The Taxman
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wrote on 26 Aug 2020, 12:14 last edited by
His coming under a Biden administration is a surety...
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wrote on 26 Aug 2020, 12:58 last edited by
Yup: "In fact, the effects of Biden’s proposed tax increases may be even larger—and affect a much broader share of the population—than previous evaluations suggest, owing to their “tax incidence” consequences. Tax incidence refers to who bears the burden of a tax, which may be different from whom the tax is imposed on. For example, taxes levied on producers can be passed on to consumers through higher prices."
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wrote on 26 Aug 2020, 13:29 last edited by
What Biden says will happen...
Link to video -
wrote on 26 Aug 2020, 15:02 last edited by
If he loses the stock market should take a nice jump up.
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wrote on 26 Aug 2020, 15:55 last edited by
Yes, I expect it would.
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wrote on 26 Aug 2020, 17:19 last edited by
@Horace With the US stock market being going to (almost) a record, are "they" predicting a President Trump re-election or a Vice President Biden win?
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wrote on 26 Aug 2020, 17:26 last edited by
I think we have other factors at play that are overwhelming the Trump vs Biden factor. I do think the stock market very much liked that Sanders and Warren did not get the nomination.
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wrote on 26 Aug 2020, 19:30 last edited by xenon
The biggest thing the stock market rise tells me is that businesses can't earn a return by investing money back in their own operations.
That feels like a pretty big fundamental issue (why did business investment go down after the tax cuts)? But that doesn't seem to be an interesting topic in the mainstream news.
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The biggest thing the stock market rise tells me is that businesses can't earn a return by investing money back in their own operations.
That feels like a pretty big fundamental issue (why did business investment go down after the tax cuts)? But that doesn't seem to be an interesting topic in the mainstream news.
wrote on 26 Aug 2020, 20:03 last edited by@xenon said in The Taxman:
The biggest thing the stock market rise tells me is that businesses can't earn a return by investing money back in their own operations.
That feels like a pretty big fundamental issue (why did business investment go down after the tax cuts)? But that doesn't seem to be an interesting topic in the mainstream news.
Um..so how do they grow then?
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@xenon said in The Taxman:
The biggest thing the stock market rise tells me is that businesses can't earn a return by investing money back in their own operations.
That feels like a pretty big fundamental issue (why did business investment go down after the tax cuts)? But that doesn't seem to be an interesting topic in the mainstream news.
Um..so how do they grow then?
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@Horace With the US stock market being going to (almost) a record, are "they" predicting a President Trump re-election or a Vice President Biden win?
wrote on 26 Aug 2020, 21:05 last edited by@taiwan_girl said in The Taxman:
@Horace With the US stock market being going to (almost) a record, are "they" predicting a President Trump re-election or a Vice President Biden win?
It doesn't matter. Presidents have no effect on the stock market.
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The biggest thing the stock market rise tells me is that businesses can't earn a return by investing money back in their own operations.
That feels like a pretty big fundamental issue (why did business investment go down after the tax cuts)? But that doesn't seem to be an interesting topic in the mainstream news.
wrote on 26 Aug 2020, 21:30 last edited by@xenon said in The Taxman:
The biggest thing the stock market rise tells me is that businesses can't earn a return by investing money back in their own operations.
I'm not sure what you mean by this?
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@xenon said in The Taxman:
The biggest thing the stock market rise tells me is that businesses can't earn a return by investing money back in their own operations.
I'm not sure what you mean by this?
wrote on 26 Aug 2020, 22:29 last edited by xenon@Horace said in The Taxman:
@xenon said in The Taxman:
The biggest thing the stock market rise tells me is that businesses can't earn a return by investing money back in their own operations.
I'm not sure what you mean by this?
https://www.ft.com/content/e9bccd00-db98-11e8-8f50-cbae5495d92bv
https://www.ft.com/content/960ec8ec-5c36-11e9-9dde-7aedca0a081a(open the links in incognito/prviate mode)
The stock market is being used as a vehicle to park huge amounts of cash available (it's better than the alternatives). Even businesses themselves are often buying back their stock instead of putting the money into their operations (e.g., capex).
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wrote on 26 Aug 2020, 22:38 last edited by
https://hbr.org/2020/01/why-stock-buybacks-are-dangerous-for-the-economy
The answer is clear: Corporate tax breaks contained in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 provided the corporate cash for the vastly increased level of buybacks in 2018. First, there was a permanent cut from 35% to 21% in the tax rate on corporate profits earned in the United States. Second, going forward, the 2017 law permanently freed foreign profits of U.S.-based corporations from U.S. taxation (Under the Act, the U.S. Treasury has been reclaiming some tax revenue lost because of a tax concession dating back to 1960 that had enabled U.S.-based corporations to defer payment of U.S. taxes on their foreign profits until repatriating them).
In 2018 compared with 2017, corporate tax revenues declined to $205 billion from $297 billion, hypothetically increasing the financial capacity of U.S.-based corporations to do as much as $92 billion more in buybacks in 2018 without taking on debt. Given that from 2017 to 2018 stock buybacks by S&P 500 companies increased by $287 billion (from $519 billion to $806 billion), the reality is that, through the corporate tax cuts, the federal government essentially funded $92 billion in buybacks by issuing debt and printing money to replace the lost corporate tax revenues.
Since the total federal government deficit increased by $114 billion (from $665 billion in 2017 to $779 billion in 2018), we can (again hypothetically) think of $92 billion of this additional government debt as taxpaying households’ gift to business corporations to enable them to do even more buybacks debt-free, shifting the debt burden of stock buybacks from corporations to taxpayers. If, as a “transfer payment,” we add $92 billion to the $150 billion in debt that, according to the JPMorgan data, S&P 500 companies used to fund buybacks in 2018, the percentage of their 2018 buybacks that were debt-financed rises to 30%, greater than the proportion of 29% for 2017. But because of corporate tax cuts, in 2018 taxpaying households were burdened with about 38% of the combined government and business debt that enabled corporations to do buybacks.
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wrote on 26 Aug 2020, 22:38 last edited by
can't see the stories even in incognito mode. But yes the stock market is benefiting from a massive shift from bonds.
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wrote on 26 Aug 2020, 22:44 last edited by
The demonization of buybacks is a neat political tool in that it exploits the "greedy corporation" perception to convince people that corporate tax reductions are bad, but in a healthy market, and for mature companies, it should be expected to happen sometimes. It only means the company values its own stock more than the market does. Why is that a bad thing? In theory, you can consider it as the company paying back the loan it took in its public offerings, which allows that money to be re-invested by the market in other places. It makes sense for mature, profitable companies to make more than they can reasonably invest in their own organic growth.
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wrote on 26 Aug 2020, 22:54 last edited by
Capital and operational expenditure is no guarantee of future profits. Buybacks are simply financial management of corporate assets.
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The demonization of buybacks is a neat political tool in that it exploits the "greedy corporation" perception to convince people that corporate tax reductions are bad, but in a healthy market, and for mature companies, it should be expected to happen sometimes. It only means the company values its own stock more than the market does. Why is that a bad thing? In theory, you can consider it as the company paying back the loan it took in its public offerings, which allows that money to be re-invested by the market in other places. It makes sense for mature, profitable companies to make more than they can reasonably invest in their own organic growth.
wrote on 26 Aug 2020, 22:54 last edited by xenon@Horace said in The Taxman:
The demonization of buybacks is a neat political tool in that it exploits the "greedy corporation" perception to convince people that corporate tax reductions are bad, but in a healthy market, and for mature companies, it should be expected to happen sometimes. It only means the company values its own stock more than the market does. Why is that a bad thing? In theory, you can consider it as the company paying back the loan it took in its public offerings, which allows that money to be re-invested by the market in other places. It makes sense for mature, profitable companies to make more than they can reasonably invest in their own organic growth.
I have no issues with buybacks on an individual corporate level. None. There are pros and cons.
I don't even like corporate tax as a tax vehicle.
But - when you step back and see a pattern at the aggregate level in the economy of high-buybacks and low investment, then you have a bit of a problem.
And it's a bit obvious even without hindsight. Cash has been very very cheap. It was not the right time to take on more debt to fuel tax cuts. It was time to pay down the debt.
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wrote on 26 Aug 2020, 23:02 last edited by
I'm still struggling to follow your point. Would this pattern you're noticing be equally distressing if the corporations paid dividends rather than did buybacks, with that same money?
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Capital and operational expenditure is no guarantee of future profits. Buybacks are simply financial management of corporate assets.
wrote on 26 Aug 2020, 23:03 last edited by@Mik said in The Taxman:
Capital and operational expenditure is no guarantee of future profits. Buybacks are simply financial management of corporate assets.
They're not - but that's the primary mechanism through which tax cuts create growth.
