Trumpenomics
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Many if not most non-US customers will have retaliatory tariffs on the US not on Europe. Also most of the major aircraft leasing companies ones are in Europe. Ireland specifically.
@jon-nyc said in Trumpenomics:
Many if not most non-US customers will have retaliatory tariffs on the US not on Europe. Also most of the major aircraft leasing companies ones are in Europe. Ireland specifically.
Where there is reciprocal tariffs, US buyers pay the tariffs that Boeing paid to import the parts, and European buyers pay the tariffs to import the entire Boeing aircraft; but European buyers would not pay tariffs on Airbus aircraft, thus it advantages aircraft in the European market. Is that right?
I guess the remaining work would be to untangle what tariffs, on either side of the Atlantic, that have existed for aircraft and aircraft parts before Trump imposed this later tariffs regime.
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@Jolly said in Trumpenomics:
I'm just sitting back, enjoying the show.
It's a complete shitshow.
It's going to create severe hardship for millions, people with no savings, living on the breadline, dependent on jobs which will now vanish. Anyone sitting back enjoying this shitshow is a shit.You mentioned Larry, the piano expert and nasty bigot who wanted to round up all Arabs in America and send them all to the middle east. I doubt he would be sitting back enjoying the show.
May he RIP.@AndyD said in Trumpenomics:
@Jolly said in Trumpenomics:
I'm just sitting back, enjoying the show.
It's a complete shitshow.
It's going to create severe hardship for millions, people with no savings, living on the breadline, dependent on jobs which will now vanish. Anyone sitting back enjoying this shitshow is a shit.You mentioned Larry, the piano expert and nasty bigot who wanted to round up all Arabs in America and send them all to the middle east. I doubt he would be sitting back enjoying the show.
May he RIP.World ends Monday.
Women and children to suffer most.
I still like ol' Larry. And I still think you're an opportunistic pissant.
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Foreign trade is basically an 80/20 issue, in favor of its benefits to America. I think this issue will move votes more than most issues, if people see their retirements crash, and stay crashed.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/657581/americans-foreign-policy-priorities-nato-support-unchanged.aspx
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Spending some time looking through comments on Social Media, a lot of folks really don't understand what's about to happen. They're quite sanguine about tariffs as in "they'll not affect me" or "I don't have a 401K" or "I buy AMERICAN - so what's the problem?" "Trump is playing chess while those stupid economists are playing checkers...haha!"
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Nobody with no skin in the game should care, any more than a renter would care if home prices cratered. They actually benefit from that, and that's understandable. But I figure that the net movement of votes due to a crash like this would be from Republican to Democrat, sharply so.
Not to mention that the crash is just a forward indicator of corporate profit destruction, which will necessarily destroy jobs.
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The tariffs will be bad. The overreaction to the tariffs will likely be worse.
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The tariffs will be bad. The overreaction to the tariffs will likely be worse.
@LuFins-Dad said in Trumpenomics:
The tariffs will be bad. The overreaction to the tariffs will likely be worse.
Well, at least that will give Trump somebody to blame for the completely unnecessary situation which he has created pretty much single-handedly.
When people say to me 'you know, one man really can't make a difference', I can say 'Yeah? Well what about Donald Trump?'
I know, I know, we've got TDS. We're the problem here.
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More and more I am feeling like the overreaction is what he is looking for. He wants the panic, he wants the global markets to temporarily tank. He wants everyone’s sphincters to get tight enough to turn a turd into a diamond. While we’re all sitting here, bitching and moaning that restoring American manufacturing can’t happen without months/years of buildup, and while we’re bitching that this drives away our allies straight into the arms of China, and no countries will want to have anything to do with us, that’s simply inaccurate. The fact is that we’re not going to instantly become irrelevant in a brand new world order. We’re not going to instantly lose all economic power in the world at large. Ultimately, most countries will still earnestly try to finds some type of accommodations no matter how pissed they are (and probably rightfully so). The more we sit here and envision worse and worse outcomes, the more the global market tanks, the more leverage he has in the negotiations.
The more pissed you are, the more scared you are, the more credibility you give this threat, the more actual leverage and power you give the asshat. And over nothing. The guy is still infatuated with his legacy. He’s not going to kill the global economy, and while he’s not as brilliant as he or the MAGATS believe, he’s not as stupid as @Axtremus …. believes he is… But he is a hardass, and youn’z are feeding right in.
The Brad
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I’ll put a bottle of decent booze on the line that says the market is trading at least at 43.5K in September, 2025.
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More and more I am feeling like the overreaction is what he is looking for. He wants the panic, he wants the global markets to temporarily tank. He wants everyone’s sphincters to get tight enough to turn a turd into a diamond. While we’re all sitting here, bitching and moaning that restoring American manufacturing can’t happen without months/years of buildup, and while we’re bitching that this drives away our allies straight into the arms of China, and no countries will want to have anything to do with us, that’s simply inaccurate. The fact is that we’re not going to instantly become irrelevant in a brand new world order. We’re not going to instantly lose all economic power in the world at large. Ultimately, most countries will still earnestly try to finds some type of accommodations no matter how pissed they are (and probably rightfully so). The more we sit here and envision worse and worse outcomes, the more the global market tanks, the more leverage he has in the negotiations.
The more pissed you are, the more scared you are, the more credibility you give this threat, the more actual leverage and power you give the asshat. And over nothing. The guy is still infatuated with his legacy. He’s not going to kill the global economy, and while he’s not as brilliant as he or the MAGATS believe, he’s not as stupid as @Axtremus …. believes he is… But he is a hardass, and youn’z are feeding right in.
Ultimately, most countries will still earnestly try to finds some type of accommodations no matter how pissed they are (and probably rightfully so).
There’s much more to it than just that when you live outside the USA.
And yes, he is just as incompetent and stupid as Ax vicariously maintains along with a host of other very intelligent and capable people who tried in vain to work with him during his first term regularly attest. I do not feel the need to list any of their names. You know them and their narratives all too well.
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Ultimately, most countries will still earnestly try to finds some type of accommodations no matter how pissed they are (and probably rightfully so).
There’s much more to it than just that when you live outside the USA.
And yes, he is just as incompetent and stupid as Ax vicariously maintains along with a host of other very intelligent and capable people who tried in vain to work with him during his first term regularly attest. I do not feel the need to list any of their names. You know them and their narratives all too well.
@Renauda said in Trumpenomics:
he is just as incompetent and stupid as Ax vicariously maintains along with a host of other very intelligent and capable people who tried in vain to work with him during his first term regularly attest.
His words, his actions and the opinions of those 1st term people - "F'ing moron" - weigh heavily. I do think he has some history of surviving - but his personal survival vs. the vitality of the people foolish enough to do business with him is another matter. Lufan - I hope I am wrong and you are right.
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I listened to Navarro and Bessent interviews today. They seem perfectly fine with "wall street" taking a hit, because now it's "main street's turn". They do not leave any room for hope that the tariffs might get negotiated away. I know that could just be the talking points in a 4D negotiation tactic, but somehow, I think they're committed to these tariffs.
I am impressed by the fact that these top level cabinet members at the heart of economic decisions, are going on all these shows. They were on mainstream, opposition media, like Meet the Press. But their answers, where they provide any beyond question avoidance, leave very little room for optimism that a crashing market matters to them. It seems almost part of the plan. One of them started to describe it as a "wealth redistribution", but caught himself and adjusted his wording.
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I listened to Navarro and Bessent interviews today. They seem perfectly fine with "wall street" taking a hit, because now it's "main street's turn". They do not leave any room for hope that the tariffs might get negotiated away. I know that could just be the talking points in a 4D negotiation tactic, but somehow, I think they're committed to these tariffs.
I am impressed by the fact that these top level cabinet members at the heart of economic decisions, are going on all these shows. They were on mainstream, opposition media, like Meet the Press. But their answers, where they provide any beyond question avoidance, leave very little room for optimism that a crashing market matters to them. It seems almost part of the plan. One of them started to describe it as a "wealth redistribution", but caught himself and adjusted his wording.
@Horace said in Trumpenomics:
I listened to Navarro and Bessent interviews today. They seem perfectly fine with "wall street" taking a hit, because now it's "main street's turn". They do not leave any room for hope that the tariffs might get negotiated away. I know that could just be the talking points in a 4D negotiation tactic, but somehow, I think they're committed to these tariffs.
I am impressed by the fact that these top level cabinet members at the heart of economic decisions, are going on all these shows. They were on mainstream, opposition media, like Meet the Press. But their answers, where they provide any beyond question avoidance, leave very little room for optimism that a crashing market matters to them. It seems almost part of the plan. One of them started to describe it as a "wealth redistribution", but caught himself and adjusted his wording.
Do they think maybe that their core voters don't have 401K's?
I wonder how long it can last before mainstream Republicans rebel.
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@Horace said in Trumpenomics:
I listened to Navarro and Bessent interviews today. They seem perfectly fine with "wall street" taking a hit, because now it's "main street's turn". They do not leave any room for hope that the tariffs might get negotiated away. I know that could just be the talking points in a 4D negotiation tactic, but somehow, I think they're committed to these tariffs.
I am impressed by the fact that these top level cabinet members at the heart of economic decisions, are going on all these shows. They were on mainstream, opposition media, like Meet the Press. But their answers, where they provide any beyond question avoidance, leave very little room for optimism that a crashing market matters to them. It seems almost part of the plan. One of them started to describe it as a "wealth redistribution", but caught himself and adjusted his wording.
Do they think maybe that their core voters don't have 401K's?
I wonder how long it can last before mainstream Republicans rebel.
@Doctor-Phibes I think they are sane enough to know that whatever they are doing, has to be palatable to the stock market by mid-terms. Otherwise they hand the Democrats the easiest slam-dunk campaign talking point imaginable, which is that they'll immediately pass legislation to end the tariffs. There's no doubt in my mind that the GOP will lose elections over this, unless they can reverse the damage. Manufacturing jobs just aren't as viscerally important to people as their retirement nest eggs are. Not that there will be any new manufacturing jobs in any politically viable time frame anyway.
Actually I think it may be Trump's bad luck that he did this while the market teetered on extremely high valuations. Any nudge might have toppled the house of cards. But this toppling is indelibly linked to the tariffs, and I'm glad for that, because tariffs suck, and America needs to learn that.
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@Doctor-Phibes I think they are sane enough to know that whatever they are doing, has to be palatable to the stock market by mid-terms. Otherwise they hand the Democrats the easiest slam-dunk campaign talking point imaginable, which is that they'll immediately pass legislation to end the tariffs. There's no doubt in my mind that the GOP will lose elections over this, unless they can reverse the damage. Manufacturing jobs just aren't as viscerally important to people as their retirement nest eggs are. Not that there will be any new manufacturing jobs in any politically viable time frame anyway.
Actually I think it may be Trump's bad luck that he did this while the market teetered on extremely high valuations. Any nudge might have toppled the house of cards. But this toppling is indelibly linked to the tariffs, and I'm glad for that, because tariffs suck, and America needs to learn that.
@Horace said in Trumpenomics:
tariffs suck, and America needs to learn that
Government intervention in the name of protectionism is totally counter to traditional conservative values. I think large numbers of Republicans must still believe this. Maybe they're actually hoping that MAGA burns on the lighthouse rocks of mixed-metaphor, and think this might be the best way to get rid of the goblins who are in the process of taking over the castle.
I was only joking
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@Horace said in Trumpenomics:
tariffs suck, and America needs to learn that
Government intervention in the name of protectionism is totally counter to traditional conservative values. I think large numbers of Republicans must still believe this. Maybe they're actually hoping that MAGA burns on the lighthouse rocks of mixed-metaphor, and think this might be the best way to get rid of the goblins who are in the process of taking over the castle.
@Doctor-Phibes said in Trumpenomics:
@Horace said in Trumpenomics:
tariffs suck, and America needs to learn that
Government intervention in the name of protectionism is totally counter to traditional conservative values. I think large numbers of Republicans must still believe this. Maybe they're actually hoping that MAGA burns on the lighthouse rocks of mixed-metaphor, and think this might be the best way to get rid of the goblins who are in the process of taking over the castle.
I guess it's a good thing in the long term, if this lesson can be very well learned.
In fairness, it was already pretty well learned, and there is no way Trump would have won if people had believed he'd do these sorts of tariffs. He'd have still gotten plenty of votes, but this single issue would easily have swayed enough people to overcome his 1 or 2% victory margins in swing states. People care deeply about their money, that they've sacrificed through their lives to accumulate. Not to state the obvious.
I know he's talked about how much he loves tariffs his whole life, but Trump 1.0 still didn't attempt anything like this.
