For Horace - stock market will go up regardless of who wins President
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How can you tell whether something is true without any data?
Politicians say a lot of stuff that isn't true. I've heard it said that even Donald Trump is occasionally prone to minor exaggerations.
How do we verify their claims?
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Data is just a piece of reality. Statistics is just a way to summarize data.
It's completely nonsensical to assume that there's a way to talk about reality without talking about data.
Larry's intent seems to be to find justifications to uphold his propositions when they clash with reality. Let's call it a variant of confirmation bias.
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@Klaus said in For Horace - stock market will go up regardless of who wins President:
Data is just a piece of reality. Statistics is just a way to summarize data.
It's completely nonsensical to assume that there's a way to talk about reality without talking about data.
Larry's intent seems to be to find justifications to uphold his propositions when they clash with reality. Let's call it a variant of confirmation bias.
Exactly.
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@Klaus said in For Horace - stock market will go up regardless of who wins President:
Data is just a piece of reality. Statistics is just a way to summarize data.
It's completely nonsensical to assume that there's a way to talk about reality without talking about data.
Larry's intent seems to be to find justifications to uphold his propositions when they clash with reality. Let's call it a variant of confirmation bias.
Statistics is a snapshot of a constantly changing thing. I can understand how a mathematician would think it's "nonsensical" to think one can talk about reality without talking about numbers. Thankfully however, there is a much more accurate way to gauge something than to focus on a narrow little snapshot obtained by navel gazing at numbers.
My intent is not what you've assumed from your numbers based method of viewing the world. My intent is to approach the issue that was being discussed by looking at reality and not allowing you or anyone else blow the same smoke up my ass that you have had blown up yours.
Again, using black employment as the example.. we can navel gaze over a bunch of numbers we found by Googling, or we can step back to get a wider view and take a look at what's actually happening. Confirmation bias will more likely be found among you number crunchers, since it's quite common for one set of data to be used to support both sides of an argument. That's because statistics and data are often meaningless except to navel gamers.
I don't gaze at my navel. TG has her opinion, and she uses data and statistics to defend her positions - positions she formed long before she set out to find the data she wanted to find. Someone else with a different opinion can also find data and statistics to defend their position as well - which is a well proven point, and statistics confirmed both biases.
But when one takes a wider view of the issue, they see that blacks are leaving the democrat party in large numbers, blacks who support Trump are growing at a rapid pace, and by the tens of thousands they are telling the rest of us it's because of record setting employment and other things Trump has done to help the black community.
So you go on getting your information from a bunch of numbers. I'll get my information from looking at results.
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@Larry said in For Horace - stock market will go up regardless of who wins President:
But when one takes a wider view of the issue, they see that blacks are leaving the democrat party in large numbers, blacks who support Trump are growing at a rapid pace, and by the tens of thousands they are telling the rest of us it's because of record setting employment and other things Trump has done to help the black community.
So you go on getting your information from a bunch of numbers. I'll get my information from looking at results.I'm glad you can make your point so well without reference to (fictional?) numbers and data.
Let me guess: If Trump looses, you'll also refuse to accept the voting numbers as not being "reality"?
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Larry, I believe that you have multiple businesses. How do you determine if they are doing well? Just gut feel, or do you look at profit/loss, sales figures, etc?
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@taiwan_girl said in For Horace - stock market will go up regardless of who wins President:
Larry, I believe that you have multiple businesses. How do you determine if they are doing well? Just gut feel, or do you look at profit/loss, sales figures, etc?
There's an old saying... "accountants are people who, after the battle has been fought, rush out to bayonet the wounded."
If you talk to my accountant, he will tell you that it is because of his number crunching that my businesses make money. He knows every penny, and can turn out reams of data. The one thing he has no fucking clue about is how to actually earn the dollars he's counting.
So you count, I'll earn .
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Trump says he makes lots of money.
Trump's tax return data say, over time, he has not make enough money to even be legally required to pay any income tax for many years.Tax returns information is data, which can be summarized into statistics.
Trump's utterances is also data, which can also be summarize into statics -- for example: 20,000 lies between inauguration and July 9, 2020. -
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@Larry said in For Horace - stock market will go up regardless of who wins President:
@taiwan_girl said in For Horace - stock market will go up regardless of who wins President:
Larry, I believe that you have multiple businesses. How do you determine if they are doing well? Just gut feel, or do you look at profit/loss, sales figures, etc?
There's an old saying... "accountants are people who, after the battle has been fought, rush out to bayonet the wounded."
If you talk to my accountant, he will tell you that it is because of his number crunching that my businesses make money. He knows every penny, and can turn out reams of data. The one thing he has no fucking clue about is how to actually earn the dollars he's counting.
So you count, I'll earn .
Your accountant thinks your business is successful because of him? Sounds like a pretty bad accountant.
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I have to work with a large variety of companies, ranging from large multinationals to guys basically working out of their basement.
The absolute hardest to convince that they're wrong in the face of vast amounts of supporting data are small business owners. The instant I get a call from somebody who describes themselves as 'President and Founder' a massive alarm goes off and I try to sneakily assign the work to another manager.
This isn't statistical, I've never analyzed the issue, but it's sure as heck reality
Incidentally, the second hardest type is anybody with a PhD.
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@Larry said in For Horace - stock market will go up regardless of who wins President:
Good thing there's not an idiot column ...
That just goes to show you understand neither idiots nor accounting. The āidiot columnā is completely unnecessary as the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles would classify the idiots according to whether they are income generating assets (e.g., āuseful idiotsā) or merely expense incurring liabilities (mere āidiotsā) and place them into existing columns.
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@xenon said in For Horace - stock market will go up regardless of who wins President:
@Larry said in For Horace - stock market will go up regardless of who wins President:
@taiwan_girl said in For Horace - stock market will go up regardless of who wins President:
Larry, I believe that you have multiple businesses. How do you determine if they are doing well? Just gut feel, or do you look at profit/loss, sales figures, etc?
There's an old saying... "accountants are people who, after the battle has been fought, rush out to bayonet the wounded."
If you talk to my accountant, he will tell you that it is because of his number crunching that my businesses make money. He knows every penny, and can turn out reams of data. The one thing he has no fucking clue about is how to actually earn the dollars he's counting.
So you count, I'll earn .
Your accountant thinks your business is successful because of him? Sounds like a pretty bad accountant.
No, that's fairly typical of an accountant. Just look how hard the number crunchers here are trying to argue the same thing.....
Two men in a hot air balloon get lost, and begin following a river. After a while they spot a man fishing from the bank of the river. One of the men in the hot air balloon yells down to the man who's fishing.. "where are we?" The man fishing yells back... "you're up there!"
They float on for a couple of minutes, then one guy in the hot air balloon says "I hope that accountant catches lots of fish." The other guy says "how to you know he's an accountant?" The first guy says "By the information he gave us. It was 100% correct, and 100% useless."
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To which the accountant replies - "you don't know where you are, you don't know where you're going, and you're drifting along using nothing but hot air. And somehow this is now my fault!"
"You must be a ......"
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I would have said 'marketing executive', but a number of options work.
