Economic Chaos, Revolution, Civil War

[George K]

Sort of related to the Ukraine War Thread, but I thought this is worth standing alone.

Ivan Timofeev, a prominent Moscow-based academic, warns that Russia could face a repeat of the 1917-20 experience of economic chaos, revolution and civil war

I will outline Timofeev's main conclusions here /1

Timofeev warns that Russia faces "three baskets" of threats.

The first basket is an external threat posed by a united West, the second basket is an underdeveloped economy and public administration, and the third basket is a statehood crisis /2

Timofeev argues that the coalescence of these three threat baskets is unprecedented in the past century

In effect, the Ukraine war risks recreating the "perfect storm" revolution, foreign interference, civil war and economic collapse of 1917-20 /3

Timofeev argues that the pre-war order, while imperfect, would have led to Russia-West coexistence

Ukraine was a low priority, violence in Donbas was low and Russia had "wide room to maneuver" even though core security questions were unanswered /4

Timofeev argues that even if Russia gains large territories in Ukraine, its European security concerns will be unaddressed and faces intensified containment

Timofeev also debunks the notion that China and India will seamlessly compensate for Western sanctions /5

Beyond security risks, like more nukes in Europe, Timofeev believes that economic scarcity could create societal resentment

This breeds instability, as reactionaries carry out purges and repression in the name of keeping order, and tensions spiral /6

Timofeev does not believe totalitarianism is the way to keep stability. He rejects the repression of "fifth columns" and wants to avoid losing human capital

He also warns "liberalization" of economy would be more effective than popular calls for "mobilization" /7

Timofeev says the total "cancellation" of Russian culture in the West could benefit Russia as home becomes the only "safe haven" but much depends on how the Kremlin leverages this

Timofeev then warns that the international environment is much more difficult than in 1991 /8

Timofeev concludes by urging an end to "fatalism" and calling for the harnessing of Russia's "productive forces"

In his words: "Russia’s future rests on itself. Now is not the time for fatalism" /END

[Aqua Letifer]

Here's a question: can't economic sanctions work in concert with Kremlin propaganda to radicalize the populace? Make Russians more WWIII-friendly?