What Trump voters are going to be disappointed about.

[jon-nyc]

One man’s guess.

@Horace I’m answering your question here so as not to derail the other thread. Plus I have a feeling this thread will be pretty useful to revisit over the next couple of years.

1. Gas won’t go under $2

2. Grocery prices won’t get lower.

3. Car insurance rates won’t substantially decrease (I think 50% is the number Trump threw around)

4. Home prices and rent won’t go down

5. The Russia-Ukraine war won’t end on January 21st.

That’s a good start off the top of my head.

[Horace]

A good lawyer doesn't ask a question he doesn't already know the answer to. Ok then. You are on the board with, these specific policy and economic and geoplitical concerns, when it comes to Trump supporters? They will be dismayed if by some quantitative measure, these things are not satisfied? Is that your play? These people have specific concerns that will either be addressed or not addressed in some quantifiable way, which you are capable of defining at this moment?

I kid.

[jon-nyc]

Yes. Not only have I read the minds of all the Trump voters I’ve also developed a way to quantify the magnitude of beliefs in a given proposition such that I can definitively determine the ranking of subsequent disappointments.

[Horace]

@jon-nyc said in What Trump voters are going to be disappointed about.:

Yes. Not only have I read the minds of all the Trump voters I’ve also developed a way to quantify the magnitude of beliefs in a given proposition such that I can definitively determine the ranking of subsequent disappointments.

what I managed to relate, is that you have no actual definable point. And that's ok. We're just here for giggles, and rhetoric.

[jon-nyc]

The post was substantive and declarative and directly addressed your question.

[Horace]

@jon-nyc said in What Trump voters are going to be disappointed about.:

The post was substantive and declarative. You’re wrong.

Maybe it was. Make a prediction. Maybe I missed it. You're definitely smart enough to know that predictive power is intellectual power, so make some kind of prediction, I guess?

[Jolly]

@jon-nyc said in What Trump voters are going to be disappointed about.:

Gas won’t go under $2

Grocery prices won’t get lower.

Car insurance rates won’t substantially decrease (I think 50% is the number Trump threw around)

Home prices and rent won’t go down

The Russia-Ukraine war won’t end on January 21st.

1. Anything in the mid-$2 range, as long as it is consistent, will probably work.
2. Probably not. But if wages go up without a corresponding uptick in food prices, I think everyone will be pleased.
3. Nope, that ain't happening.
4. Toss out a bunch of illegals and demand will decrease. Prices will at least stabilize for homes. Rent may actually go down.
5. No, but it's ending pretty soon. Zelensky knows it.

[Wim]

As to 1 and 5:
If Trump can manage to drill/produce more oil and throw it on the international market, Putin's oil revenues wil melt like snow from the sun. War in Uktain will soon be over then.

[Horace]

@Jolly said in What Trump voters are going to be disappointed about.:

@jon-nyc said in What Trump voters are going to be disappointed about.:

The Russia-Ukraine war won’t end on January 21st.

5. No, but it's ending pretty soon. Zelensky knows it.

I absolutely appreciate Trump's no-war perspective. Which would put me on the left, in days prior.

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in What Trump voters are going to be disappointed about.:

One man’s guess.

@Horace I’m answering your question here so as not to derail the other thread. Plus I have a feeling this thread will be pretty useful to revisit over the next couple of years.

1. Gas won’t go under $2

I heard lower prices, never heard $2. As @Jolly said $2.50 would sure look good…

2. Grocery prices won’t get lower.

Some will, some won’t. Deflation can be as bad as inflation.

3. Car insurance rates won’t substantially decrease (I think 50% is the number Trump threw around)

I never heard anything about car insurance at all.

4. Home prices and rent won’t go down

Rent may, but home buying being at the heart of generational wealth building was at the core of the Republican messaging. That means they don’t want real estate to deflate values. Maybe slow down… Beyond that, I would expect some deregulatory pushes to help ease the cost of new construction. Also, don’t forget https://www.boxabl.com/

5. The Russia-Ukraine war won’t end on January 21st.

Yeah, it will likely take up to March.

That’s a good start off the top of my head.

[jon-nyc]

@LuFins-Dad said in What Trump voters are going to be disappointed about.:

I never heard anything about car insurance at all.

[jon-nyc]

In fairness it’s possible he meant on his watch it’ll only go up 36.5%.

[Copper]

He stopped Hillary and Kamala.

Nothing he could do tops that.

His job is done.

[jon-nyc]

@Wim said in What Trump voters are going to be disappointed about.:

As to 1 and 5:
If Trump can manage to drill/produce more oil and throw it on the international market, Putin's oil revenues wil melt like snow from the sun. War in Uktain will soon be over then.

A little-discussed fact (except for here) is that our oil production reached its all time high under Biden. Doesn’t mean it can’t get higher, but he wasn’t able to do so in his first term.

[Axtremus]

There can a recession, may even be a great one under Trump, which may lead to all sorts of prices dropping. Immigration may also drop during severe economic recession.

Any prediction on recessions happening under Trump’s watch?

[Doctor Phibes]

@jon-nyc said in What Trump voters are going to be disappointed about.:

In fairness it’s possible he meant on his watch it’ll only go up 36.5%.

[Jolly]

@Copper said in What Trump voters are going to be disappointed about.:

He stopped Hillary and Kamala.

Nothing he could do tops that.

His job is done.

I dunno. He absolutely wrecked Biden's reputation, along with the other.

[LuFins Dad]

@jon-nyc said in What Trump voters are going to be disappointed about.:

@Wim said in What Trump voters are going to be disappointed about.:

As to 1 and 5:
If Trump can manage to drill/produce more oil and throw it on the international market, Putin's oil revenues wil melt like snow from the sun. War in Uktain will soon be over then.

A little-discussed fact (except for here) is that our oil production reached its all time high under Biden. Doesn’t mean it can’t get higher, but he wasn’t able to do so in his first term.

Little discussed? It was discussed all the freaking time. The one factor that everybody kept ignoring in the conversations is that it takes years for new wells to get dug and start producing, and that production increases over time. Also ignored was the fact that oil imports into the US had declined drastically over Trump’s administration, but has raised every year under Biden’s.

So oil production will go up over the next 4 years as the new wells continue to come online and increase production. The question is how quickly can we get new wells in the ground, and what steps can be taken to get more nuclear plants up and running.

[jon-nyc]

The latter question is sooo important. AI is going to need it.

Re your first point, Republicans lied about it and Dems were afraid to highlight it. That’s what I mean by little discussed.

[Jolly]

If they sell it well, I think small nuclear is where the strength of the argument lies.

And I wouldn't give up on solar, especially in certain applications. I also would keep plugging on hydrogen...Especially when production is tied to wind, some forms of hydro or solar.

The problem with hydrogen is it takes more energy to make it than what you get out of it. The problem with solar is storage of excess capacity or cloudy days when power generation falls off. Maybe using solar for hydrogen kills two birds with one stone.