Groupthink

[taiwan_girl]

@George-K said in Groupthink:

And, just like that, news organizations are reporting that Harris has erased the lead that Trump had over Biden.

Do you think that the reporting is incorrect or all the polls are incorrect?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

Even polls funded by Republic organizations show that, as well as Fox News, etc.

[LuFins Dad]

I think any polls taken the last week are next to useless.

[Jolly]

@taiwan_girl said in Groupthink:

@George-K said in Groupthink:

And, just like that, news organizations are reporting that Harris has erased the lead that Trump had over Biden.

Do you think that the reporting is incorrect or all the polls are incorrect?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

Even polls funded by Republic organizations show that, as well as Fox News, etc.

1. I think polls are not as reliable as they were a decade or two ago, especially this far out from the election.
2. There is a full court press currently in the media, generating a Harris Honeymoon.

So, ask yourself about the second point, why?

[LuFins Dad]

It would be expected for there to be a big break towards her initially, and then for things to fall back to earth.

As for 538, they are a mess since Silver left.

[Copper]

@Jolly said in Groupthink:

why?

chills

MSNBC, CNN left 'blown away,' with 'chills'

https://www.foxnews.com/media/msnbc-cnn-left-blown-away-chills-after-harris-first-campaign-speech-jumping-out-my-seat

[taiwan_girl]

@LuFins-Dad said in Groupthink:

It would be expected for there to be a big break towards her initially, and then for things to fall back to earth.

I agree.

@Jolly I think that polls are fairly unreliable, but I am pretty sure that it is not some sort of conspiracy. The link that I provided is just a summary of different polls, sponsored by a lot of different organizations. I have trouble believing that Fox News and Red Eagle Politics conspired with Northwest Progressive Institute to fake the numbers.

The numbers are real at the time they were taken. As Lufin points out, things will settle back in place, but it is what it is right now.

[Jolly]

@taiwan_girl said in Groupthink:

@LuFins-Dad said in Groupthink:

It would be expected for there to be a big break towards her initially, and then for things to fall back to earth.

I agree.

@Jolly I think that polls are fairly unreliable, but I am pretty sure that it is not some sort of conspiracy. The link that I provided is just a summary of different polls, sponsored by a lot of different organizations. I have trouble believing that Fox News and Red Eagle Politics conspired with Northwest Progressive Institute to fake the numbers.

The numbers are real at the time they were taken. As Lufin points out, things will settle back in place, but it is what it is right now.

The polls are currently not accurate. They will start to lock in around Labor Day.

Problem is, early voting is a huge wild card. Things change quickly in races. For example, many think if the 1968 election had been held on the third Tuesday of November, HHH would have been elected president.

[LuFins Dad]

@Jolly said in Groupthink:

@taiwan_girl said in Groupthink:

@LuFins-Dad said in Groupthink:

It would be expected for there to be a big break towards her initially, and then for things to fall back to earth.

I agree.

@Jolly I think that polls are fairly unreliable, but I am pretty sure that it is not some sort of conspiracy. The link that I provided is just a summary of different polls, sponsored by a lot of different organizations. I have trouble believing that Fox News and Red Eagle Politics conspired with Northwest Progressive Institute to fake the numbers.

The numbers are real at the time they were taken. As Lufin points out, things will settle back in place, but it is what it is right now.

The polls are currently not accurate. They will start to lock in around Labor Day.

Problem is, early voting is a huge wild card. Things change quickly in races. For example, many think if the 1968 election had been held on the third Tuesday of November, HHH would have been elected president.

Hell, in 2020, after the 2nd debate (and 1 month into early voting) Joe Biden made his anti-fracking statement and for the following 2 weeks “how do I change my mail in ballot” was one of the biggest google search phrases in Pennsylvania.

[Doctor Phibes]

@LuFins-Dad said in Groupthink:

@Jolly said in Groupthink:

@taiwan_girl said in Groupthink:

@LuFins-Dad said in Groupthink:

It would be expected for there to be a big break towards her initially, and then for things to fall back to earth.

I agree.

@Jolly I think that polls are fairly unreliable, but I am pretty sure that it is not some sort of conspiracy. The link that I provided is just a summary of different polls, sponsored by a lot of different organizations. I have trouble believing that Fox News and Red Eagle Politics conspired with Northwest Progressive Institute to fake the numbers.

The numbers are real at the time they were taken. As Lufin points out, things will settle back in place, but it is what it is right now.

The polls are currently not accurate. They will start to lock in around Labor Day.

Problem is, early voting is a huge wild card. Things change quickly in races. For example, many think if the 1968 election had been held on the third Tuesday of November, HHH would have been elected president.

Hell, in 2020, after the 2nd debate (and 1 month into early voting) Joe Biden made his anti-fracking statement and for the following 2 weeks “how do I change my mail in ballot” was one of the biggest google search phrases in Pennsylvania.

Maybe they should have the election half way through the Presidential term.

[George K]

@taiwan_girl said in Groupthink:

@George-K said in Groupthink:

And, just like that, news organizations are reporting that Harris has erased the lead that Trump had over Biden.

Do you think that the reporting is incorrect or all the polls are incorrect?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

Decision Desk HQ: