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Sanctions Push Russia to First Foreign Default Since Bolshevik Revolution
Russia missed payments on two foreign-currency bonds as of late Sunday, according to holders of the bonds. The day marks the expiration of a 30-day grace period since the country was due to pay the equivalent of $100 million in dollars and euros to bondholders.
The default has been long in coming since the West all but unplugged Russia from the global financial system, creating payment obstacles Moscow couldn’t overcome. It wasn’t expected to cause any immediate ripple effects in markets or Russia’s economy. Russian bonds have traded for pennies on the dollar since days after the invasion, a sign that investors believed default was probable.
Russia last failed to pay its foreign borrowing during the Bolshevik Revolution when Vladimir Lenin, the newly installed communist leader, repudiated the debt of the Russian Empire. Russia defaulted on its ruble-denominated bonds during a financial crisis in 1998, but it was able to stay current with its overseas debt at the time.
Litigation over the lack of payment could span years. Russia has accused the West of manufacturing an artificial default, and has gone to great lengths in recent months to route money in roundabout ways to get the required payments into the hands of bondholders.
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov on Thursday said Western nations created artificial barriers in order to “hang the label ‘default’ ” on Russia and called the situation a farce.
Russia has plenty of money from oil and gas sales to pay its foreign debts, which are relatively small compared with the size of its economy. But allied Western governments have blocked the Kremlin’s ability to tap foreign bank accounts or use cross-border payment networks to move money.
The Treasury Department last month let a prior sanctions exemption expire that had allowed U.S. banks and investors to process and receive payments on existing Russian bonds.
Because Russia has the money and intent to pay, its default is expected to pose unique legal challenges. Once the grace period is breached, bond investors can declare a default. Russia will claim its obligations were fulfilled. Unusual for most sovereign bonds, Russia’s don’t specify a jurisdiction to decide disputes. Lawyers say English or U.S. courts are likely venues to decide who is right.
The first step is for holders of 25% of the bonds to agree to invoke the so-called acceleration clause, which allows them to demand immediate repayment on the bonds’ outstanding amount. Bondholders have three years to bring claims against Russia to court.
“This is the messiest and most legally uncertain case of sovereign default that I can think of,” said Mark Weidemaier, a sovereign-debt specialist and law professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. “That’s got to be one of many things that makes investors nervous when they think about the prospect of suing the Russian government.”
One investor said clearinghouse Euroclear received funds for the May interest payments just before the Treasury’s exemption expiration. But the funds were frozen there due to sanctions, unable to be forwarded to his account. Lawyers say the bond documents are unclear over whether payments that reached the clearinghouse, but not the bondholder account, would constitute a formal default.
Practically speaking, and please type really slowly for my sake, what are the real-world implications of this other than Russia saying "Fuck you, we're not paying. Eat it. Eat it raw."
