The Non-citizen Vote
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If you read the study they are referring to, the sample sizes are tiny. Less than 100 people admit to registering to vote illegally in 2008, and this is extrapolated to cover the entire population and conclude that illegal voting is significantly impacting election results.
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Twenty million adult non-citizens live in the U.S. They're saying that about 10% (low estimate) of them are registered to vote. Of those, half will vote. Because of motor voter, I suspect many of these non-citizens are registered while obtaining a driver's license.
That's one million votes. Furthermore, those votes are more concentrated in some areas more than others.
In a national election, a swing of ten or fifteen thousand non-citizen votes in one state, could be significant.
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Twenty million adult non-citizens live in the U.S. They're saying that about 10% (low estimate) of them are registered to vote. Of those, half will vote. Because of motor voter, I suspect many of these non-citizens are registered while obtaining a driver's license.
That's one million votes. Furthermore, those votes are more concentrated in some areas more than others.
In a national election, a swing of ten or fifteen thousand non-citizen votes in one state, could be significant.
@Jolly said in The Non-citizen Vote:
Twenty million adult non-citizens live in the U.S. They're saying that about 10% (low estimate) of them are registered to vote. Of those, half will vote. Because of motor voter, I suspect many of these non-citizens are registered while obtaining a driver's license.
That's one million votes. Furthermore, those votes are more concentrated in some areas more than others.
In a national election, a swing of ten or fifteen thousand non-citizen votes in one state, could be significant.
Right, but unless I’m misunderstanding the article they’re basing these assumptions on the response of about 300 people.
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At least the small sample size is not the result of a random internet vote. The pollsters tried to sample a decent cross section.
Many major polls with reputed 3% error rates only use 1000 person samples.
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At least the small sample size is not the result of a random internet vote. The pollsters tried to sample a decent cross section.
Many major polls with reputed 3% error rates only use 1000 person samples.
@Jolly said in The Non-citizen Vote:
At least the small sample size is not the result of a random internet vote. The pollsters tried to sample a decent cross section.
Many major polls with reputed 3% error rates only use 1000 person samples.
I’m no statistician but I have a hard time extrapolating from less than 100 in one area to a million illegal Democrat votes. And the assumption that this is a low ball figure seems to come from….?
I know a bunch of none citizens and none of them vote. Maybe I should extrapolate that too?
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Could also be area specific. Some places require more to vote than others.
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@Jolly said in The Non-citizen Vote:
Could also be area specific.
Right, so you really need a broad geographical sample before you can make any kind of assessment. The 'Just Facts' assessment is really anything but that. There's an awful lot of words and assumptions, and not a lot of actual hard data.
There's an engineering joke about marketing people deducing a trend from at most a single data point.
