W VA - "Safe Republican"
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West Virginia Governor Jim Justice is officially in the Senate race, having announced his bid to unseat incumbent Democrat Joe Manchin. While we have long had this race as favored to flip – we started it at Likely Republican in our initial ratings back in January – Justice’s entry is yet another problem for Manchin in what is likely to be his first general election defeat of his career.
As West Virginia continues to solidify itself as a red bastion at all levels, Manchin has become the last Democrat standing. And we’re confident that 2024 will mark a historic shift in West Virginia history. We’re moving the West Virginia Senate race to Safe Republican.
Even if Manchin was popular, holding West Virginia would be an extremely difficult feat. Donald Trump carried the state by nearly 40 percentage points in 2016, while Manchin only held on 3.3% in 2018, a D+9 wave year nationally. Manchin would need to see an almost unprecedented level of ticket-splitting – levels we haven’t seen since the 2000s.
The problem is that Manchin is actually wildly unpopular. After two years of supporting most Democratic priorities, Manchin has unsurprisingly seen his once rosy approvals dip to 40% or below. His approval rating in the most recent Morning Consult poll is 17 points underwater, with 38% of voters approving while 55% disapprove. That’s the second-worst approval rating in the country for an incumbent Senator. A poll from the GOP-aligned Tarrance Group gives Manchin a similarly poor rating of 39-56%.
Much of Manchin’s woes seem to come from his support for the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a $740 billion climate package which was extremely unpopular in West Virginia. Seemingly recognizing this liability, Manchin has since gone to war publicly with the Biden administration’s implementation of the bill. He has even threatened to vote to repeal it in what would be one of the most abrupt flip-flops of all time.
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GOP has a good candidate.
Manchin does have a chance. Turn Republican, ask Jesus to forgive him and throw himself on the mercy of the West Virginia voters,
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GOP has a good candidate.
Manchin does have a chance. Turn Republican, ask Jesus to forgive him and throw himself on the mercy of the West Virginia voters,
@Jolly said in W VA - "Safe Republican":
GOP has a good candidate.
Manchin does have a chance. Turn Republican, ask Jesus to forgive him and throw himself on the mercy of the West Virginia voters,
That’s what Justice did…Hard core democrat until 2018.
Frankly, Manchin would have problems even if his popularity hadn’t slipped. Justice is loved.
