Manchin, Gabbard & Yang

[George K]

Wow.

I doubt they'd pull much support from the GOP. But from the Democrats? People have claimed that the Greens cost Hillary 2016.

I saw a poll (Quinnipiac) that says that 50% of Democrats are open to supporting someone other than Biden. That's a damning number.

[Jolly]

There's probably more. That's just the names that were mentioned.

[Axtremus]

@George-K said in Manchin, Gabbard & Yang:

I saw a poll (Quinnipiac) that says that 50% of Democrats are open to supporting someone other than Biden. That's a damning number.

1. Does that poll say anything about whether the “someone other than Biden” is or is not a Democrat?

2. What is the fraction of Republicans open to supporting someone other than [pick any GOP candidate of your choice]? And would you also consider that “damning”?

3. Is there a candidate who does not have such a “damning” number? If so, who?

[George K]

I'll let you dive into the deeper parts of the poll, my work is, for now, done.

@Axtremus here you go:

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3878

[Axtremus]

@George-K said in Manchin, Gabbard & Yang:

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3878

Thank you for the link. It appears that your own statement:

I saw a poll (Quinnipiac) that says that 50% of Democrats are open to supporting someone other than Biden.

is not supported by the poll.

[George K]

@Axtremus said in Manchin, Gabbard & Yang:

@George-K said in Manchin, Gabbard & Yang:

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3878

Thank you for the link. It appears that your own statement:

I saw a poll (Quinnipiac) that says that 50% of Democrats are open to supporting someone other than Biden.

is not supported by the poll.

Among Democrats and Democratic leaning voters who support a candidate in the 2024 Democratic presidential primary, 39 percent say they are firmly set on their choice for the Democratic nomination no matter what happens leading up to the Democratic primary, while 58 percent say they might change their candidate choice depending on what happens leading up to the Democratic primary.

Among those voters supporting Biden in the Democratic primary, 51 percent say they might change their candidate choice depending on what happens leading up to the Democratic primary, while 46 percent say they are firmly set on Biden no matter what happens leading up to the Democratic primary.

[LuFins Dad]

@George-K said in Manchin, Gabbard & Yang:

@Axtremus said in Manchin, Gabbard & Yang:

@George-K said in Manchin, Gabbard & Yang:

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3878

Thank you for the link. It appears that your own statement:

I saw a poll (Quinnipiac) that says that 50% of Democrats are open to supporting someone other than Biden.

is not supported by the poll.

Among Democrats and Democratic leaning voters who support a candidate in the 2024 Democratic presidential primary, 39 percent say they are firmly set on their choice for the Democratic nomination no matter what happens leading up to the Democratic primary, while 58 percent say they might change their candidate choice depending on what happens leading up to the Democratic primary.

Among those voters supporting Biden in the Democratic primary, 51 percent say they might change their candidate choice depending on what happens leading up to the Democratic primary, while 46 percent say they are firmly set on Biden no matter what happens leading up to the Democratic primary.

Reading comprehension fail. On Ax’s part.

[Axtremus]

@George-K said in Manchin, Gabbard & Yang:

@Axtremus said in Manchin, Gabbard & Yang:

@George-K said in Manchin, Gabbard & Yang:

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3878

Thank you for the link. It appears that your own statement:

I saw a poll (Quinnipiac) that says that 50% of Democrats are open to supporting someone other than Biden.

is not supported by the poll.

Among Democrats and Democratic leaning voters who support a candidate in the 2024 Democratic presidential primary, 39 percent say they are firmly set on their choice for the Democratic nomination no matter what happens leading up to the Democratic primary, while 58 percent say they might change their candidate choice depending on what happens leading up to the Democratic primary.

Among those voters supporting Biden in the Democratic primary, 51 percent say they might change their candidate choice depending on what happens leading up to the Democratic primary, while 46 percent say they are firmly set on Biden no matter what happens leading up to the Democratic primary.

The part you quote does not support your earlier statement.

[Mik]

Maybe that’s why Romney is not running for Senate

[George K]

I said in Manchin, Gabbard & Yang:

I saw a poll (Quinnipiac) that says that 50% of Democrats are open to supporting someone other than Biden.

Quinnipiac said:

Among Democrats and Democratic leaning voters ... 58 percent say they might change their candidate choice depending on what happens leading up to the Democratic primary.

Among those voters supporting Biden in the Democratic primary, 51 percent say they might change their candidate choice.

Please, type really slowly so I understand your point. What's the difference?

[LuFins Dad]

Manchin is the only one with a legitimate shot at pulling enough from both sides to make a difference.

[Axtremus]

@George-K said in Manchin, Gabbard & Yang:

Please, type really slowly so I understand your point. What's the difference?

Alright, your original statement claims that [1] "50% of Democrats are open to supporting someone other than Biden."

This statement from the poll report say [2] "Among Democrats and Democratic leaning voters ... 58 percent say they might change their candidate choice ..." The population here includes "Democrats" and "Democratic leaning voters." It does not tell you what fraction of those are "Democrats" and what fraction of those are "not Democrats who are merely Democratic leaning." Thus this statement does not support for your statement [1] that has "Democrats" as the population.

This statement from the poll report says [3] "Among those voters supporting Biden in the Democratic primary, ..." The population here includes only "voters supporting Biden in the Democratic primary." This population differs from the population in your statement [1] in at least two ways: (1) it refers to "voters" who are already supporting Biden in the Democratic primary, not "Democrats" in general, and (2) it includes primary voters who are are Democrats but can still vote in Democratic primary (e.g., in "open primary" states).

Since your statement [1] is based on "Democrats" as the population and statements [2] and [3] from the poll report are based on different populations, neither statement [2] nor statement [3] support your statement [1].

[George K]

@Axtremus said in Manchin, Gabbard & Yang:

@George-K said in Manchin, Gabbard & Yang:

Please, type really slowly so I understand your point. What's the difference?

Alright, your original statement claims that [1] "50% of Democrats are open to supporting someone other than Biden."

This statement from the poll report say [2] "Among Democrats and Democratic leaning voters ... 58 percent say they might change their candidate choice ..." The population here includes "Democrats" and "Democratic leaning voters." It does not tell you what fraction of those are "Democrats" and what fraction of those are "not Democrats who are merely Democratic leaning." Thus this statement does not support for your statement [1] that has "Democrats" as the population.

This statement from the poll report says [3] "Among those voters supporting Biden in the Democratic primary, ..." The population here includes only "voters supporting Biden in the Democratic primary." This population differs from the population in your statement [1] in at least two ways: (1) it refers to "voters" who are already supporting Biden in the Democratic primary, not "Democrats" in general, and (2) it includes primary voters who are are Democrats but can still vote in Democratic primary (e.g., in "open primary" states).

Since your statement [1] is based on "Democrats" as the population and statements [2] and [3] from the poll report are based on different populations, neither statement [2] nor statement [3] support your statement [1].

JFC

[LuFins Dad]

@George-K that’s the third time he’s come back this week!

[Doctor Phibes]

Manchin, Gabbard and Yang sounds like one of those dodgy lawyers offices.

Well it does.