Another contrarian view: Does quarantine matter?
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Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel of Tel Aviv University, who also serves on the research and development advisory board for Teva Pharmaceutical Industries, plotted the rates of new coronavirus infections of the U.S., U.K., Sweden, Italy, Israel, Switzerland, France, Germany, and Spain. The numbers told a shocking story: irrespective of whether the country quarantined like Israel, or went about business as usual like Sweden, coronavirus peaked and subsided in the exact same way. In the exact, same, way. His graphs show that all countries experienced seemingly identical coronavirus infection patterns, with the number of infected peaking in the sixth week and rapidly subsiding by the eighth week.
The Wuhan Virus follows its own pattern, he told Mako, an Israeli news agency. It is a fixed pattern that is not dependent on freedom or quarantine. “There is a decline in the number of infections even [in countries] without closures, and it is similar to the countries with closures,” he wrote in his paper.
“Is the coronavirus expansion exponential? The answer by the numbers is simple: no. Expansion begins exponentially but fades quickly after about eight weeks,” Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel concluded. The reason why coronavirus follows a fixed pattern is yet unknown. "I have no explanation,” he told Mako, “There are is kinds of speculation: maybe it's climate-related, maybe the virus has its own life cycle.”
But what about Italy and their staggering 12% mortality rate? “The health system in Italy has its own problems. It has nothing to do with coronavirus. In 2017 it also collapsed because of the flu,” Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel told the news agency. Indeed, Italy’s exceptionally high coronavirus mortality rate is eerily reminiscent of their unusually high flu mortality rates. Supportive of this theory, Germany, has low flu infection and mortality rates and similarly low coronavirus rates.
Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel concludes in his analysis summary paper that the data from the past 50 days indicates that the closure policies of the quarantine countries can be replaced by more moderate social distancing policies. The numbers simply do not support quarantine or economic closure.
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Observations:
1). Shame he didn’t do it in English
2). Townhall does not want us to know what he’s a professor of.
3.). How’d he pick his dates?
4). How much variance has there really been in social distancing measures?
5). shame it’s not in English.
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@George-K said in Another contrarian view: Does quarantine matter?:
Yitzhak Ben Israel
Is this the guy, I wonder: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Ben_Israel
Professor Isaac Ben-Israel (Hebrew: יצחק בן ישראל, born 26 July 1949) is an Israeli military scientist, general and ex-politician. He currently serves as the chairman of the Israeli Space Agency and the National Council for Research and Development, under the auspices of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Space of Israel. He finished his service in the IDF ranked General, serving as head of the military Administration for the Development of Weapons and the Technological Industry. Between 2010-2012 he served as chief Cybernetics adviser to PM Netanyahu, during which period he founded the National Cyber Bureau in the PM office and launched the National Cyber Initiative. Ben Israel is now head of the Security Studies program in Tel Aviv University, where he also heads the annual international Cyber Security conference. Between 2007 and 2009 he served as a member of the Knesset for Kadima. Ben Israel is one of Israel's top experts on Space, Cyber and technological related security. He holds a PhD in Philosophy and a BSc in Physics and Mathematics from Tel Aviv University.
https://english.tau.ac.il/profile/itzik
Isaac Ben-Israel was born in Israel (Tel-Aviv), 1949.
He studied Mathematics, Physics and Philosophy at Tel-Aviv University, receiving his Ph.D. in 1988.
He joined the Israel Air Force (IAF) after graduating high school (1967) and has served continuously up to his retirement (2002).
During his service, Isaac Ben-Israel has held several posts in operations, intelligence and weapon development units of the IAF. He headed the IAF Operations Research Branch, Analysis and Assessment Division of IAF Intelligence, and was the Head of Military R&D in Israel Defence Forces and Ministry of Defence (1991-1997). In January 1998 he was promoted to Major General and appointed as Director of Defence R&D Directorate in IMOD. During his service he received twice the Israeli Defence Award.
After retirement from the IDF Isaac Ben Israel joined the University of Tel-Aviv as a professor and was the head of Curiel Centre for International Studies (2002-2004), the head of the Program for Security Studies (2004-2007), Executive Director of the Interdisciplinary Centre for Technological Analysis & Forecasting at Tel-Aviv University (ICTAF) (2010-2013), Deputy Director of the Hartog School of Government and Policy in Tel-Aviv University (2005-2015) and a member of Jaffe Centre for Strategic Studies (2002-2004). In 2002 he founded and headed the Yuval Ne’eman Workshop for Science, Technology and Security. He was a member of the Board of Trustees of Ariel University Centre (2009-2011), and a member of the advisory council of Neaman Institute for Advanced Studies in Science and Technology at the Technion (2000-2010).
In 2002 he founded RAY-TOP (Technology Opportunities) Ltd, consulting governments and industries in technological and strategic issues.
Professor Ben-Israel was a member of the 17th Knesset (Israeli Parliament) between June 2007 and February 2009. During this period he was a member of the Security and Foreign Affairs Committee, the Finance Committee, the Science & Technology committee, the Chairman of the Homeland Security Sub Committee and the Chairman of the Israeli–Indian Parliamentary Friendship Association.
In 2011 he was appointed by the Prime Minister to lead a task force that formulated Israel national Cyber policy. Following that he founded the National Cyber Headquarters in the PM Office. In 2014 he was appointed again by the PM to lead another task force which resulted in a government decision (February 2015) to set up a new Notional Cyber Authority.
Isaac Ben Israel was a member of the board of directors of IAI (2000-2002), the board of the Israel Corp. (2004-2007) and the R&D advisory board of TEVA (2003-2007) and Chairman of the Technion Entrepreneurial Incubator (2007).
Professor Ben-Israel has written numerous papers on military and security issues. His book Dialogues on Science and Military Intelligence (1989) won the Itzhak-Sade Award for Military Literature. His book on The Philosophy of Military Intelligence had been published by the Broadcast University (1999) and has been translated into French (2004). His book Science, Technology and Security: From Soldiers in Combat up to Outer Space, was published in 2006. His book on Israel Defence Doctrine was published in 2013. -
Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel, head of the Cyber Center at Tel Aviv University, the answer is yes. "It turns out that the peak of the spread is already behind us for about a week, and it will probably be almost completely wasted within two weeks," writes Prof. Isaac Ben-Israel.
The data he collected with his colleagues Ronnie (Aharon) will flourish and Prof. Zvi Ziegler of the Technion will publish in the article. The information is based on comparisons with other countries - in all of them, the data indicate the same trend: after the peak of morbidity that occurs around the 40th day, the corona epidemic is waning and the numbers are dwindling.
The criticism...
Dr. Uri Lerner, the professional director of the Madata Association, calls Prof. Ben Israel's conclusions "misleading and outrageous things":
"Let's start with the fact that the graphs that are currently being shown to the public every day are not a reliable indicator, which can actually provide an indication of the condition of patients in Israel. It is impossible to know how many patients actually exist today in Israel or in the world - some patients are asymptomatic and some are not reported because they are considered "Easy cases" and prefer to stay at home, so there is really no basic figure to rely on.
And this:
Neta Super Tzur from "Madata" adds: "The only reason there is a decline in the rate of expansion is closure. In countries where the survey was taken too late, there is also a decline now, but even after at least two weeks of closure and such or other restrictions. Renewed pace of infection and very dangerous to lose control here. "
....
According to the Davidson Institute, the Weizmann Institute's educational arm, there are two main reasons for the graph's moderation: the first: the chance of exposure becoming contagious as there are more patients, as sick people do not get infected, and probably people who have recovered from the disease.Second: The number of people exposed to a sick person decreases as the social isolation regime becomes more effective. They also note that the virus itself can weaken, for example with weather changes.
Regarding Professor Ben Israel's analysis, the Davidson Institute claimed "that it lacks scientific foundation too sufficient for us to address."
- The content on this channel does not constitute a professional opinion, recommendation, substitute for consulting an expert or obtaining medical
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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@George-K said in Another contrarian view: Does quarantine matter?:
Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel, head of the Cyber Center at Tel Aviv University, the answer is yes. "It turns out that the peak of the spread is already behind us for about a week, and it will probably be almost completely wasted within two weeks," writes Prof. Isaac Ben-Israel.
The data he collected with his colleagues Ronnie (Aharon) will flourish and Prof. Zvi Ziegler of the Technion will publish in the article. The information is based on comparisons with other countries - in all of them, the data indicate the same trend: after the peak of morbidity that occurs around the 40th day, the corona epidemic is waning and the numbers are dwindling.
The criticism...
Dr. Uri Lerner, the professional director of the Madata Association, calls Prof. Ben Israel's conclusions "misleading and outrageous things":
"Let's start with the fact that the graphs that are currently being shown to the public every day are not a reliable indicator, which can actually provide an indication of the condition of patients in Israel. It is impossible to know how many patients actually exist today in Israel or in the world - some patients are asymptomatic and some are not reported because they are considered "Easy cases" and prefer to stay at home, so there is really no basic figure to rely on.
And this:
Neta Super Tzur from "Madata" adds: "The only reason there is a decline in the rate of expansion is closure. In countries where the survey was taken too late, there is also a decline now, but even after at least two weeks of closure and such or other restrictions. Renewed pace of infection and very dangerous to lose control here. "
....
According to the Davidson Institute, the Weizmann Institute's educational arm, there are two main reasons for the graph's moderation: the first: the chance of exposure becoming contagious as there are more patients, as sick people do not get infected, and probably people who have recovered from the disease.Second: The number of people exposed to a sick person decreases as the social isolation regime becomes more effective. They also note that the virus itself can weaken, for example with weather changes.
Regarding Professor Ben Israel's analysis, the Davidson Institute claimed "that it lacks scientific foundation too sufficient for us to address."
- The content on this channel does not constitute a professional opinion, recommendation, substitute for consulting an expert or obtaining medical
It might make sense, depending on which of the 8 strains it belongs to...Maybe a difference in virility between strains?
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@Horace said in Another contrarian view: Does quarantine matter?:
I'm curious how "everybody wears a mask and gloves and washes their hands a lot" compares to quarantine.
Quarantine is better because it's far more enforceable. No way to make sure people wear masks for example, and that would really help.
