Cure worse than the disease?
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We must count the deaths from shutdowns as well as from coronavirus
Job losses cause extreme suffering. Every 1 percent hike in the unemployment rate will likely produce a 3.3 percent increase in drug-overdose deaths and a 0.99 percent increase in suicides, according to data from the National Bureau of Economic Research and the medical journal Lancet.
These are facts based on past experience, not models. If unemployment hits 32 percent, some 77,000 Americans are likely to die from suicide and drug overdoses as a result of layoffs. Deaths of despair.
Then add the predictable deaths from alcohol abuse caused by unemployment. Health economist Michael French from the University of Miami found a “significant association between job loss” and binge drinking and alcoholism.
The impact of layoffs goes beyond suicide, drug overdosing and drinking, however. Overall, the death rate for an unemployed person is 63 percent higher than for someone with a job, according to findings in the journal Social Science & Medicine.
Now do the math: Layoff-related deaths could far outnumber the 60,400 coronavirus deaths predicted by University of Washington researchers. This comparison isn’t meant to understate the horror of the coronavirus for those who get it and their families.
On Monday, governors in several states heavily hit by the coronavirus announced they would work together regionally on plans to phase out the shutdown. On Tuesday, Trump announced a council assembled to formulate plans for reopening the nation for business.
It won’t be done by a flick of the switch. Getting back to business will hinge on testing, accommodations employers make for workers’ safety and the willingness of consumers to patronize restaurants, gyms and other businesses again.
The president’s public-health advisers want the virus to“determine the timetable.” But Trump should also take into account the concerns of the silent majority suffering from the shutdown. It’s more than just their jobs on the line. Their lives are, too.
Betsy McCaughey, a former lieutenant governor of New York, is chairwoman of the Committee to Reduce Infection Deaths.
