Funky Models
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A discussion here.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2024/09/04/atlantic-hurricane-season-forecasts-quiet/Some reasons given:
Tropical waves are too far north
Tropical waves, or the seedlings of storms and hurricanes, often emanate from Africa. The waves roll off the coast and over the warm waters of the tropical Atlantic, where they mature. These waves are embedded in the ITCZ, or the Intertropical Convergence Zone — a belt where colliding air from the Northern and Southern Hemispheres is forced upward, generating showers and storms.
The ITCZ wobbles about the tropics during the year, dipping south of the equator in the wintertime and lifting north in the summertime. At this time of year, it’s usually about as far north as it ordinarily gets — around 17.8 degrees north of the equator in Africa. But at present, it’s around 20 degrees North latitude. That means showers and storms are roughly 150 miles north of where they should be. That’s bringing downpours to the Sahara Desert, but it also means that tropical waves are emerging over cooler waters and ingesting drier air, causing them to fizzle before they have any chance to mature.It’s too warm in the upper atmosphere
Record-warm waters can help fuel a tropical storm, but they can’t get storms to form by themselves. Atmospheric conditions also have to be favorable so that the heat supplied by the warm oceans can rise and help form towering storm clouds.
But temperatures in the upper atmosphere are abnormally warm, too. Klotzbach wrote in an online analysis that the warm upper levels may be suppressing thunderstorm growth. Warm temperatures aloft act as a “lid” that “caps” showers and thunderstorms and inhibits surface air from rising. That might be stifling tropical waves, and cutting back on development potential.Harsh high-altitude winds
The same pattern bringing soaking rains to Africa is bringing enhanced easterly winds at the high altitudes over the eastern tropical Atlantic. That may be working to shred apart thunderstorm complexes before they can mature as tropical waves, tearing apart fledgling storms.Large-scale “chain reaction” processes
Everything in the atmosphere is interconnected. Currently, a packet of thunderstorms called the MJO, or Madden-Julian Oscillation, is present north of Australia and near Indonesia. This position of the MJO has historically been unfavorable for Atlantic hurricane development, since it leads to more sinking air, and disruptive high-altitude winds, over the Atlantic. Klotzbach expects this to be the case for the next 10 days or so but, by around Sept. 15, he anticipates more favorable conditions to arrive.
