The Taiwan invasion may be closer than we think
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This piece buttresses what I've been saying about Xi using Taiwan as a win domestically. It puts his unemployed youth to work in the military and keeps them off the streets. We, on the other hand, have been handing out munitions hand over fist in Ukraine.
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This piece buttresses what I've been saying about Xi using Taiwan as a win domestically. It puts his unemployed youth to work in the military and keeps them off the streets. We, on the other hand, have been handing out munitions hand over fist in Ukraine.
@Mik said in The Taiwan invasion may be closer than we think:
It puts his unemployed youth to work in the military and keeps them off the streets.
War is usually good for the economy - of the winning side, of course. *
There are those who say that the end of the great depression was not brought about by the New Deal, but by the US entry into WWII.
*Unless you're Japan or Germany. It just takes longer.
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How much American blood and treasure should the USA sacrifice to defend Taiwan? How much can we stomach?
In the case of Ukraine, so far it's quite a bit of treasurer (maybe over $100B by now?) but virtually no American blood (no American boots on the ground; no American flying combat missions). So far it seems sufficient in part because of the Russian military's incompetence. We also don't really rely on Ukraine much economically.
Would Taiwan represent a greater national interest for the USA than Ukraine? If the CCP tries to take Taiwan by force, should the USA invest more to defend Taiwan than we do Ukraine? The CCP's military is likely more competent than Russia's. And we rely on China for a lot of stuff -- Apple Inc. makes a lot of stuff there, Tesla makes a lot of stuff there, we just import a lot of stuff from China, low tech and high tech. It's not going to be as easy as going up against Russia in a proxy war.
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I think it would be very very difficult to take over Taiwan by military. If mainland China wants to "take over" taiwan, their best way is probably to try and blockaid Taiwan.
Taiwan is actually very mountainous - 2/3 of the island is mountains, kind of like Korea. It is not an easy landscape to fight in. (4000 m/13000 ft is the highest mountain, and there are at least 100 over 3000 m)
Of course, the western 1/3 of Taiwan is kind of flat, and that is where the majority of the population and industry is.
EDIT: Coupel of other points.
I think there would be a very unmotivated group of soldiers, maybe like in Russia. The youth of China is pretty disillusion about life in general right now, and I dont think that being sent to fight in Taiwan would help things.
An even bigger issue maybe domestically. The age of the soldiers means that they are a single child from two parents who are also single childs. So, there is a lot of focus on this child from six people, them being the hope for the future. Parent x 2, and grandparents x 4. Seeing the hope and focus of the family being killed/injured, as well as the family line ending, would I think be very difficult and drive domestic people against any military invasion soon after it started.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping bluntly told President Joe Biden during their recent summit in San Francisco that Beijing will reunify Taiwan with mainland China but that the timing has not yet been decided, according to three current and former U.S. officials.
Xi told Biden in a group meeting attended by a dozen American and Chinese officials that China’s preference is to take Taiwan peacefully, not by force, the officials said.
The Chinese leader also referenced public predictions by U.S. military leaders who say that Xi plans to take Taiwan in 2025 or 2027, telling Biden that they were wrong because he has not set a time frame, according to the two current and one former official briefed on the meeting.
Chinese officials also asked in advance of the summit that Biden make a public statement after the meeting saying that the United States supports China’s goal of peaceful unification with Taiwan and does not support Taiwanese independence, they said. The White House rejected the Chinese request.
Officials familiar with the conversation between Biden and Xi described the Chinese leader as blunt and candid, but not confrontational.
“His language was no different than what he has always said. He is always tough on Taiwan. He’s always had a tough line,” said a U.S. official with knowledge of the conversation.
Xi’s saber-rattling on Taiwan has been a top concern for Biden administration officials, who are aggressively trying to avoid a military conflict with China.
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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It is pretty common that when things are going bad domestically (in any country), it is very easy to blame outsiders to try and shift the attention of your citizens from their problems.
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Chinese President Xi Jinping bluntly told President Joe Biden during their recent summit in San Francisco that Beijing will reunify Taiwan with mainland China but that the timing has not yet been decided, according to three current and former U.S. officials.
Xi told Biden in a group meeting attended by a dozen American and Chinese officials that China’s preference is to take Taiwan peacefully, not by force, the officials said.
The Chinese leader also referenced public predictions by U.S. military leaders who say that Xi plans to take Taiwan in 2025 or 2027, telling Biden that they were wrong because he has not set a time frame, according to the two current and one former official briefed on the meeting.
Chinese officials also asked in advance of the summit that Biden make a public statement after the meeting saying that the United States supports China’s goal of peaceful unification with Taiwan and does not support Taiwanese independence, they said. The White House rejected the Chinese request.
Officials familiar with the conversation between Biden and Xi described the Chinese leader as blunt and candid, but not confrontational.
“His language was no different than what he has always said. He is always tough on Taiwan. He’s always had a tough line,” said a U.S. official with knowledge of the conversation.
Xi’s saber-rattling on Taiwan has been a top concern for Biden administration officials, who are aggressively trying to avoid a military conflict with China.
@George-K said in The Taiwan invasion may be closer than we think:
reunify Taiwan with mainland China but that the timing has not yet been decided
They have to chose which president they want to fight.
Both Trump and Biden have appeared soft on China, both have not.
Nikki Haley appeared tough on China, and soft.
If I was China, I'm not sure which I would want to fight.
It appears they can count on future generations being even softer.
https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/the-age-gap-in-perceptions-about
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@George-K said in The Taiwan invasion may be closer than we think:
reunify Taiwan with mainland China but that the timing has not yet been decided
They have to chose which president they want to fight.
Both Trump and Biden have appeared soft on China, both have not.
Nikki Haley appeared tough on China, and soft.
If I was China, I'm not sure which I would want to fight.
It appears they can count on future generations being even softer.
https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/the-age-gap-in-perceptions-about
@Copper said in The Taiwan invasion may be closer than we think:
Both Trump and Biden have appeared soft on China,
I am curious why you say this
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@Copper said in The Taiwan invasion may be closer than we think:
Both Trump and Biden have appeared soft on China,
I am curious why you say this
@taiwan_girl said in The Taiwan invasion may be closer than we think:
I am curious why you say this
Google Biden soft on China
Google Trump soft on ChinaPick your favorite, there are lots of headlines to choose from.
We don't know what either president would do until after the first shot is fired.
