The headlines for the jobs report are hilarious with their partisanship
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NY Times - US Jobs Report Shows 12,000 New Jobs in October Amid Strikes, Storms
CNN - Messy US Jobs Report Muddied by Strikes and Storms
CNBC -US Economy Added Just 12K Jobs in October, Impacted by Hurricanes and Boeing Strike
FOX - US Economy Added 12,000 Jobs in October, Well Below Economists Expectations
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No Spin - The numbers weren't good and don't be surprised if they are later revised downward, as seems to be the norm with this administration.
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No Spin - The numbers weren't good and don't be surprised if they are later revised downward, as seems to be the norm with this administration.
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Here's another view, although I think Market Watch is a NPR affiliate.
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this goes on every president. We talked about his before.
For example, from 2019
https://www.politifact.com/article/2019/sep/12/revisions-jobs-data-what-you-need-know/
The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that, according to preliminary data, 501,000 fewer jobs had been created between March 2018 to March 2019 than officials had initially estimated.
https://thedispatch.com/article/jobs-report-revisions-explained/
Every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) conducts two surveys: the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey and the Current Population Survey (CPS). The CPS, which the Census Bureau conducts by a sample survey of 60,000 households by phone call, is how the BLS arrives at the unemployment rate. The CES, on the other hand, surveys around 119,000 non-agricultural businesses and government agencies, providing the BLS with the data needed for the monthly jobs numbers, which the agency describes as estimates. These businesses respond to the survey voluntarily—they are not required to submit their employment numbers.
“For the jobs data, the way [the BLS does] it is they ask a company, ‘How many people did you have employed on the [payroll period] that includes the 12th of the month?’” Walsh told The Dispatch. Businesses often respond to these surveys late, and this data is not included in the data released at the beginning of the next month. This can lead to significant changes in the jobs report numbers as more responses are received, creating the need for revisions.
“CES estimates are considered preliminary when first published each month because not all respondents report their payroll data by the initial release of employment, hours, and earnings,” Stacey Standish, a BLS spokesperson, told The Dispatch. “For a given month, BLS publishes second preliminary estimates 1 month after the initial release and final sample-based estimates 2 months after the initial release. The estimates published with the second and third (final) releases incorporate additional data from respondents and corrected data.”
For the October report, the business response rate was unusually low, with only 62.2 percent of businesses filing on time—the smallest response rate for any September survey since 2002. Therefore, the stage is set for a possible large revision.
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this goes on every president. We talked about his before.
For example, from 2019
https://www.politifact.com/article/2019/sep/12/revisions-jobs-data-what-you-need-know/
The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that, according to preliminary data, 501,000 fewer jobs had been created between March 2018 to March 2019 than officials had initially estimated.
https://thedispatch.com/article/jobs-report-revisions-explained/
Every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) conducts two surveys: the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey and the Current Population Survey (CPS). The CPS, which the Census Bureau conducts by a sample survey of 60,000 households by phone call, is how the BLS arrives at the unemployment rate. The CES, on the other hand, surveys around 119,000 non-agricultural businesses and government agencies, providing the BLS with the data needed for the monthly jobs numbers, which the agency describes as estimates. These businesses respond to the survey voluntarily—they are not required to submit their employment numbers.
“For the jobs data, the way [the BLS does] it is they ask a company, ‘How many people did you have employed on the [payroll period] that includes the 12th of the month?’” Walsh told The Dispatch. Businesses often respond to these surveys late, and this data is not included in the data released at the beginning of the next month. This can lead to significant changes in the jobs report numbers as more responses are received, creating the need for revisions.
“CES estimates are considered preliminary when first published each month because not all respondents report their payroll data by the initial release of employment, hours, and earnings,” Stacey Standish, a BLS spokesperson, told The Dispatch. “For a given month, BLS publishes second preliminary estimates 1 month after the initial release and final sample-based estimates 2 months after the initial release. The estimates published with the second and third (final) releases incorporate additional data from respondents and corrected data.”
For the October report, the business response rate was unusually low, with only 62.2 percent of businesses filing on time—the smallest response rate for any September survey since 2002. Therefore, the stage is set for a possible large revision.
@taiwan_girl said in The headlines for the jobs report are hilarious with their partisanship:
I don't believe I ever claimed that this administration's report adjustments are an outlier. I'd be happy to admit my error if I did.
@LuFins-Dad 's post is about the reporting of the jobs data for this month. It's a "Be calm! All is well" type of thing. "The jobs were shitty because....."
My post simply posted the numbers for this administration is response to @jolly's comment.
My second post in this thread was a joke.
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@taiwan_girl said in The headlines for the jobs report are hilarious with their partisanship:
I don't believe I ever claimed that this administration's report adjustments are an outlier. I'd be happy to admit my error if I did.
@LuFins-Dad 's post is about the reporting of the jobs data for this month. It's a "Be calm! All is well" type of thing. "The jobs were shitty because....."
My post simply posted the numbers for this administration is response to @jolly's comment.
My second post in this thread was a joke.
@George-K said in The headlines for the jobs report are hilarious with their partisanship:
I don't believe I ever claimed that this administration's report adjustments are an outlier. I'd be happy to admit my error if I did.
I dont think you have either.
But I do think that President Biden has nothing to do with the numbers released (in the sense of controlling what number is given out). In fact from April 2021 to March 2022, job numbers were revised to INCREASE by a total of 462,000.
