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The New Coffee Room

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  3. Debt Ceiling 2023

Debt Ceiling 2023

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  • jon-nycJ Offline
    jon-nycJ Offline
    jon-nyc
    wrote on last edited by
    #18

    I think premium bonds are more likely.

    But hopefully the threat of them will make the GOP realize their hand is only so strong, and the ugliness of them will make the Dems realize their hand is only so strong, which will lead to some reasonable compromise.

    But I’m not sure I’d bet on it.

    Only non-witches get due process.

    • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
    AxtremusA 1 Reply Last reply
    • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

      I think premium bonds are more likely.

      But hopefully the threat of them will make the GOP realize their hand is only so strong, and the ugliness of them will make the Dems realize their hand is only so strong, which will lead to some reasonable compromise.

      But I’m not sure I’d bet on it.

      AxtremusA Offline
      AxtremusA Offline
      Axtremus
      wrote on last edited by
      #19

      @jon-nyc said in Debt Ceiling 2023:

      ... which will lead to some reasonable compromise.

      But what is a reasonable compromise for the "debt ceiling" issue?

      jon-nycJ JollyJ 2 Replies Last reply
      • AxtremusA Axtremus

        @jon-nyc said in Debt Ceiling 2023:

        ... which will lead to some reasonable compromise.

        But what is a reasonable compromise for the "debt ceiling" issue?

        jon-nycJ Offline
        jon-nycJ Offline
        jon-nyc
        wrote on last edited by
        #20

        @Axtremus

        Everyone would have their own definition.

        My own definition would be a combination of tax increases and benefit cuts that put us on a 10 year path to keep debt sustainably at 95% of GDP or less. It would have to be a bipartisan deal, since anything else would get undone a few years later.

        As I said before, I’m not holding my breath.

        Only non-witches get due process.

        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
        1 Reply Last reply
        • AxtremusA Axtremus

          @jon-nyc said in Debt Ceiling 2023:

          ... which will lead to some reasonable compromise.

          But what is a reasonable compromise for the "debt ceiling" issue?

          JollyJ Offline
          JollyJ Offline
          Jolly
          wrote on last edited by
          #21

          @Axtremus said in Debt Ceiling 2023:

          @jon-nyc said in Debt Ceiling 2023:

          ... which will lead to some reasonable compromise.

          But what is a reasonable compromise for the "debt ceiling" issue?

          Penny Plan.

          “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

          Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

          1 Reply Last reply
          • AxtremusA Offline
            AxtremusA Offline
            Axtremus
            wrote on last edited by
            #22

            https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/3835082-mccarthy-social-security-medicare-cuts-off-the-table/amp/

            McCarthy says cuts to Social Security and Medicare are off the table.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • AxtremusA Offline
              AxtremusA Offline
              Axtremus
              wrote on last edited by
              #23

              Public sentiment:

              https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/americans-low-confidence-leaders-gop-risk-political-disputes/story?id=96887707

              ... Just 26% of Americans adopt McCarthy's position that Congress should allow the government to pay its debts only if the administration agrees to cut federal spending. A broad 65% instead align with Biden's view that the issues of debt payment and federal spending should be handled separately.

              Even among Republicans, fewer than half – 48% – support coupling debt payment with cuts in federal spending. ...

              ... about eight in 10 adults across the political spectrum are concerned about the economic impacts of a default, and being very concerned peaks among Republicans, at 59%.
              ..

              1 Reply Last reply
              • JollyJ Offline
                JollyJ Offline
                Jolly
                wrote on last edited by
                #24

                Once the people learn how to vote themselves money...

                “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                1 Reply Last reply
                • LuFins DadL Offline
                  LuFins DadL Offline
                  LuFins Dad
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #25

                  I detect a little bias in the phrasing of the question… I wonder how the answers would have looked if you asked “Should the US borrow more money to pay for the debt it has already accrued and can’t pay without making spending cuts?”

                  The Brad

                  AxtremusA 1 Reply Last reply
                  • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                    I detect a little bias in the phrasing of the question… I wonder how the answers would have looked if you asked “Should the US borrow more money to pay for the debt it has already accrued and can’t pay without making spending cuts?”

                    AxtremusA Offline
                    AxtremusA Offline
                    Axtremus
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #26

                    @LuFins-Dad said in Debt Ceiling 2023:

                    I detect a little bias in the phrasing of the question… I wonder how the answers would have looked if you asked “Should the US borrow more money to pay for the debt it has already accrued and can’t pay without making spending cuts?”

                    There is also bias in your phrasing, for example, you could have cited "raising taxes" in place of "making spending cuts." It's actually quite lopsided when self-identified conservatives talk only about "spending cuts" as the only alternative to borrowing to deal with the national debt -- they completely overlook the revenue side of the equation, i.e., to raise taxes.

                    1 Reply Last reply
                    • JollyJ Offline
                      JollyJ Offline
                      Jolly
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #27

                      The average American pays just short of 30% of his income in taxes. That does not include state taxes, property taxes, fuel taxes, etc.

                      “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                      Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • jon-nycJ Offline
                        jon-nycJ Offline
                        jon-nyc
                        wrote on last edited by jon-nyc
                        #28

                        Of course “cutting spending” in the abstract is quite popular. It sounds like someone else’s sacrifice.

                        Once you’re specific you find that cuts are generally either unpopular (cut SSA or Medicare) or budgetarily immaterial (zero out “foreign aid”).

                        Only non-witches get due process.

                        • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                        JollyJ LuFins DadL 2 Replies Last reply
                        • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                          Of course “cutting spending” in the abstract is quite popular. It sounds like someone else’s sacrifice.

                          Once you’re specific you find that cuts are generally either unpopular (cut SSA or Medicare) or budgetarily immaterial (zero out “foreign aid”).

                          JollyJ Offline
                          JollyJ Offline
                          Jolly
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #29

                          @jon-nyc said in Debt Ceiling 2023:

                          Of course “cutting spending” in the abstract is quite popular. It sounds like someone else’s sacrifice.

                          Once you’re specific you find that cuts are generally either unpopular (cut SSA or Medicare) or budgetarily immaterial (zero out “foreign aid”).

                          Again, a variation of the Penny Plan. Let everybody share in the pain equally. Let Congress then make some hard choices on the allocation of funds.

                          “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                          Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                          jon-nycJ 1 Reply Last reply
                          • JollyJ Offline
                            JollyJ Offline
                            Jolly
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #30

                            Shucks, wonder if it would help to take all the unspent COVID money and pay debt with it?

                            “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                            Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                            1 Reply Last reply
                            • JollyJ Jolly

                              @jon-nyc said in Debt Ceiling 2023:

                              Of course “cutting spending” in the abstract is quite popular. It sounds like someone else’s sacrifice.

                              Once you’re specific you find that cuts are generally either unpopular (cut SSA or Medicare) or budgetarily immaterial (zero out “foreign aid”).

                              Again, a variation of the Penny Plan. Let everybody share in the pain equally. Let Congress then make some hard choices on the allocation of funds.

                              jon-nycJ Offline
                              jon-nycJ Offline
                              jon-nyc
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #31

                              @Jolly said in Debt Ceiling 2023:

                              @jon-nyc said in Debt Ceiling 2023:

                              Of course “cutting spending” in the abstract is quite popular. It sounds like someone else’s sacrifice.

                              Once you’re specific you find that cuts are generally either unpopular (cut SSA or Medicare) or budgetarily immaterial (zero out “foreign aid”).

                              Again, a variation of the Penny Plan. Let everybody share in the pain equally. Let Congress then make some hard choices on the allocation of funds.

                              The penny has exactly the problem i described. No specifics just a top line number.

                              Only non-witches get due process.

                              • Cotton Mather, Salem Massachusetts, 1692
                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

                                Of course “cutting spending” in the abstract is quite popular. It sounds like someone else’s sacrifice.

                                Once you’re specific you find that cuts are generally either unpopular (cut SSA or Medicare) or budgetarily immaterial (zero out “foreign aid”).

                                LuFins DadL Offline
                                LuFins DadL Offline
                                LuFins Dad
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #32

                                @jon-nyc said in Debt Ceiling 2023:

                                Of course “cutting spending” in the abstract is quite popular. It sounds like someone else’s sacrifice.

                                Once you’re specific you find that cuts are generally either unpopular (cut SSA or Medicare) or budgetarily immaterial (zero out “foreign aid”).

                                Do you consider moving the retirement age up by 1 year effective 2043 to be a “cut”?

                                SSA Administrative costs are $6.5 Billion per year. To you doubt that they could cut administrative expenses by $500 Million with no drop in performance and services? I have no doubt they could. I also have no doubt that service would be affected. They are addicted to the public teat…

                                The Brad

                                1 Reply Last reply
                                • LuFins DadL Offline
                                  LuFins DadL Offline
                                  LuFins Dad
                                  wrote on last edited by LuFins Dad
                                  #33

                                  Most private retirement accounts have an administrative cost of .30%. SSA is at .60% and at a MUCH higher volume with a much easier mission (2.5% returns). And their administrative overhead outside of payroll is much lower than the private market. I highly doubt Merril Lynch is getting GSA pricing for office furniture, computers, and such…

                                  There was some talk a few decades ago about privatization of SSA, but it was shot down. Fine. Just privatize the administration of the program…

                                  The Brad

                                  AxtremusA 1 Reply Last reply
                                  • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                                    Most private retirement accounts have an administrative cost of .30%. SSA is at .60% and at a MUCH higher volume with a much easier mission (2.5% returns). And their administrative overhead outside of payroll is much lower than the private market. I highly doubt Merril Lynch is getting GSA pricing for office furniture, computers, and such…

                                    There was some talk a few decades ago about privatization of SSA, but it was shot down. Fine. Just privatize the administration of the program…

                                    AxtremusA Offline
                                    AxtremusA Offline
                                    Axtremus
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #34

                                    @LuFins-Dad said in Debt Ceiling 2023:

                                    Most private retirement accounts have an administrative cost of .30%. SSA is at .60% and at a MUCH higher volume with a much easier mission (2.5% returns).

                                    This CNBC article says .45% "all-in" expense for private 401(k) accounts on average.

                                    As for the SSA, the .60% is the total including the administration of the disability insurance program. Excluding the disability insurance program, the "old age and survivorship insurance" program's administrative cost is only .40%.

                                    LuFins DadL 1 Reply Last reply
                                    • AxtremusA Axtremus

                                      @LuFins-Dad said in Debt Ceiling 2023:

                                      Most private retirement accounts have an administrative cost of .30%. SSA is at .60% and at a MUCH higher volume with a much easier mission (2.5% returns).

                                      This CNBC article says .45% "all-in" expense for private 401(k) accounts on average.

                                      As for the SSA, the .60% is the total including the administration of the disability insurance program. Excluding the disability insurance program, the "old age and survivorship insurance" program's administrative cost is only .40%.

                                      LuFins DadL Offline
                                      LuFins DadL Offline
                                      LuFins Dad
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #35

                                      @Axtremus said in Debt Ceiling 2023:

                                      @LuFins-Dad said in Debt Ceiling 2023:

                                      Most private retirement accounts have an administrative cost of .30%. SSA is at .60% and at a MUCH higher volume with a much easier mission (2.5% returns).

                                      This CNBC article says .45% "all-in" expense for private 401(k) accounts on average.

                                      As for the SSA, the .60% is the total including the administration of the disability insurance program. Excluding the disability insurance program, the "old age and survivorship insurance" program's administrative cost is only .40%.

                                      1. .45% for a 401K on average AFTER you start adding in ETF fees and such. The basic administrative fees are .37% according to your article. When we shopped retirement plans a few years ago, .30% was the magic number.

                                      2. 401Ks represent what? 30% of retirement plans? IRA’s run a little lower, I believe…

                                      3. Either way, none comes close to the sheer magnitude and volume of the SSA. That volume drives administrating costs down per dollar spent.

                                      The Brad

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • AxtremusA Offline
                                        AxtremusA Offline
                                        Axtremus
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #36

                                        https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-ratings-scope-ratings-idUSKBN2WX00H

                                        Scope Ratings on Friday placed the United States of America’s AA long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings in local and foreign currency under review for a possible downgrade due to longer run risks associated with the misuse of the debt ceiling instrument.
                                        ...

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • George KG Offline
                                          George KG Offline
                                          George K
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #37

                                          IMG_1683.jpeg

                                          https://www.wsj.com/articles/spending-restraint-isnt-wacko-just-ask-sen-biden-debt-ceiling-budget-gop-reform-taxes-6cf038ec

                                          "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                          The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

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