On protests, social-distancing, and COVID

[jon-nyc]

Analyzed 315 cities. Strong evidence that net stay-at-home behavior increased during the protests.

IOW, non-protesters were hesitant or afraid to go out.

It doesn't rule out the possibility that the net impact of the protests was negative from a public health perspective, though they didn't find any evidence for it in the timeframe they checked. But I agree with their point that predictions of broad consequences were too narrowly conceived.

PS, I only read the abstract.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408

[Loki]

@jon-nyc said in On protests, social-distancing, and COVID:

Analyzed 315 cities. Strong evidence that net stay-at-home behavior increased during the protests.

IOW, non-protesters were hesitant or afraid to go out.

It doesn't rule out the possibility that the net impact of the protests was negative from a public health perspective though. But I agree with their point that predictions of broad consequences were too narrowly conceived.

PS, I only read the abstract.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408

But but but you can’t catch Covid outside, that’s what the media told me. It’s not like the protesters hung out indoors before, during and after... because the media curiosity ends where the thesis might have a problem.

[Horace]

Fun with statistics. From the abstract one might notice that the study authors had a conclusion in mind before they compiled their numbers. Maybe they can do a sequel study where they track wide spread mask aversion and its ability to keep other people indoors thus canceling out the concern.

[jon-nyc]

I think it's interesting for the point about stay-at-home behavior, which had not occurred to me and which makes sense.

I think their inability to find evidence of increasing case counts attributable to protests is worthless given their methodology and timeframe.

[Horace]

That’s the sort of study WTG would trot out in response to a claim that protests spread COVID.

[jon-nyc]

Plenty of people will over interpret it.

Even before this study I've seen two headlines, one on NPR the other I don't remember, claiming no effect but they were for a particular city.

I didn't even click them, it seems so obviously a combination of motivated reasoning and cherry picking.

Same as the guy George quoted the other day.

My evidentiary bar that SARS-COV-2 has picked a side in the US culture wars is going to be very high.

[Horace]

They can do a second sequel study where they establish that systemic racism serves to enhance motivation to overcome obstacles, providing a richer and more fulfilled life experience.