Economic Expectations

[taiwan_girl]

In most elections, I think that the economy is one of (if not the) top items for voters.

So, two years from now, where do you think that the economy will be?

Currently:
Inflation = 2.4%
GDP (yearly) = 2.8%
Unemployment = 4.1%
Stock Market (since Biden took office) = up 50%

Any other items worth to track?

[Horace]

Stock market is quite elated today. How does one understand that, if economically ruinous tariffs are coming?

[taiwan_girl]

@Horace said in Economic Expectations:

Stock market is quite elated today. How does one understand that, if economically ruinous tariffs are coming?

Stock market jumped quite a bit in November 2020 also. I think that the stock market just likes "certainty" maybe more than who won.

[Horace]

@taiwan_girl said in Economic Expectations:

@Horace said in Economic Expectations:

Stock market is quite elated today. How does one understand that, if economically ruinous tariffs are coming?

Stock market jumped quite a bit in November 2020 also. I think that the stock market just likes "certainty" maybe more than who won.

Then we differ in our guess about how the market would have reacted today, had Harris won. Long term, is still an unknown of course. The stock market has melted up through the Biden presidency, in part because inflation hits stock prices too. The stock market is a hedge against inflation.

[LuFins Dad]

Stop getting all serious and stuff… Today is about those delicious salty liberal tears!

[LuFins Dad]

Link to video

[taiwan_girl]

@Horace said in Economic Expectations:

The stock market has melted up through the Biden presidency, in part because inflation hits stock prices too. The stock market is a hedge against inflation.

Someone smarter than me (like you @Horace. :)) could probably plot historical stock market returns to take into account inflation.

But, I would still guess that the results would show minimum difference between a Republic president and a Democrat president.

[jon-nyc]

@Horace said in Economic Expectations:

Stock market is quite elated today. How does one understand that, if economically ruinous tariffs are coming?

I imagine the markets expect Elon and others to reign him in. My guess is current market sentiment is because they’re happy he’s the one presiding over the extension of the 2017 tax bill provisions.

[George K]

@jon-nyc said in Economic Expectations:

I imagine the markets expect Elon and others to reign him in

*rein...

[Horace]

@jon-nyc said in Economic Expectations:

@Horace said in Economic Expectations:

Stock market is quite elated today. How does one understand that, if economically ruinous tariffs are coming?

I imagine the markets expect Elon and others to reign him in.

Hm. A theory of mind for someone to not take him seriously. Right there, plausible, easily imagined.

My guess is current market sentiment is because they’re happy he’s the one presiding over the extension of the 2017 tax bill provisions.

So they are taking very seriously the tax bill extension, but not seriously the economically ruinous tariffs, and they are putting their money where their mouths are. That's more than can be said for anybody who takes seriously the economically ruinous tariffs, who do not put their money where their mouths are. It's almost as if the serious contemplation of economically ruinous tariffs, was empty election rhetoric.

[jon-nyc]

Except it’s not! This is up there with opposition to rent control in terms of agreement among economists.

[jon-nyc]

I listened to an interview with a guy from Cato who cautioned against assuming this was just more verbal diarrhea from Trump. He says tariffs and protectionism might well be the only policy preference he’s held for consistently for decades. He cited letters to the NYT Trump wrote in the 80s when everyone was worried about Japan.

[Horace]

@jon-nyc said in Economic Expectations:

Except it’s not! This is up there with opposition to rent control in terms of agreement among economists.

You missed the point. I am sure there is agreement about the effects of tariffs in some idealized thought experiments. The issue is those conclusions being put to election talking points against Trump, when the idealized thought experiment was smuggled in as what would definitely happen if Trump were elected. And of course the world is now demonstrably rejecting that notion, as we watch where its money goes, rather than listen to where its mouth went before the election.

[Horace]

@jon-nyc said in Economic Expectations:

I listened to an interview with a guy from Cato who cautioned against assuming this was just more verbal diarrhea from Trump. He says tariffs and protectionism might well be the only policy preference he’s held for consistently for decades. He cited letters to the NYT Trump wrote in the 80s when everyone was worried about Japan.

Most of us understand that if Trump sees his policies destroying things such as the American economy, by measures such as the stock market, he will change course. We have also observed the Biden administration not repeal his tariffs on China, and we have noticed that the talking heads on the left are incapable of discussing why from any rational perspective.

[jon-nyc]

Generally people recognize a difference between targeted tariffs for national security and generalized tariffs on all goods. Having said that, Biden has always had a bit of protectionist instincts himself.

[jon-nyc]

It’s also worth noting that domestic corporations will benefit from tariffs. Much of that 4k per year per family ultimately goes to them.