From the department of bad ideas
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What are the odds a modern chip making plant goes live in the US during his administration that wasn’t already in the works from the chips act?
@jon-nyc said in From the department of bad ideas:
What are the odds a modern chip making plant goes live in the US during his administration that wasn’t already in the works from the chips act?
Probably not good, but you have to start somewhere. Chips, like steel, have strategic value. Remember the Russian problem in Ukraine?
Taiwan is a speed bump for the Chinese. Oh, we can make it a costly one, but we're not going into a major war over the island.
So there goes your major chip supplier, and as you said, factories take time.
What is your solution?
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I’d subsidize building here. Americans pay either way and in the mean time we don’t toast a friendly.
Also, it wouldn’t punish the AI and other American tech firms that desperately need their output. Especially now that China may have just leap frogged us.
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I’d subsidize building here. Americans pay either way and in the mean time we don’t toast a friendly.
Also, it wouldn’t punish the AI and other American tech firms that desperately need their output. Especially now that China may have just leap frogged us.
@jon-nyc said in From the department of bad ideas:
I’d subsidize building here. Americans pay either way and in the mean time we don’t toast a friendly.
Also, it wouldn’t punish the AI and other American tech firms that desperately need their output. Especially now that China may have just leap frogged us.
Carrots rather than sticks, IOW.
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So, do people (e.g. President Trump) think that the Taiwan manufactures will accept a slow down in production? Or will they look for other markets to sell to, maybe some that the US would rather not they do so?
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So, do people (e.g. President Trump) think that the Taiwan manufactures will accept a slow down in production? Or will they look for other markets to sell to, maybe some that the US would rather not they do so?
@taiwan_girl said in From the department of bad ideas:
So, do people (e.g. President Trump) think that the Taiwan manufactures will accept a slow down in production? Or will they look for other markets to sell to, maybe some that the US would rather not they do so?
I don't think many people honestly believe that tariffs are a good idea. Hopefully, this is a bargaining chip rather than a real intention to fuck up international trade.
I was only joking
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We just watched the threat of tariffs cause Colombia to back off their posturing about not accepting their own citizens except on their own very specific terms. We've also watched the Biden admin maintain tariffs on China that Trump initiated. It has always been reasonable not to take Trump seriously with his "flat tariff on everything" talk during the campaign. Maybe it's also reasonable to respect tariffs as a powerful negotiating tool for America.
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What precisely are we trying to get out of Taiwan?
Only non-witches get due process.
- Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
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@taiwan_girl said in From the department of bad ideas:
So, do people (e.g. President Trump) think that the Taiwan manufactures will accept a slow down in production? Or will they look for other markets to sell to, maybe some that the US would rather not they do so?
I don't think many people honestly believe that tariffs are a good idea. Hopefully, this is a bargaining chip rather than a real intention to fuck up international trade.
Hopefully, this [a regime of punitive tariffs] is a bargaining chip rather than a real intention to fuck up international trade..
I would caution you on being too hopeful in this regard. While FUBARing international trade and investment may not be overall intent, the policy will accomplish precisely that and will result in countervailing tariffs on American exports as well as the possibility of any number of export controls including outright prohibitions on goods going into the US from countries adversely by the US levies.
It will get nasty if the Trump regime unilaterally proceeds down this ill advised and reckless path.
US consumers will suffer especially at the gas pump..
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Hopefully, this [a regime of punitive tariffs] is a bargaining chip rather than a real intention to fuck up international trade..
I would caution you on being too hopeful in this regard. While FUBARing international trade and investment may not be overall intent, the policy will accomplish precisely that and will result in countervailing tariffs on American exports as well as the possibility of any number of export controls including outright prohibitions on goods going into the US from countries adversely by the US levies.
It will get nasty if the Trump regime unilaterally proceeds down this ill advised and reckless path.
US consumers will suffer especially at the gas pump..
@Renauda said in From the department of bad ideas:
US consumers will suffer especially at the gas pump..
If that happens, it will be interesting to see who his followers blame for their predicament.
It seems that a number of the people who were so anti-inflationary haven't made the connection with what could happen if the tariffs are applied as threatened.
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Probably try to pin the blame on us because with a threatened 25% tariff on all goods from Canada that 4.2 million bbls / day of discounted crude we ship to the US refineries to ensure the USA’s daily fuel consumption at 19 million bbls / day is satisfied, no longer becomes cheap.
It could get more expensive if we begin to ease off on the daily delivery in retaliation.
Then there’s the hydro electricity from Ontario and Quebec that feeds into the northeast, both provinces are talking about flipping the switch.
Nothing is off the table.
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If inflation runs wild due to tariffs, the population will not be happy, including those who voted for him not because they deify him, but because they wanted economic change. Which accounts for a lot of the people who voted for him. I expect Trump to care about inflation, and not to defeat all his purposes with them. I know, I'm not supposed to respect Trump to that extent, but actually I do.
Education is extremely important.
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@jon-nyc said in From the department of bad ideas:
What precisely are we trying to get out of Taiwan?
Factories.
“Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”
Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton
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If inflation runs wild due to tariffs, the population will not be happy, including those who voted for him not because they deify him, but because they wanted economic change. Which accounts for a lot of the people who voted for him. I expect Trump to care about inflation, and not to defeat all his purposes with them. I know, I'm not supposed to respect Trump to that extent, but actually I do.
I expect Trump to care about inflation, and not to defeat all his purposes with them.
Possibly, although I think in his mind he truly believes he can control inflation by decree.
What might make him back off on reckless tariffs is when their consequences have a negative effect on the stock markets. Precisely that is what happened during his first term owing to his ill advised steel and aluminum tariffs. He quickly backed tracked. It did not take long either. Even Trump can’t fool the markets for any length of time.
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@jon-nyc said in From the department of bad ideas:
What precisely are we trying to get out of Taiwan?
Factories.
@Jolly said in From the department of bad ideas:
@jon-nyc said in From the department of bad ideas:
What precisely are we trying to get out of Taiwan?
Factories.
Yeah, but TSCM is already investing USD$XX billion at a plant in AZ. And, somebody said earlier that these factories take years to come up to operation. The biggest problem right now in the AZ plant is not the construction, but getting the proper labor.
Forcing TSCM and other Taiwanese semi-conductor companies to build in the US does not solve that problem.
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The one thing about Trump is he is not averse to reversing course. If he sees something going poorly, he’ll pull back and go in a different direction. Take the spending freeze. It was too confusing, people were bitching, and there was a legitimate shot that it would bite him in the ass. So he pulled it. If Trump sees inflationary reactions to fall that are actually incurred, he will pivot.
The Brad
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We’ll see. Just be prepared for gas at the pump to increase. That will be first. There will be also other consumer product increases across the board in short order. That’s how it works when integrated supply chains such as they are North America are disrupted.
Also, expect other countries to retaliate on the import of US goods and services not only in kind but in concert as well.
