Trump losing seniors by 20+ points?
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Seems impossible. But two polls now.
Donald Trump is losing seniors like a Boca Raton Denny’s after cancelling the Early Bird Special. He’s hemorrhaging oldsters in numbers not seen since CBS canceled Matlock.
In 2016, Trump won seniors by 7 points. The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll from Sunday has him losing them by 27 points (62 percent to 35 percent). The CNN poll from yesterday—which I originally thought was an outlier—has him losing seniors by a mere 21 points (60 to 39).
Still trying not to get excited about the polling but that sure would explain why he’s in trouble in FL and AZ.
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Let’s say the numbers are only half as bad. Can you seriously imagine Trump winning if he’s over 10pts behind with seniors?
If that’s true, he’s done.
@jon-nyc said in Trump losing seniors by 20+ points?:
Let’s say the numbers are only half as bad. Can you seriously imagine Trump winning if he’s over 10pts behind with seniors?
If that’s true, he’s done.
Duh. I’ve been saying that for months. Surprised you are surprised.
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I still think Trump's going to win. Somehow, Biden is going to mess this up.
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I also don't trust the polls. There was a pro-Trump bunch of people here waving their flags and what-have you in the middle of the town, and the number of cars beeping their support was surprisingly large, particularly here in MA.
It seems to me that the pro-Trumpers are very enthusiastic, whereas the pro-Bidens are mostly pretty meh about him.
That being said, I'm generally completely wrong with election predictions.
I was only joking
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I know that when there is a Biden Rally the senior citizens come out by the dozens to put together a golf cart parade....
But I'd say the increase in the number of blacks switching to Trump added to the tens of thousands of democrats who are leaving the democrat party will more than make up for whatever alleged drop there might be among senior citizens.
But then... the polls may be doing the same thing they did 4 years ago, in which case Trump will win in a landslide.
Personally I think anyone who would vote for a Democrat now, especially Biden, is just too stupid for words.
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I don't know who will win right now. Biden will never run a campaign like this again. Nobody will. Not with a pandemic throttling the best job market and real wage gains in decades. Not with a media that is essentially a division of Biden's campaign. Not with a candidate that essentially didn't campaign.
I think Trump still has a shot at an electoral victory. Because of California and New York, I don't think a popular vote victory was entirely possible.
I also think Biden stands a very good chance at not making a full term. And I think his administration would be to the left of Obama's. Midterms under a Biden administration would be interesting.
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I also don't trust the polls. There was a pro-Trump bunch of people here waving their flags and what-have you in the middle of the town, and the number of cars beeping their support was surprisingly large, particularly here in MA.
It seems to me that the pro-Trumpers are very enthusiastic, whereas the pro-Bidens are mostly pretty meh about him.
That being said, I'm generally completely wrong with election predictions.
@Doctor-Phibes said in Trump losing seniors by 20+ points?:
I also don't trust the polls. There was a pro-Trump bunch of people here waving their flags and what-have you in the middle of the town, and the number of cars beeping their support was surprisingly large, particularly here in MA.
It seems to me that the pro-Trumpers are very enthusiastic, whereas the pro-Bidens are mostly pretty meh about him.
That being said, I'm generally completely wrong with election predictions.
This is why getting Democrats to vote early is so important. Make sure they cast their votes before they get too demoralized or something happens and they wish they could change it.
