Think tank war games a Taiwan invasion
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I think the one thing that is probably bigger than most is what an invasion will do to the China economy.
Not just because of the cost of the invasion, but if the response from the rest of the world is appropriate, China economy would be very very seriously impacted.
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Yeah - if you take the international response to Russia (economic sanctions) and apply it to China, the repercussions would be HUGE.
China's export economy would collapse, likely leading to famine. Big negative repercussions on its trading partners as well, but brunt would be borne by China.