Somewhat morbid - Based on Statistics, what are the odds of Supreme Court Judge Dying During Next President Term

[taiwan_girl]

there's a 21% chance that someone from that hypothetical group of nine people with identical ages and genders to the current Supreme Court will die within 1.5 years, incidentally the amount of time remaining on Biden's term. There's a 65% chance that someone dies within 5.5 years, which would bring us to the inauguration of January 2029, hypothetically.

https://www.businessinsider.com/probability-a-supreme-court-justice-dies-after-the-2024-election-2023-9?op=1

[Jolly]

All the more reason to vote Republican!

[jon-nyc]

How about age, gender, and obesity and race? They’re probably underestimating Thomas’s and Sotomayor’s chances if they’re just looking at age and sex.

[Copper]

And don't forget that part of the white privilege is extended lifespan.

That's still true, isn't it? They haven't taken that away too!

[George K]

We'd expect a group of people resembling the Supreme Court (a 75-year-old man, a 73-year-old man, a 69-year-old woman, and so on) to have a 50% chance of someone dying within 3.9 years.

Now look at the odds of an 80 year old male with a history of atrial fibrillation dying in the next 4 years.

SSA and other actuarial tables say expectancy is 88 years.

@jon-nyc said:

How about age, gender, and obesity and race? They’re probably underestimating Thomas’s and Sotomayor’s chances if they’re just looking at age and sex.

That's right. Isn't Sotomayor a Type 1 diabetic?