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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. The Virus "Good News" Thread.

The Virus "Good News" Thread.

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  • G Offline
    G Offline
    George K
    wrote on 1 Jul 2020, 13:40 last edited by
    #1

    Alex Berenson (NYT):

    Let's see how well this one ages: CDC says more than 20M cases

    Well, it means nearly one in every ten Americans have already had the coronavirus, which is a fairly gigantic finding. It also means many of these infected people had such mild cases they felt no need to receive treatment. In fact, it probably means the majority of the people who have had the coronavirus in this country never even knew they had it.

    But it also means, and this is perhaps the most significant data point, the coronavirus is far less deadly than we’ve been led to believe.

    In fact, the CDC study suggests the all age death rate from the virus is roughly .5%. Meaning 99.5% of all people infected with the coronavirus, regardless of age, recover. (There are other studies that suggest the .5% death rate is still far too high, but it’s still significant that the virus has a 99.5% recovery rate per the CDC).

    Now as a point of fact we know that deaths from the coronavirus are heavily slanted towards nursing homes and the elderly — most states report over half of all deaths in nursing homes — so this means, as was reported via a study by Stanford scientist John Ioannadis, most people in this country are under a greater risk of death driving to and from work than they are from the coronavirus.

    Herd immunity with lower threshold?

    Mathematicians from the University of Nottingham and University of Stockholm devised a simple model categorising people into groups reflecting age and social activity level. When differences in age and social activity are incorporated in the model, the herd immunity level reduces from 60% to 43%. The figure of 43% should be interpreted as an illustration rather than an exact value or even a best estimate. The research has been published today in Science.

    Oh, an "illustration" rather than an estimate. Le sigh.

    "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

    The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

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    • J Offline
      J Offline
      jon-nyc
      wrote on 1 Jul 2020, 14:54 last edited by
      #2

      I still don't have Covid.

      Only non-witches get due process.

      • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
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      • J Offline
        J Offline
        jon-nyc
        wrote on 1 Jul 2020, 14:54 last edited by
        #3

        Numbers in NY are still getting better.

        Only non-witches get due process.

        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
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        • C Offline
          C Offline
          Catseye3
          wrote on 1 Jul 2020, 14:59 last edited by Catseye3 7 Jan 2020, 15:00
          #4

          Too bad it's from the Lying New York Times.

          Oh, but wait! This story should benefit Trump! So I guess this is one of the rare instances when the Lying New York Times was telling the truth.

          Hard to keep track sometimes.

          Success is measured by your discipline and inner peace. – Mike Ditka

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          • H Offline
            H Offline
            Horace
            wrote on 1 Jul 2020, 15:42 last edited by
            #5

            Rand Paul's point about our need for optimism is useful here. These sorts of numbers do not get disseminated because they do not conform with our pessimism/fear maximization bias for COVID.

            Education is extremely important.

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            1 Jul 2020, 14:54


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