If Assad falls....

[jon-nyc]

[George K]

Who is Abu Mohammed al-Golani

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Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the militant leader whose stunning insurgency toppled Syria’s President Bashar Assad, has spent years working to remake his public image, renouncing longtime ties to al-Qaida and depicting himself as a champion of pluralism and tolerance. As he entered Damascus behind his victorious fighters Sunday, he even dropped his nom de guerre and referred to himself with his real name, Ahmad al-Sharaa.

The extent of that transformation from jihadi extremist to would-be state builder is now put to the test.

Insurgents control Damascus, Assad has fled into hiding, and for the first time after 50 years of his family’s iron hand, it is an open question how Syria will be governed.

Syria is home to multiple ethnic and religious communities, often pitted against each other by Assad’s state and years of war. Many of them fear the possibility that Sunni Islamist extremists will take over. The country is also fragmented among disparate armed factions, and foreign powers from Russia and Iran to the United States, Turkey and Israel all have their hands in the mix.

Hours after Damascus’ capture, the 42-year-old al-Sharaa made his first appearance in the city’s landmark Umayyad Mosque, declaring Assad’s fall “a victory for the Islamic nation.” A senior rebel commander, Anas Salkhadi, appeared on state TV to declare, “Our message to all the sects of Syria, is that we tell them that Syria is for everyone,”

Al-Sharaa, who has been labeled a terrorist by the United States, and his insurgent force, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS – many of whose fighters are jihadis -- now stand to be a major player.

For years, al-Sharaa worked to consolidate power, while bottled up in the province of Idlib in Syria’s northwest corner as Assad’s Iranian- and Russian-backed rule over much of the country appeared solid.

He maneuvered among extremist organizations while eliminating competitors and former allies. He sought to polish the image of his de-facto “salvation government” that has been running Idlib to win over international governments and reassure Syria’s religious and ethnic minorities. And he built ties with various tribes and other groups.

[bachophile]

@jon-nyc said in If Assad falls....:

After today, the only Iranian proxies left standing are the Houthis and the Ivy League.

Lol

[Tom-K]

Jihadis are like bacon.

The only thing better than bacon is more bacon and the only thing worse than Jihadis are more Jihadis. And I think that's what we may have here.

[Mik]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/khamenei-loses-everything/ar-AA1vunNr

[Mik]

Aha! I KNEW we were up to our necks in this. Good move and kudos to the Biden admin.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-pounds-isis-camps-in-syria-after-assad-flees/ar-AA1vuk5m

[jon-nyc]

@Mik

and A-10 close-air support attack aircraft "to ensure that ISIS does not seek to take advantage of the current situation to reconstitute in central Syria,"

You know those guys had the most fun.

[Mik]

I still can't believe they want to retire the Warthog.

[taiwan_girl]

@Mik said in If Assad falls....:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/khamenei-loses-everything/ar-AA1vunNr

Interesting article.

To play "what if" - if we hadn't supported Ukraine as much as we did, would President Putin been able to direct more weapons/aid to Syria, which could have kept Assad in power, which could have helped Hezbollah, ..................

[jon-nyc]

That’s a factor, as is Israel keeping Iran busy.

[bachophile]

Sinwar wanted to change the Middle East on oct 7, and he did, only in exactly the opposite way he had planned.

[George K]

So this new "boss," supposedly has renounced Al-Queda.

THere's a not-too-small part of me that is skeptical.

[Mik]

A battle plan is only good until the battle starts.

[Mik]

@George-K said in If Assad falls....:

So this new "boss," supposedly has renounced Al-Queda.

THere's a not-too-small part of me that is skeptical.

I'd do that too until I consolidated power. Worked for the Taliban.

[jon-nyc]

I think he also retweeted one of his commander’s tweets about killing all Yazidi men and turning their women into sex slaves.

[jon-nyc]

The timing of this is just right for Trump to be able to screw the Kurds again.

[Renauda]

@Mik said in If Assad falls....:

@George-K said in If Assad falls....:

So this new "boss," supposedly has renounced Al-Queda.

THere's a not-too-small part of me that is skeptical.

I'd do that too until I consolidated power. Worked for the Taliban.

If he can consolidate power. A big if. From what I have garnered the past few days is that there are a lot of bosses and factions among the rebel rabble. Many are quite out there in their militancy and fanaticism. He will have to be sufficiently aggressive and charismatic to remain in the forefront.

[Mik]

Afghanistan II. Swell.

[Renauda]

@Mik

Probably more like Iraq or, at best, Lebanon.

[taiwan_girl]