If Trump wins the sunbelt and Harris wins the Blue Wall, we are going to hear an awful lot about the 2020 Census…
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That gives Kamala 270 and Trump 268… But…
Evidently the 2020 census severely undercounted Arkansas, Florida, Texas, Mississippi, Illinois, and Tennessee.
They also overcounted Delaware, Hawaii, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Utah, Colorado, and New York,.
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/pes-2020-undercount-overcount-by-state.html
The net effect of these mistakes? Florida should have 2 more representatives and 2 more electoral votes. Texas should have 1 more, while 3 liberal states would have 1 fewer. That would mean Trump would have been at 271 and Kamala at 268 if the appropriate corrections would have taken place.
