Geeking out on the Fermi Paradox

[jon-nyc]

[George K]

It's all about scale, isn't it?

Couple of interesting (to me) comments.

First of all, The Three Body Problem addresses the time-to-travel question. The EVIL ALIENS are from Alpha Centauri - a scant 4 light years away - and have achieved the ability to travel at 0.1 C. So, knowing that the EVIL ALIENS are coming, Earth has about 450 years to prepare (remember, the EVIL ALIENS have to accelerate and decelerate to get here).

In his "Revelation Space" books, Alastair Reynolds addresses the Fermi Paradox - he's an astrophysicist, you know - by proposing that, millions of years ago, a race evolved which saw the potential for widespread destruction if all of these petty little worlds, like Earth, became star-faring. So, semi-autonomous machines, "Inhibitors," were deployed to destroy said worlds when they become space-faring and a threat. IOW, why haven't we heard from the aliens? Because they've been killed off.

In his TED talk, he mentions that much of what we see with Hubble is actually older than the solar system.

Link to video

Go to about 14:00 and he addresses "Where is everybody?"

[taiwan_girl]

@George-K said in Geeking out on the Fermi Paradox:

much of what we see with Hubble is actually older than the solar system.

Yes, that is interesting. If there is another planet looking at us through the distance, they could be seeing a Earth that is hundreds/thousands of years old with a very primitive civilization.

[George K]

I'm in the 2nd book of the "Three Body Problem..."

"Luo explains the dark forest hypothesis that underpinned his strategy, which he came to understand after reflecting on his conversation with Ye Wenjie: There is life everywhere in the galaxy, but since growth is constant and resources are finite, each galactic civilization is strongly incentivized to destroy any others upon discovery. The only defense against this is to remain unnoticed, thus explaining the Fermi paradox."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dark_forest_hypothesis

The "dark forest" hypothesis presumes that any space-faring civilization would view any other intelligent life as an inevitable threat and thus destroy any nascent life that makes itself known. As a result, the electromagnetic spectrum would be relatively quiet, without evidence of any intelligent alien life.[9][10]

A similar hypothesis, under the name "deadly probes", was described by astronomer and author David Brin in his 1983 summary of the arguments for and against the Fermi paradox.[11]

The name of the hypothesis derives from Liu Cixin’s 2008 novel The Dark Forest,[12] as in a "dark forest" filled with "armed hunter(s) stalking through the trees like ghosts".[13][14] Since the intentions of any newly contacted civilisation can never be known with certainty, meaning that, if one is encountered, it is best to shoot first and ask questions later, in order to avoid the potential extinction of one’s own species. The novel provides a detailed investigation of Brin's concerns about alien contact.[2]

Relationship to other proposed Fermi paradox solutions

The Berserker hypothesis, also known as the deadly probes scenario, proposes self-reproducing machines seek to destroy organic life.[3]: 112  The name derives from short stories by Fred Saberhagen written in the 1960s. The dark forest hypothesis is distinct from the Berserker hypothesis in that under the former, many alien civilizations could still exist provided they keep silent. The former can be viewed as a special case of the latter, if the deadly probes are (e.g. due to resource scarcity) only sent to star systems that show signs of intelligent life.[9]

Game theory

The dark forest hypothesis is a special case of the "sequential and incomplete information game" in game theory.[15][10][16]

In game theory, a "sequential and incomplete information game" is one in which all players act in sequence, one after the other, and none are aware of all available information.[17] In the case of this particular game, the only win condition is continued survival.[9] An additional constraint in the special case of the "dark forest" is the scarcity of vital resources.[10] The "dark forest" can be considered an extensive-form game with each "player" possessing the following possible actions: destroy another civilization known to the player; broadcast and alert other civilizations of one's existence; or do nothing.[15]

Science fiction versions

In addition to Fred Saberhagen's Berserker novels,[3]: 112  variations of these ideas have been used in other science fiction stories. These include Alistair Reynolds’ Redemption Ark series, Gregory Benford and Larry Niven in Starship, and Greg Bear in The Forge of God.

In 1987, science fiction author Greg Bear explored this concept that he called a "vicious jungle" in his novel The Forge of God.[18] In The Forge of God, humanity is likened to a baby crying in a hostile forest: "There once was an infant lost in the woods, crying its heart out, wondering why no one answered, drawing down the wolves." One of the characters explains, "We've been sitting in our tree chirping like foolish birds for over a century now, wondering why no other birds answered. The galactic skies are full of hawks, that's why. Planetisms that don't know enough to keep quiet, get eaten."[4]
The term "dark forest" was coined for the idea in 2008 by science fiction author Liu Cixin in his novel The Dark Forest.[19][2] In Liu Cixin's novel, the dark forest hypothesis is introduced by the character Ye Wenjie, while visiting her daughter's grave. She introduces three key axioms to a new field she describes as "cosmic sociology":[20][9]

1. "Suppose a vast number of civilizations distributed throughout the universe, on the order of the number of observable stars. Lots and lots of them. Those civilizations make up the body of a cosmic society. Cosmic sociology is the study of the nature of this super-society."[20]
2. Suppose that survival is the primary need of a civilization.
3. Suppose that civilizations continuously expand over time, but the total matter in the universe remains constant.

The only logical conclusion from the acceptance of these axioms, Ye says, is that any intelligent life in the universe will be pitted against all other life in the struggle for survival.[20][9]