The Ukraine war thread
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If Putin uses nukes he stands to turn even his fair weather friends, India and China, against Russia. Given the messages coming out the NATO and the EU today, it is almost certain a nuke on a Ukrainian target would trigger article 5 of the NATO treaty. That happens and Putin loses his army and his Black Sea fleet.
Fear of what Putin could or would do is no solution. Fear of what he could, would or might do leads only to appeasement as his stated minimal terms amount to unconditional surrender of Ukraine to either Russian suzerainty or, more likely, loss of sovereignty altogether.
@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
If Putin uses nukes he stands to turn even his fair weather friends, India and China, against Russia. Given the messages coming out the NATO and the EU today, it is almost certain a nuke on a Ukrainian target would trigger article 5 of the NATO treaty. That happens and Putin loses his army and his Black Sea fleet.
Right, but in Putin's mind, he's in an existential conflict, right? So he gets desperate, drops a nuke, we take out his fleet and he takes that as a direct assault from NATO on Russia and we're right into plan A.
No one has a deescalation plan so how is that not a certainty at this point?
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@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
If Putin uses nukes he stands to turn even his fair weather friends, India and China, against Russia. Given the messages coming out the NATO and the EU today, it is almost certain a nuke on a Ukrainian target would trigger article 5 of the NATO treaty. That happens and Putin loses his army and his Black Sea fleet.
Right, but in Putin's mind, he's in an existential conflict, right? So he gets desperate, drops a nuke, we take out his fleet and he takes that as a direct assault from NATO on Russia and we're right into plan A.
No one has a deescalation plan so how is that not a certainty at this point?
The only one who ought to have a deescalation plan is Putin himself. It would appear he does not and I would suggest the thought of such never entered his mind. All he knows is escalation - even Kremlin talk of negotiation amounts to escalation as the stated terms or nothing less than unconditional surrender.
That is the predicament Kyiv and NATO are faced. Appease Putin by ceding whatever territory of Ukraine he wants now and in future and leave the rump state of what remains of Ukraine as a vassal state at the pleasure of a re-emerging Russian Empire or Soviet Union.
When thinking and talking about how to get Putin to deescalate and stop what he’s doing through diplomacy, remember the - albeit probably apocryphal - words of Churchill when urged to negotiate with Germany following the fall of France in 1940:
“You cannot negotiate with a tiger when he has your head in his mouth.”
You know the rest of the story.
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Some truths are eternal. If we bow to Putin’s nuclear blackmail today we will just find ourselves in the same position when he may be stronger. .
“I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill
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"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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Some truths are eternal. If we bow to Putin’s nuclear blackmail today we will just find ourselves in the same position when he may be stronger. .
@Mik said in The Ukraine war thread:
Some truths are eternal. If we bow to Putin’s nuclear blackmail today we will just find ourselves in the same position when he may be stronger. .
Yeah, I'm not saying we do it, I'm just asking: how is he not going to go nuclear anyway? Does anyone really think this isn't going to happen?
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I thought he was a planner.
If nukes were part of the plan, then lining up support for nukes would be part of the plan.
Tucker's opening tonight was about how AOC supports nuclear war, along with everyone in Washington. Maybe I should pay some attention to this.
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I thought he was a planner.
If nukes were part of the plan, then lining up support for nukes would be part of the plan.
Tucker's opening tonight was about how AOC supports nuclear war, along with everyone in Washington. Maybe I should pay some attention to this.
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The conscripts.
Public reports of the first deaths of ill-prepared mobilized Russian troops in Ukraine have sparked renewed criticism of the Russian military command. Russian media reported that five mobilized men from Chelyabinsk have already died in combat in Ukraine just three weeks after President Vladimir Putin’s declaration of partial mobilization on September 21.[1] The report led many pro-war milbloggers to claim that the number of dead and wounded among mobilized servicemen is likely higher than this due to lack of promised training, equipment, unit cohesion, and commanders, as well as repeated instances of wrongful mobilization.
https://news.yahoo.com/russian-conscripts-mostly-convicts-being-115204038.html:
Russian conscripts have started arriving in Luhansk Oblast. The vast majority of them are men who were serving sentences in Russian prisons at the time of conscription.
Source: Serhii Haidai, Head of the Luhansk Oblast Military Administration, during a briefing at the Ukraine Media Center/Ukrinform on 13 October
Quote from Haidai: "Conscripts are being deployed in the occupied territories. These are the newly drafted [soldiers] [Haidai is referring to the most recent wave of mobilisation that Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on 21 September - ed.]. There are both civilians and citizens of the Russian Federation who were serving sentences in prisons [at the time of conscription]; that is, convicts have been deployed [to fight in Ukraine]. And quite a lot of them at that."
Details: The head of the Luhansk Oblast Military Administration also added that the Russians have stopped allowing civilians to leave the occupied territories.
Haidai believes that the occupiers intend to use Ukrainian civilians as human shields for their soldiers.
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The conscripts.
Public reports of the first deaths of ill-prepared mobilized Russian troops in Ukraine have sparked renewed criticism of the Russian military command. Russian media reported that five mobilized men from Chelyabinsk have already died in combat in Ukraine just three weeks after President Vladimir Putin’s declaration of partial mobilization on September 21.[1] The report led many pro-war milbloggers to claim that the number of dead and wounded among mobilized servicemen is likely higher than this due to lack of promised training, equipment, unit cohesion, and commanders, as well as repeated instances of wrongful mobilization.
https://news.yahoo.com/russian-conscripts-mostly-convicts-being-115204038.html:
Russian conscripts have started arriving in Luhansk Oblast. The vast majority of them are men who were serving sentences in Russian prisons at the time of conscription.
Source: Serhii Haidai, Head of the Luhansk Oblast Military Administration, during a briefing at the Ukraine Media Center/Ukrinform on 13 October
Quote from Haidai: "Conscripts are being deployed in the occupied territories. These are the newly drafted [soldiers] [Haidai is referring to the most recent wave of mobilisation that Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on 21 September - ed.]. There are both civilians and citizens of the Russian Federation who were serving sentences in prisons [at the time of conscription]; that is, convicts have been deployed [to fight in Ukraine]. And quite a lot of them at that."
Details: The head of the Luhansk Oblast Military Administration also added that the Russians have stopped allowing civilians to leave the occupied territories.
Haidai believes that the occupiers intend to use Ukrainian civilians as human shields for their soldiers.
Speaking of conscripts…..sign ‘em up with an offer of frozen fish and limitless cabbage:
An army marches on its stomach ~ Napoleon Bonaparte
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Russia is trying to recruit retired pilots from Belarus
The Russian authorities are trying to recruit retired pilots from Belarus to participate in the war against Ukraine, the Belarusian Telegram channel Golovnogo Mozga reported on Oct. 14.
According to the channel, the Russian recruiters promise retired Belarusian pilots double pensions and combat payments if they agree to serve.
However, the channel said the Russian recruitment efforts have failed to achieve much success. Of the 60 pilots approached, only two agreed, it said.
Earlier this week, the media reported that Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko had decided to start a covert mobilization in Belarus.
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Doesn't this qualify as genocide?
No, at least by itself I do not believe it does. If proven in court, it is however a war crime against humanity along the lines of ethnic cleansing.
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Speaking to journalists after a summit with regional leaders in Kazakhstan's capital Astana, the Russian leader said that the recent strikes had destroyed 22 out of the 29 targets in Ukraine set by the military and that "they are getting" the remaining seven..
I take it then in Putin’s mind those apartment buildings, children’s playgrounds and the Faculty of Philology building in Kyiv’s Shevchenko University in addition to other civilian infrastructure were planned military targets.
Good grouping, Vlad.
Full article:
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The EU responds to Putin's nuclear saber-rattling.
On September 21, as he announced his mobilization of reservists to the battlefield, Putin alluded to his nuclear stockpile and said Russia would “use all the means at our disposal” if the country’s “territorial integrity” were threatened. “This is not a bluff,” he said.
Referring to this on Thursday, Borrell said: “Putin is saying that he’s not bluffing. Well, he can not afford bluffing.”
Ukraine’s supporters — NATO, the EU and the US — “are not bluffing either,” Borrell said.
“And any nuclear attack against Ukraine will create an answer. Not a nuclear answer, but such a powerful answer from the military side that the Russian army will be annihilated,” was his prediction.
As an EU figure, Borrell does not control any military force.
But in his role he represents member states including France, a nuclear power, and 21 of NATO’s 30 members, and has been involved in other aspects of the Western response to the invasion.
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The EU responds to Putin's nuclear saber-rattling.
On September 21, as he announced his mobilization of reservists to the battlefield, Putin alluded to his nuclear stockpile and said Russia would “use all the means at our disposal” if the country’s “territorial integrity” were threatened. “This is not a bluff,” he said.
Referring to this on Thursday, Borrell said: “Putin is saying that he’s not bluffing. Well, he can not afford bluffing.”
Ukraine’s supporters — NATO, the EU and the US — “are not bluffing either,” Borrell said.
“And any nuclear attack against Ukraine will create an answer. Not a nuclear answer, but such a powerful answer from the military side that the Russian army will be annihilated,” was his prediction.
As an EU figure, Borrell does not control any military force.
But in his role he represents member states including France, a nuclear power, and 21 of NATO’s 30 members, and has been involved in other aspects of the Western response to the invasion.
That is what I was referring to on Thursday in another post (#1066 above) NATO will respond to any Russian use of a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. Late last week or earlier this past week, Petreaus said the same during a BBC interview on TV.
Note that Putin has turned down the squelch on some his rhetoric the past 48 hours since the EU statement was made.
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That is what I was referring to on Thursday in another post (#1066 above) NATO will respond to any Russian use of a nuclear weapon in Ukraine. Late last week or earlier this past week, Petreaus said the same during a BBC interview on TV.
Note that Putin has turned down the squelch on some his rhetoric the past 48 hours since the EU statement was made.
@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
Petreaus said the same during a BBC interview on TV
Yeah, I remember Petreaus' comment. He was pretty definite in that.
