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The New Coffee Room

  1. TNCR
  2. General Discussion
  3. On protests, social-distancing, and COVID

On protests, social-distancing, and COVID

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  • J Online
    J Online
    jon-nyc
    wrote on 28 Jun 2020, 21:15 last edited by jon-nyc
    #1

    Analyzed 315 cities. Strong evidence that net stay-at-home behavior increased during the protests.

    IOW, non-protesters were hesitant or afraid to go out.

    It doesn't rule out the possibility that the net impact of the protests was negative from a public health perspective, though they didn't find any evidence for it in the timeframe they checked. But I agree with their point that predictions of broad consequences were too narrowly conceived.

    PS, I only read the abstract.

    https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408

    Only non-witches get due process.

    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
    L 1 Reply Last reply 28 Jun 2020, 21:23
    • J jon-nyc
      28 Jun 2020, 21:15

      Analyzed 315 cities. Strong evidence that net stay-at-home behavior increased during the protests.

      IOW, non-protesters were hesitant or afraid to go out.

      It doesn't rule out the possibility that the net impact of the protests was negative from a public health perspective, though they didn't find any evidence for it in the timeframe they checked. But I agree with their point that predictions of broad consequences were too narrowly conceived.

      PS, I only read the abstract.

      https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408

      L Offline
      L Offline
      Loki
      wrote on 28 Jun 2020, 21:23 last edited by
      #2

      @jon-nyc said in On protests, social-distancing, and COVID:

      Analyzed 315 cities. Strong evidence that net stay-at-home behavior increased during the protests.

      IOW, non-protesters were hesitant or afraid to go out.

      It doesn't rule out the possibility that the net impact of the protests was negative from a public health perspective though. But I agree with their point that predictions of broad consequences were too narrowly conceived.

      PS, I only read the abstract.

      https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408

      But but but you can’t catch Covid outside, that’s what the media told me. It’s not like the protesters hung out indoors before, during and after... because the media curiosity ends where the thesis might have a problem.

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      • H Offline
        H Offline
        Horace
        wrote on 28 Jun 2020, 21:25 last edited by
        #3

        Fun with statistics. From the abstract one might notice that the study authors had a conclusion in mind before they compiled their numbers. Maybe they can do a sequel study where they track wide spread mask aversion and its ability to keep other people indoors thus canceling out the concern.

        Education is extremely important.

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        • J Online
          J Online
          jon-nyc
          wrote on 28 Jun 2020, 21:29 last edited by jon-nyc
          #4

          I think it's interesting for the point about stay-at-home behavior, which had not occurred to me and which makes sense.

          I think their inability to find evidence of increasing case counts attributable to protests is worthless given their methodology and timeframe.

          Only non-witches get due process.

          • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
          1 Reply Last reply
          • H Offline
            H Offline
            Horace
            wrote on 28 Jun 2020, 21:32 last edited by
            #5

            That’s the sort of study WTG would trot out in response to a claim that protests spread COVID.

            Education is extremely important.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • J Online
              J Online
              jon-nyc
              wrote on 28 Jun 2020, 21:40 last edited by
              #6

              Plenty of people will over interpret it.

              Even before this study I've seen two headlines, one on NPR the other I don't remember, claiming no effect but they were for a particular city.

              I didn't even click them, it seems so obviously a combination of motivated reasoning and cherry picking.

              Same as the guy George quoted the other day.

              My evidentiary bar that SARS-COV-2 has picked a side in the US culture wars is going to be very high.

              Only non-witches get due process.

              • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
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              • H Offline
                H Offline
                Horace
                wrote on 28 Jun 2020, 21:43 last edited by Horace
                #7

                They can do a second sequel study where they establish that systemic racism serves to enhance motivation to overcome obstacles, providing a richer and more fulfilled life experience.

                Education is extremely important.

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