"A policy failure of gigantic proportions”.
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Lockdown saved as few as 1,700 lives in England and Wales in spring 2020, according to a landmark study which concludes the benefits of the policy were “a drop in the bucket compared to the staggering collateral costs” imposed.
Scientists from Johns Hopkins University and Lund University examined almost 20,000 studies on measures taken to protect populations against Covid across the world.
Their findings suggest that lockdowns in response to the first wave of the pandemic, when compared with less strict policies adopted by the likes of Sweden, prevented as few as 1,700 deaths in England and Wales. In an average week there are around 11,000 deaths in England and Wales.
The report authors said their findings showed that the draconian measures had a “negligible impact” on Covid mortality and were a “policy failure of gigantic proportions”.
Johns Hopkins is one of the most respected medical schools in the world and became known during the pandemic for its Covid dashboard measuring cases and deaths all over the world.
The study’s authors conclude: “The science of lockdowns is clear; the data are in: the deaths saved were a drop in the bucket compared to the staggering collateral costs imposed.”
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On the positive side, most senior members of the British government pretty much ignored the restrictions, so their "ability" to govern wasn't impacted in any way.
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How long were the lockdowns?
In New York State it lasted 8 weeks. I don’t think it was a policy failure here, given (1) the severity of the initial outbreak in NYC, and (2) how little we knew at the time.
In other states it probably was a failure. At least in hindsight.
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I remember well the tenor of conversation here on TNCR at the time. The full-stop fear of getting sick was thick in the air, and the pricelessness of human life was an idea taken seriously.
@Horace said in "A policy failure of gigantic proportions”.:
I remember well the tenor of conversation here on TNCR at the time. The full-stop fear of getting sick was thick in the air, and the pricelessness of human life was an idea taken seriously.
I’ll cop to the former, the transplant physicians were genuinely worried it would be a death sentence for us. Indeed for many it was and still is. I had a transplant friend die of Covid as recently as April 15th (some 2 days before I tested positive).
I don’t remember anyone here adopting the latter view.
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I think I thought the collateral costs were staggering at the time. And we aren’t finished paying yet.
@Copper said in "A policy failure of gigantic proportions”.:
I think I thought the collateral costs were staggering at the time. And we aren’t finished paying yet.
True but you thought the flu was worse. I don’t know how you thought that, but you did. And for someone who sincerely believed that, pretty much any public mitigation efforts would be overkill
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NO ONE KNEW ANYTHING other than the hellish conditions in Lombardy. I think some of the restrictions that continued went on too long, but again, we don't really know. From this article it would appear that masking was our most effective tool.
It's easy to look at it as someone you don't know would have died. Harder when it's your parent or spouse or child.
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How long were the lockdowns?
In New York State it lasted 8 weeks. I don’t think it was a policy failure here, given (1) the severity of the initial outbreak in NYC, and (2) how little we knew at the time.
In other states it probably was a failure. At least in hindsight.
@Jon said in "A policy failure of gigantic proportions”.:
How long were the lockdowns?
In New York State it lasted 8 weeks. I don’t think it was a policy failure here, given (1) the severity of the initial outbreak in NYC, and (2) how little we knew at the time.
In other states it probably was a failure. At least in hindsight.
That’s disingenuous at best. NY entered Phase 1 of their reopening plan. 1 person per elevator and 25% building capacity with many nonessential businesses still shut down is hardly ending the lockdowns. The last COVID restrictions in NY were not lifted until summer of 2021….
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@Jon said in "A policy failure of gigantic proportions”.:
How long were the lockdowns?
In New York State it lasted 8 weeks. I don’t think it was a policy failure here, given (1) the severity of the initial outbreak in NYC, and (2) how little we knew at the time.
In other states it probably was a failure. At least in hindsight.
That’s disingenuous at best. NY entered Phase 1 of their reopening plan. 1 person per elevator and 25% building capacity with many nonessential businesses still shut down is hardly ending the lockdowns. The last COVID restrictions in NY were not lifted until summer of 2021….
@LuFins-Dad which sort of begs the question: "What is a 'lockdown'?"
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Social distancing /= lockdown.
True it was a phased reopening. But by July even most cultural institutions were allowed to reopen. Schools too.
To the point of the thread, the interventions with large collateral costs really ended pretty soon.
Broadway closed the entire year, there’s some economic damage there.
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How long were the lockdowns?
In New York State it lasted 8 weeks. I don’t think it was a policy failure here, given (1) the severity of the initial outbreak in NYC, and (2) how little we knew at the time.
In other states it probably was a failure. At least in hindsight.
@Jon said in "A policy failure of gigantic proportions”.:
How long were the lockdowns?
There were three separate ones. My mother went into a nursing home right as the first one kicked in, although she was probably only partially aware of what was going on.
My recollection of the following couple of years was that the level of restriction seemed to vary significantly depending on the local conditions, so in late 2020 I had a friend in Wales who was at home 100% of the time, whereas my brother in Manchester, who admittedly works in an area designated as an essential service, was pretty much working as usual, and traveling around quite a bit.
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Social distancing /= lockdown.
True it was a phased reopening. But by July even most cultural institutions were allowed to reopen. Schools too.
To the point of the thread, the interventions with large collateral costs really ended pretty soon.
Broadway closed the entire year, there’s some economic damage there.
@Jon said in "A policy failure of gigantic proportions”.:
Broadway closed the entire year, there’s some economic damage there.
Schools were closed longer, iirc.Weingarten (president of American Federation of Teachers) lobbied to keep them closed, iirc.
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We had a hybrid model that meant the kids started going back in September 2020 but with reduced class sizes and working partially from home.
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Not statewide. Our district was only closed spring of 2020. The city stayed closed for 2020-2021 I believe.
@Jon said in "A policy failure of gigantic proportions”.:
Not statewide. Our district was only closed spring of 2020. The city stayed closed for 2020-2021 I believe.
Yes, I seem to recall that N.Y.C. didn’t reopen until September, 2021 and even delayed then, but that’s on the city not on the state.
However, did your schools fully reopen for in-person learning in the fall of 2020? Or was it a hybrid model? Here we had the choice of 2 days in-school/3 days remote or you could choose a full-time remote. It was Luke’s senior year. He was essentially done and most of the important classes were disrupted by the disjointed schedule so we opted for remote, but I would still argue that a part time schedule is still a type of lockdown.
The Brad
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@Horace said in "A policy failure of gigantic proportions”.:
I remember well the tenor of conversation here on TNCR at the time. The full-stop fear of getting sick was thick in the air, and the pricelessness of human life was an idea taken seriously.
I’ll cop to the former, the transplant physicians were genuinely worried it would be a death sentence for us. Indeed for many it was and still is. I had a transplant friend die of Covid as recently as April 15th (some 2 days before I tested positive).
I don’t remember anyone here adopting the latter view.
@Jon said in "A policy failure of gigantic proportions”.:
@Horace said in "A policy failure of gigantic proportions”.:
I remember well the tenor of conversation here on TNCR at the time. The full-stop fear of getting sick was thick in the air, and the pricelessness of human life was an idea taken seriously.
I’ll cop to the former, the transplant physicians were genuinely worried it would be a death sentence for us. Indeed for many it was and still is. I had a transplant friend die of Covid as recently as April 15th (some 2 days before I tested positive).
Your fear of getting sick was understandable, but it wasn't just you.
I don’t remember anyone here adopting the latter view.
It was prevalent here.
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I admit to getting sucked in.
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There was a huge amount of uncertainty. Managing a pandemic with 20/20 hindsight is real easy.
I remember in March/April 2020 leaving the mail in the sun-room to decontaminate for 24 hours. It seems ridiculous now. I got yelled at by a pedestrian when I cycled past them for being within 8 feet, then around the next corner I saw a bunch of older guys jogging and thinking they were crazy for getting so close.
Even now, things vary - we have the husband of a liver transplant survivor working here - he still never meets anyone in person and wears a mask at all times when he leaves his office. Ironically, his wife ended up giving him covid.
I was only joking
