China's decline - coming soon (another article)
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Don’t rejoice – China’s death throes will be a danger to us all.
Last year India surpassed China as the world’s most populous nation. That might be a marginal consideration until specifics are examined. The fact is, China’s population fell for the first time in 60 years, and China is now the fastest-aging nation in human history. As most know, the population replacement rate is 2.1 children per woman. China’s 2011-2020 census (as far as CCP numbers can be trusted) shows their replacement rate is 1.3 at best. Peter Zeihan has reported the replacement rate of women in highly populated urban areas like Shanghai is 0.7! Here is a demographic chart of China:
Now here is the chart for India, the nation whose population surpassed China last year:
Replacement rates, and these charts, tell us that China’s demographic collapse will occur within one generation – within a human lifetime! China’s worker-age population peaked in the last decade, and by 2050 will be less than half of what it was in 2020. The population collapse of China is not just starting, it is happening right now! And what will happen when China, at the end of the longest supply chains on the planet, cannot import sufficient amounts of fertilizers, food, energy and other basics because the United States no longer protects those supply chains? The Chinese navy, despite all the hype, cannot protect the cargo ships China must have from pirates, privateers, and unfriendly nations along those lengthy sea lanes. Neither can China’s navy protect Chinese exports.
Wall Street is beginning to catch on too. Ruchir Sharma, chairman of Rockefeller International, said: “something is rotten in the Chinese economy.” Observers have noted that the unemployment level of young Chinese is now 20% and growing. Chinese millionaires know it too. The Henley Private Wealth Migration Report stated China will have a 13,500 net loss of millionaires in 2023. The yuan and Chinese stock indexes are tumbling this year, with commentators calling China’s expected post-Covid rebound a “charade,” and some are even predicting China is headed for a “lost decade.”
Further evidence of the growing economic maelstrom is the Chinese debt to GDP ratio and the level of private credit. The United States debt ratio, after spending trillions in the last two years, was 123.4% of GDP in December 2022. Chinese debt is now 279.9% of GDP. The growth of private credit in China beggars belief, making ludicrous any notion the yuan could ever challenge the dollar as a global reserve currency.
The connections between China’s demographics, geography, and economy are becoming obvious. No workers, no products – not even dishwashers and refrigerators, let alone an army, a navy, jet aircraft, satellites, and rockets to establish bases on the moon. No imports of food and energy for any one of several likely reasons – immediate famine and economic collapse.Demographics don’t lie. China is a dying paper dragon.
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@Mik said in China's decline - coming soon (another article):
A hungry tiger is dangerous.
One of the predicates for Japan's attacks on the US was, presumably, the US oil, steel embargoes and imposition of banking regulations.
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As has been noted before:
China is the first country which is getting old before it got rich.
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Are we ready for the consequences of China’s collapse?
https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/09/prepared-for-the-fall/
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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Maybe Trump isn't as stupid as Jon thinks he is. Maybe there are some industries that do not need to leave these shores. Maybe we should trade freely with nations that do not steal our intellectual properties, through reverse engineering or industrial espionage, and not with those that do.
All that may not be good for Wall Street, but Wall Street is not the economy.
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Are we ready for the consequences of China’s collapse?
https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/09/prepared-for-the-fall/
@George-K said in China's decline - coming soon (another article):
Are we ready for the consequences of China’s collapse?
https://www.nationalreview.com/2023/09/prepared-for-the-fall/
Yes, I think we are.
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That's another discussion. It's well known that China does all those things repeatedly and enthusiastically.
@Mik said in China's decline - coming soon (another article):
That's another discussion. It's well known that China does all those things repeatedly and enthusiastically.
Correct. And many also require foreign companies that do business in mainland China to take on a local partner.
I have talked to a few people in that area, and most foreign companies sell at least one or two generation old technology to China as they know it will be tried to be reverse engineered.
