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The New Coffee Room

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  3. White House Redefines Recession

White House Redefines Recession

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  • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

    @George-K

    He has half a point. I very much remember the press sticking with the two quarter definition when both Bush administrations made the identical argument Biden is now.

    What he’s missing, of course, is any commentary as to whether the right wing press went along with the GOP administration arguments at the time (hint: they did).

    Does Mr Erickson think the RW press became propagandists in 90 and again in 2001? He’s oddly silent on that point.

    jon-nycJ Offline
    jon-nycJ Offline
    jon-nyc
    wrote on last edited by
    #40

    @jon-nyc said in White House Redefines Recession:

    @George-K

    He has half a point. I very much remember the press sticking with the two quarter definition when both Bush administrations made the identical argument Biden is now.

    George - it’s nice that Reuters is being consistent.

    Thank you for your attention to this matter.

    George KG 1 Reply Last reply
    • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

      @jon-nyc said in White House Redefines Recession:

      @George-K

      He has half a point. I very much remember the press sticking with the two quarter definition when both Bush administrations made the identical argument Biden is now.

      George - it’s nice that Reuters is being consistent.

      George KG Offline
      George KG Offline
      George K
      wrote on last edited by
      #41

      @jon-nyc said in White House Redefines Recession:

      @jon-nyc said in White House Redefines Recession:

      @George-K

      He has half a point. I very much remember the press sticking with the two quarter definition when both Bush administrations made the identical argument Biden is now.

      George - it’s nice that Reuters is being consistent.

      With no sense of what they said two years ago....

      No, we're not in a recession, Biden administration tells U.S. voters

      The U.S. economy is plagued by inflation and suffering from fallout from Russia's war in Ukraine - but it's not in recession. That's the message from White House officials.

      Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, economic adviser Brian Deese and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo have spoken out in recent days ahead of data on Thursday that may show that gross domestic product (GDP) shrank from April to June. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDP forecast suggests a 1.6% decline. That would mark the second quarter of GDP decline in a row.

      While a broad rule of thumb holds that two consecutive quarters of GDP drops signal a recession, the strong U.S. job market means this may be the rare moment when that is not enough for economists to declare the world’s largest economy in recession.

      The White House pushback against recession talk is about more than semantics. Talking about recession can become a self-fulfilling prophecy as businesses and consumers, concerned that tougher times are ahead, cut back on spending and investment plans.

      Semantics didn't apply to Japan, apparently.

      "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

      The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

      1 Reply Last reply
      • jon-nycJ Offline
        jon-nycJ Offline
        jon-nyc
        wrote on last edited by
        #42

        One story was written by Reuters US, one by Reuters Japan. Could simply be that Japan (like, say, the UK) defines it as 2Q negative GDP growth.

        Thank you for your attention to this matter.

        George KG 1 Reply Last reply
        • jon-nycJ jon-nyc

          One story was written by Reuters US, one by Reuters Japan. Could simply be that Japan (like, say, the UK) defines it as 2Q negative GDP growth.

          George KG Offline
          George KG Offline
          George K
          wrote on last edited by
          #43

          @jon-nyc said in White House Redefines Recession:

          One story was written by Reuters US, one by Reuters Japan. Could simply be that Japan (like, say, the UK) defines it as 2Q negative GDP growth.

          Fair enough.

          So, let's stay with one reporter. The economics reporter for Politico, Ben White:

          FYrzmxnXEAAxbxx.jpeg

          FYrzn9AXEAIDpAW.png

          FYrzqWWXgAIkr96.jpeg

          "IOW, ignore what I said two years ago, it's 'vexing'."

          My point is simple. You're right in that what defines a recession is more complex than simply two bad quarters, according to NEBR. Why haven't I been told that, until now?

          Either Ben White is ignorant about what a recession is, or he was ignorant about what a recession is. In either case, how is it that he does economics for Politico?

          "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

          The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

          1 Reply Last reply
          • HoraceH Offline
            HoraceH Offline
            Horace
            wrote on last edited by
            #44

            It would probably seem parsimonious to most people that verbal framing to support a political side is something people do, when they care about political sides. Reality, meet observer. Observer, meet reality.

            Education is extremely important.

            1 Reply Last reply
            • JollyJ Offline
              JollyJ Offline
              Jolly
              wrote on last edited by
              #45

              https://morningconsult.com/2022/07/13/recession-outlook-us-economy-data/

              If perception is reality in politics, 65% of Americans do not agree with the Resident or Jon.

              “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

              Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

              1 Reply Last reply
              • HoraceH Offline
                HoraceH Offline
                Horace
                wrote on last edited by
                #46

                .75 percent rate hike. Never gonna sell my home now. Darn this inflation! Biden has made me prisoner in my own home.

                Education is extremely important.

                1 Reply Last reply
                • HoraceH Offline
                  HoraceH Offline
                  Horace
                  wrote on last edited by
                  #47

                  Huge pop in the stock market after the hike. Let’s see how the market reacts tomorrow. If memory serves, the previous hike was received by immediate enthusiasm in stocks, followed by a crash the next day.

                  Education is extremely important.

                  taiwan_girlT 1 Reply Last reply
                  • HoraceH Horace

                    Huge pop in the stock market after the hike. Let’s see how the market reacts tomorrow. If memory serves, the previous hike was received by immediate enthusiasm in stocks, followed by a crash the next day.

                    taiwan_girlT Offline
                    taiwan_girlT Offline
                    taiwan_girl
                    wrote on last edited by
                    #48

                    @Horace said in White House Redefines Recession:

                    Huge pop in the stock market after the hike. Let’s see how the market reacts tomorrow. If memory serves, the previous hike was received by immediate enthusiasm in stocks, followed by a crash the next day.

                    Today's increase in the US stock market was 100% due to President Biden. Tomorrows crash is due to things beyond his control. 555

                    George KG HoraceH taiwan_girlT 3 Replies Last reply
                    • taiwan_girlT taiwan_girl

                      @Horace said in White House Redefines Recession:

                      Huge pop in the stock market after the hike. Let’s see how the market reacts tomorrow. If memory serves, the previous hike was received by immediate enthusiasm in stocks, followed by a crash the next day.

                      Today's increase in the US stock market was 100% due to President Biden. Tomorrows crash is due to things beyond his control. 555

                      George KG Offline
                      George KG Offline
                      George K
                      wrote on last edited by
                      #49

                      @taiwan_girl perfect.

                      "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                      The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                      1 Reply Last reply
                      • taiwan_girlT taiwan_girl

                        @Horace said in White House Redefines Recession:

                        Huge pop in the stock market after the hike. Let’s see how the market reacts tomorrow. If memory serves, the previous hike was received by immediate enthusiasm in stocks, followed by a crash the next day.

                        Today's increase in the US stock market was 100% due to President Biden. Tomorrows crash is due to things beyond his control. 555

                        HoraceH Offline
                        HoraceH Offline
                        Horace
                        wrote on last edited by
                        #50

                        @taiwan_girl said in White House Redefines Recession:

                        @Horace said in White House Redefines Recession:

                        Huge pop in the stock market after the hike. Let’s see how the market reacts tomorrow. If memory serves, the previous hike was received by immediate enthusiasm in stocks, followed by a crash the next day.

                        Today's increase in the US stock market was 100% due to President Biden. Tomorrows crash is due to things beyond his control. 555

                        58008

                        Education is extremely important.

                        taiwan_girlT 1 Reply Last reply
                        • HoraceH Horace

                          @taiwan_girl said in White House Redefines Recession:

                          @Horace said in White House Redefines Recession:

                          Huge pop in the stock market after the hike. Let’s see how the market reacts tomorrow. If memory serves, the previous hike was received by immediate enthusiasm in stocks, followed by a crash the next day.

                          Today's increase in the US stock market was 100% due to President Biden. Tomorrows crash is due to things beyond his control. 555

                          58008

                          taiwan_girlT Offline
                          taiwan_girlT Offline
                          taiwan_girl
                          wrote on last edited by
                          #51

                          @Horace ???

                          HoraceH 1 Reply Last reply
                          • LuFins DadL Offline
                            LuFins DadL Offline
                            LuFins Dad
                            wrote on last edited by
                            #52

                            CNBC

                            GDP fell 0.9% in the second quarter, the second straight decline and a strong recession signal

                            CNN

                            US economy contracts again, fueling recession fears

                            FOX

                            US economy enters technical recession after growth tumbles 0.9% in the second quarter

                            NPR (lol)

                            U.S. economy just had a 2nd quarter of negative growth. Is it in a recession?

                            Newsweek (lol again)

                            U.S. GDP Update Live: Economy Enters Recession Under Biden

                            The Brad

                            JollyJ 1 Reply Last reply
                            • taiwan_girlT taiwan_girl

                              @Horace ???

                              HoraceH Offline
                              HoraceH Offline
                              Horace
                              wrote on last edited by
                              #53

                              @taiwan_girl said in White House Redefines Recession:

                              @Horace ???

                              It’s my prediction for the nasdaq after a competent president is at the helm.

                              Education is extremely important.

                              1 Reply Last reply
                              • LuFins DadL LuFins Dad

                                CNBC

                                GDP fell 0.9% in the second quarter, the second straight decline and a strong recession signal

                                CNN

                                US economy contracts again, fueling recession fears

                                FOX

                                US economy enters technical recession after growth tumbles 0.9% in the second quarter

                                NPR (lol)

                                U.S. economy just had a 2nd quarter of negative growth. Is it in a recession?

                                Newsweek (lol again)

                                U.S. GDP Update Live: Economy Enters Recession Under Biden

                                JollyJ Offline
                                JollyJ Offline
                                Jolly
                                wrote on last edited by
                                #54

                                @LuFins-Dad said in White House Redefines Recession:

                                CNBC

                                GDP fell 0.9% in the second quarter, the second straight decline and a strong recession signal

                                CNN

                                US economy contracts again, fueling recession fears

                                FOX

                                US economy enters technical recession after growth tumbles 0.9% in the second quarter

                                NPR (lol)

                                U.S. economy just had a 2nd quarter of negative growth. Is it in a recession?

                                Newsweek (lol again)

                                U.S. GDP Update Live: Economy Enters Recession Under Biden

                                If it walks like a duck, etc.

                                “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                George KG 1 Reply Last reply
                                • JollyJ Jolly

                                  @LuFins-Dad said in White House Redefines Recession:

                                  CNBC

                                  GDP fell 0.9% in the second quarter, the second straight decline and a strong recession signal

                                  CNN

                                  US economy contracts again, fueling recession fears

                                  FOX

                                  US economy enters technical recession after growth tumbles 0.9% in the second quarter

                                  NPR (lol)

                                  U.S. economy just had a 2nd quarter of negative growth. Is it in a recession?

                                  Newsweek (lol again)

                                  U.S. GDP Update Live: Economy Enters Recession Under Biden

                                  If it walks like a duck, etc.

                                  George KG Offline
                                  George KG Offline
                                  George K
                                  wrote on last edited by
                                  #55

                                  @Jolly said in White House Redefines Recession:

                                  If it walks like a duck, etc.

                                  Yeah. What pisses me off is that, for all these decades, all these "experts" have tossed out the "R-word" to mean two quarters of contraction.

                                  Never, did the talking heads say what they're saying now - "Wait a minute, that's not really what a recession is. You didn't hear us right two years, five years, twenty years, 32 years, 40 years ago. Why weren't you paying attention, pleb?"

                                  "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                  The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                  1 Reply Last reply
                                  • JollyJ Offline
                                    JollyJ Offline
                                    Jolly
                                    wrote on last edited by
                                    #56

                                    alt text

                                    “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                    Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                    1 Reply Last reply
                                    • George KG Offline
                                      George KG Offline
                                      George K
                                      wrote on last edited by
                                      #57

                                      LOL

                                      "Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08

                                      The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.

                                      1 Reply Last reply
                                      • JollyJ Offline
                                        JollyJ Offline
                                        Jolly
                                        wrote on last edited by
                                        #58

                                        As heard on the radio...

                                        Today, the same party that has trouble defining what a woman is, cannot define what a recession is.

                                        “Cry havoc and let slip the DOGE of war!”

                                        Those who cheered as J-6 American prisoners were locked in solitary for 18 months without trial, now suddenly fight tooth and nail for foreign terrorists’ "due process". — Buck Sexton

                                        1 Reply Last reply
                                        • HoraceH Offline
                                          HoraceH Offline
                                          Horace
                                          wrote on last edited by
                                          #59

                                          Logic and reason and clarity in communication have become political weaknesses for the left. At which point, the Party of Science and Virtue (tm) handwaves them away. At least Trump isn't president.

                                          Education is extremely important.

                                          1 Reply Last reply
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