks.
I suspect this will continue.
Hospitalization rates per day compared to % vaccinated per day will give us a decent enough picture, I think.
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Update:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/27/world/americas/virus-brazil-bolsonaro.html
More than a year into the pandemic, deaths in Brazil are at their peak and highly contagious variants of the coronavirus are sweeping the nation, enabled by political dysfunction, widespread complacency and conspiracy theories. The country, whose leader, President Jair Bolsonaro, has played down the threat of the virus, is now reporting more new cases and deaths per day than any other country in the world.
“We have never seen a failure of the health system of this magnitude,” said Ana de Lemos, the executive director of Doctors Without Borders in Brazil. “And we don’t see a light at the end of the tunnel.”
On Wednesday, the country surpassed 300,000 Covid-19 deaths, with roughly 125 Brazilians succumbing to the disease every hour. Health officials in public and private hospitals were scrambling to expand critical care units, stock up on dwindling supplies of oxygen and procure scarce intubation sedatives that are being sold at an exponential markup.Intensive care units in Brasília, the capital, and 16 of Brazil’s 26 states report dire shortages of available beds, with capacity below 10 percent, and many are experiencing rising contagion (when 90 percent of such beds are full the situation is considered dire.)
In Rio Grande do Sul, the state that includes Porto Alegre, the waiting list for intensive care unit beds doubled over the past two weeks, to 240 critically ill patients.
