The Duck Curve
-
-
The news video gave a figure of $20k for the battery bank. That's on top of the cost for the panels, which is also going to be around $20k. So, we're $40k going in, for a system that won't break even for over ten years and has a lifespan of about 20 years.
Assuming 3% inflation, when that system needs replacing, it's going to cost a bit over $72k to replace. And that's assuming cheap Chinese solar panels are still available or that the cost of solar has come down.
“Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”
Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton
-
The news video gave a figure of $20k for the battery bank. That's on top of the cost for the panels, which is also going to be around $20k. So, we're $40k going in, for a system that won't break even for over ten years and has a lifespan of about 20 years.
Assuming 3% inflation, when that system needs replacing, it's going to cost a bit over $72k to replace. And that's assuming cheap Chinese solar panels are still available or that the cost of solar has come down.
@Jolly said in The Duck Curve:
The news video gave a figure of $20k for the battery bank. That's on top of the cost for the panels, which is also going to be around $20k. So, we're $40k going in, for a system that won't break even for over ten years and has a lifespan of about 20 years.
Assuming 3% inflation, when that system needs replacing, it's going to cost a bit over $72k to replace. And that's assuming cheap Chinese solar panels are still available or that the cost of solar has come down.
I agree with you. Solar or most alternative energy's do not make economic sense at the moment.
I have been involved with projects that are looking at eco-fuels (palm oil, jatropa, other biomass, even algae) and they are not quite economically good right now on their own.
But for solar, I think you are a bit too pessimistic on replacement costs. Think of computers - 20 years ago, you got a computer for 3x as much $$ with 1/100 of the power of computing. I think that will be the way with solar. Panel efficiency and battery efficiency will both improve at a pretty dramatic rate.
-
We do not fully know the impacts of having to trash or recycle all the solar panels and batteries we are building up right now.
Still, good thing California is trying something. Some one has to go first, and California can probably do it (and withstand the consequences) better than any one else.
-
We do not fully know the impacts of having to trash or recycle all the solar panels and batteries we are building up right now.
Still, good thing California is trying something. Some one has to go first, and California can probably do it (and withstand the consequences) better than any one else.
-
@Jolly said in The Duck Curve:
The news video gave a figure of $20k for the battery bank. That's on top of the cost for the panels, which is also going to be around $20k. So, we're $40k going in, for a system that won't break even for over ten years and has a lifespan of about 20 years.
Assuming 3% inflation, when that system needs replacing, it's going to cost a bit over $72k to replace. And that's assuming cheap Chinese solar panels are still available or that the cost of solar has come down.
I agree with you. Solar or most alternative energy's do not make economic sense at the moment.
I have been involved with projects that are looking at eco-fuels (palm oil, jatropa, other biomass, even algae) and they are not quite economically good right now on their own.
But for solar, I think you are a bit too pessimistic on replacement costs. Think of computers - 20 years ago, you got a computer for 3x as much $$ with 1/100 of the power of computing. I think that will be the way with solar. Panel efficiency and battery efficiency will both improve at a pretty dramatic rate.
@taiwan_girl said in The Duck Curve:
I have been involved with projects that are looking at eco-fuels (palm oil, jatropa, other biomass, even algae) and they are not quite economically good right now on their own.
I know the guy who has some of the U.S. patents on using wastewater sludge for biomass made fuel. Also knew of a guy who used the offal from a poultry processing plant for his biomass. Know of one company trying to start up a eco-diesel maritime fuel company, using tree biomass.
At least the guy with the wastewater idea got a Beta site going.
In all of the cases, they couldn't make money unless oil was over $70/barrel. That was one problem. The second problem was logistics.
I think the guy with the wastewater concept had the best idea. Locate your plant/refinery close to a major urban area, try to get your biomass for free (the sewer plants pay to have it hauled off now), and sell your fuel locally or regionally.
-
@taiwan_girl said in The Duck Curve:
I have been involved with projects that are looking at eco-fuels (palm oil, jatropa, other biomass, even algae) and they are not quite economically good right now on their own.
I know the guy who has some of the U.S. patents on using wastewater sludge for biomass made fuel. Also knew of a guy who used the offal from a poultry processing plant for his biomass. Know of one company trying to start up a eco-diesel maritime fuel company, using tree biomass.
At least the guy with the wastewater idea got a Beta site going.
In all of the cases, they couldn't make money unless oil was over $70/barrel. That was one problem. The second problem was logistics.
I think the guy with the wastewater concept had the best idea. Locate your plant/refinery close to a major urban area, try to get your biomass for free (the sewer plants pay to have it hauled off now), and sell your fuel locally or regionally.
@Jolly Agree on the oil price thing. Thailand had a plan to have 7% of transportation fuels coming from "eco fuels". That would not be possible with out government assistance. Currently on hold right now.
But having say that, the costs of production are coming down.
Diamond Green Diesel keeps expanding for example. And some of the cool things companies are doing with different starting points (algae, etc.) will make it more competitive.
