Why Trump can't win
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There's no electoral vote path:
But don’t take my word for it. Let’s dive in, shall we? Use this presidential election interactive map and do your own math if you wish. It takes 270 electoral votes to win, and Trump or any Republican starts off here with a 125-209 disadvantage with the supposed ‘in-play’ states being Maine (3), Nebraska (1), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (19), Ohio (17), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10), Minnesota (10), Iowa (6), Nevada (6), Arizona (11), Texas (40), Florida (30), Georgia (16), and North Carolina (16).
Of those ‘in-play’ states, Trump or really any GOP candidate could reasonably expect to pick up Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Iowa. That’s 109 electoral votes added to the original 125, for a total of 234. Even if you’re not a math wizard, you know that’s not nearly enough. Where are those 36 remaining electoral votes going to come from?
On the other side, it’s pretty safe to conclude that Democrats will add Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), the remaining portions of Maine (3) and Nebraska (1), and yes, Michigan (15) and Pennsylvania (19) to their total, bringing them up to 261. I know Trump supporters will howl that Michigan and Pennsylvania are in play, but I can assure you that electoral shifts over the past several years sparked by demographic changes as well as Trump’s own antics have rendered those states solid Democratic electoral strongholds. If you don’t believe me, I’ll simply refer you to Exhibit A: re-elected Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and Exhibit B: newly-minted Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman. I won’t even cite polling because his supporters would dismiss it anyway, but if you think Trump can take back those states, to paraphrase George Strait, I’ve got some ocean-front property in Arizona to sell you.
Speaking of … With only nine more electoral votes needed, there’s little room for error for Republicans with the remaining states - Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Nevada seems to have become a true toss-up of late, but, if I’m correct in my predictions so far, which way it goes this time around won’t make a difference. In order to recapture the presidency, Trump or DeSantis must win Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia. Winning two out of three might be an impressive feat, but it won’t result in a victory. Whoever the GOP candidate is must win them ALL. Excluding Nevada, that would be a razor thin 271-267 victory. Razor thin, but enough.
Now to be fair, I think a win in Wisconsin for Trump is entirely possible. Working-class voters there did manage to reelect Sen. Ron Johnson, after all. However, it’s hard to imagine the state that elected the likes of John McCain and Jeff Flake and rejected Kari Lake and Blake Masters for leftist Democrats is suddenly going to go all-in for Trump. It’s also hard to imagine that path for a state that reelected a popular GOP governor who has been maligned by Trump at every turn and soundly rejected Trump’s Senate pick in favor of the most leftist senator in American history.
So, dear Trump die-hards (I say this in a tone of friendly banter, recognizing that we are allies on the vast majority of issues), what’s YOUR plan for Trump victories in must-wins Arizona and Georgia? How are you gonna get it done? Lay it out in the comments below, but be warned - if your answer even remotely resembles “DeSiMp cAn’T WiN tHeRe EiThEr” or “muh election fraud,” your arguments will be summarily dismissed.
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The challenges that he lays out do also apply to DeSantis and any other Republican challengers…
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The challenges that he lays out do also apply to DeSantis and any other Republican challengers…
@LuFins-Dad said in Why Trump can't win:
The challenges that he lays out do also apply to DeSantis and any other Republican challengers…
Yes, and he comments on that at the end of the piece.
Whether DeSantis can win is irrelevant to this discussion because the argument is that TRUMP cannot win. It’s an entirely different topic that will be addressed when/if he enters the race, although I do think - for reasons I’ll address in future columns - that the Florida governor has a better shot than anyone else. Additionally, I am all for attempting to fix the election systems in various states, but we must work with what we have. I’m not ready to take the black pill just yet.
