Well, I lost some more money...
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@Mik said in Well, I lost some more money...:
We assume it will. It’s not a great assumption.
It beats constantly saying we're teetering on the brink. No offence to Jolly (honestly, I mean it!), but he was saying exactly the same thing in 2008. Every time a Democrat is in power, it's the end of the world, and then we get a Republican. And then of course the other bunch say it's the end of the world, but for different reasons.
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@Mik said in Well, I lost some more money...:
We assume it will. It’s not a great assumption.
It beats constantly saying we're teetering on the brink. No offence to Jolly (honestly, I mean it!), but he was saying exactly the same thing in 2008. Every time a Democrat is in power, it's the end of the world, and then we get a Republican. And then of course the other bunch say it's the end of the world, but for different reasons.
@Doctor-Phibes said in Well, I lost some more money...:
@Mik said in Well, I lost some more money...:
We assume it will. It’s not a great assumption.
It beats constantly saying we're teetering on the brink. No offence to Jolly (honestly, I mean it!), but he was saying exactly the same thing in 2008. Every time a Democrat is in power, it's the end of the world, and then we get a Republican. And then of course the other bunch say it's the end of the world, but for different reasons.
@Doctor-Phibes said in Well, I lost some more money...:
@Mik said in Well, I lost some more money...:
We assume it will. It’s not a great assumption.
It beats constantly saying we're teetering on the brink. No offence to Jolly (honestly, I mean it!), but he was saying exactly the same thing in 2008. Every time a Democrat is in power, it's the end of the world, and then we get a Republican. And then of course the other bunch say it's the end of the world, but for different reasons.
Lad, I lost about 30% back then. Took three years to come back.
The problem with dips:
- Just because something happened before, does not mean it will happen again. Japan never came back, have they?
- A lot of problems occur for the individual investor with the timing of a market dip. As you get to be older, time is not on your side.
“Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”
Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton
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@Doctor-Phibes said in Well, I lost some more money...:
@Mik said in Well, I lost some more money...:
We assume it will. It’s not a great assumption.
It beats constantly saying we're teetering on the brink. No offence to Jolly (honestly, I mean it!), but he was saying exactly the same thing in 2008. Every time a Democrat is in power, it's the end of the world, and then we get a Republican. And then of course the other bunch say it's the end of the world, but for different reasons.
@Doctor-Phibes said in Well, I lost some more money...:
@Mik said in Well, I lost some more money...:
We assume it will. It’s not a great assumption.
It beats constantly saying we're teetering on the brink. No offence to Jolly (honestly, I mean it!), but he was saying exactly the same thing in 2008. Every time a Democrat is in power, it's the end of the world, and then we get a Republican. And then of course the other bunch say it's the end of the world, but for different reasons.
Lad, I lost about 30% back then. Took three years to come back.
The problem with dips:
- Just because something happened before, does not mean it will happen again. Japan never came back, have they?
- A lot of problems occur for the individual investor with the timing of a market dip. As you get to be older, time is not on your side.
@Jolly said in Well, I lost some more money...:
Lad, I lost about 30% back then. Took three years to come back.
Yes, so did I. As hard as it might be to believe, you're not the only one who saves
What's more, we lived with negative equity for over 5 years. You can blame Obama for the housing crash, however his predecessor didn't help that much.
The short-term crashes are only really a problem if you need to cash in your 401K or your long-term savings.
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@Mik said in Well, I lost some more money...:
Again I point out the importance of confidence. This administration does not help it along.
I agree with that, and he's not the only one. The British economy is in a spiral far more scary than the yanks - they've had Brexit, Boris and now Peaches Truss. A number of American (and British) conservatives said Brexit was going to be fantastic for Britain. Apparently, they're Fuckwits. Who knew?
Why would I care, you say? Well, due to exchange rate drops and market crashes we've just inherited a lot less than we would have if it wasn't for fuckwit central over there. First world problems, I guess. Still....
I was only joking
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What goes down will go up.
(At least long term, we will all be fine. At least I hope!!!)
@taiwan_girl said in Well, I lost some more money...:
What goes down will go up.
(At least long term, we will all be fine. At least I hope!!!)
Every rule is broken eventually. Every empire comes to an end at some point.
We might be ahead of a black swan event.
For instance, nuclear war doesn't seem to be completely unrealistic right now. Neither does full-scale war with China. Or an unprecedented recession. Or ... . Each of these may have a very small likelihood, but the combined likelihood that one of these "black swans" becomes reality isn't so small.
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@taiwan_girl said in Well, I lost some more money...:
What goes down will go up.
(At least long term, we will all be fine. At least I hope!!!)
Every rule is broken eventually. Every empire comes to an end at some point.
We might be ahead of a black swan event.
For instance, nuclear war doesn't seem to be completely unrealistic right now. Neither does full-scale war with China. Or an unprecedented recession. Or ... . Each of these may have a very small likelihood, but the combined likelihood that one of these "black swans" becomes reality isn't so small.
@Klaus said in Well, I lost some more money...:
@taiwan_girl said in Well, I lost some more money...:
What goes down will go up.
(At least long term, we will all be fine. At least I hope!!!)
Every rule is broken eventually. Every empire comes to an end at some point.
We might be ahead of a black swan event.
For instance, nuclear war doesn't seem to be completely unrealistic right now. Neither does full-scale war with China. Or an unprecedented recession. Or ... . Each of these may have a very small likelihood, but the combined likelihood that one of these "black swans" becomes reality isn't so small.
Have you ever considered a career in motivational speaking?
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@Mik said in Well, I lost some more money...:
Again I point out the importance of confidence. This administration does not help it along.
I agree with that, and he's not the only one. The British economy is in a spiral far more scary than the yanks - they've had Brexit, Boris and now Peaches Truss. A number of American (and British) conservatives said Brexit was going to be fantastic for Britain. Apparently, they're Fuckwits. Who knew?
Why would I care, you say? Well, due to exchange rate drops and market crashes we've just inherited a lot less than we would have if it wasn't for fuckwit central over there. First world problems, I guess. Still....
@Doctor-Phibes said in Well, I lost some more money...:
@Mik said in Well, I lost some more money...:
Again I point out the importance of confidence. This administration does not help it along.
I agree with that, and he's not the only one. The British economy is in a spiral far more scary than the yanks - they've had Brexit, Boris and now Peaches Truss. A number of American (and British) conservatives said Brexit was going to be fantastic for Britain. Apparently, they're Fuckwits. Who knew?
Why would I care, you say? Well, due to exchange rate drops and market crashes we've just inherited a lot less than we would have if it wasn't for fuckwit central over there. First world problems, I guess. Still....
May be first world, but that's personal. Sorry it happened.
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@taiwan_girl said in Well, I lost some more money...:
What goes down will go up.
(At least long term, we will all be fine. At least I hope!!!)
Every rule is broken eventually. Every empire comes to an end at some point.
We might be ahead of a black swan event.
For instance, nuclear war doesn't seem to be completely unrealistic right now. Neither does full-scale war with China. Or an unprecedented recession. Or ... . Each of these may have a very small likelihood, but the combined likelihood that one of these "black swans" becomes reality isn't so small.
@Klaus said in Well, I lost some more money...:
@taiwan_girl said in Well, I lost some more money...:
What goes down will go up.
(At least long term, we will all be fine. At least I hope!!!)
Every rule is broken eventually. Every empire comes to an end at some point.
We might be ahead of a black swan event.
For instance, nuclear war doesn't seem to be completely unrealistic right now. Neither does full-scale war with China. Or an unprecedented recession. Or ... . Each of these may have a very small likelihood, but the combined likelihood that one of these "black swans" becomes reality isn't so small.
It seems that every so many years we forget the lessons of the past.
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The principles that apply to personal finances necessarily apply to public finance as well. But we have lots of people pretending they do not.
@Mik said in Well, I lost some more money...:
The principles that apply to personal finances necessarily apply to public finance as well. But we have lots of people pretending they do not.
I talked elsewhere where I watched a series of documentaries on war material production and found some interesting nuggets. Here's the playlist for anybody interested:
https://m.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLfMrqOdrCidQ2gpuSIxW07ylqTu0Fln3v
Something I found out yesterday I did not know, was that Great Britain weathered the Great Depression much better than the U.S. America spent a lot of money on social and public works projects such as CCA, WPA, and infrastructure, trying to artificially create jobs. The Brits cut social programs and lowered taxes. By the latter part of the 1930's, America was still wallowing in the Depression, while the British economy was definitely on the upswing.
That meant that when WW2 started, the Brits rapidly caught up with, and surpassed, German war production, because their industrial base was more vibrant.
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Last night I got a signal that the market may be in for a short-term upswing. I was notified that a long AAPL option position of mine, meant as insurance for a different, opposite position, was exercised, forcing me to buy a bunch of overpriced AAPL shares. Whomever exercised those options, thinks that apple is at a bottom. I hope they're right. Meanwhile I'll be selling a bunch of AAPL shares and puts Monday morning, if anybody wants any.
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It’s fairly simple. When governments spend less and consumers spend more, times are good. When Government spends more and consumers spend less, times are less good. When everyone is spending like drunken sailors? Who the Fock knows?
