The Ukraine war thread
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Well I suppose the Russians can try but it’s arguably a matter of the old axiom:
people in glass houses should not throw stones
And, as a childhood school mate of mine used to add:
shouldn’t undress either.
Russia has done both.
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“I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill
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That’s my hunch as well. This time round logistics “should be” easier being that the whole of the Donbas borders Russia itself. However they are coming up against battle hardened Ukrainian troops in strong defensive positions. It could easily turn into a meat grinder if the Russians again rely on conscripts and the Ukrainians successfully continue to deploy the new weaponry coming into the country from NATO. In the end though I think just weight of numbers will eventually favour the Russians.
If the Kremlin can stop with the Donbas and the land corridor along the Sea of Azov to Crimea, that might be the victory sufficient to cause Putin to ratchet down his military campaign and engage in diplomacy. However, something tells me any negotiated armistice in the near future will be more result of mutual exhaustion on both sides and untenable in the long run so long as Putin remains in power.
“Little by little I am learning the art of being quite content by doing very little slowly” ~ Lionel Hardcastle
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@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
That’s my hunch as well. This time round logistics “should be” easier being that the whole of the Donbas borders Russia itself. However they are coming up against battle hardened Ukrainian troops in strong defensive positions. It could easily turn into a meat grinder if the Russians again rely on conscripts and the Ukrainians successfully continue to deploy the new weaponry coming into the country from NATO. In the end though I think just weight of numbers will eventually favour the Russians.
If the Kremlin can stop with the Donbas and the land corridor along the Sea of Azov to Crimea, that might be the victory sufficient to cause Putin to ratchet down his military campaign and engage in diplomacy. However, something tells me any negotiated armistice in the near future will be more result of mutual exhaustion on both sides and untenable in the long run so long as Putin remains in power.
Agreed. I feel this will not go well for the Ukrainians. The only positive things I see is the influx of weaponry and hardware from Europe and the US and the fact that the Russians are, more and more, relying on poorly-trained conscripts. I've read rumors that they are drafting 16 year olds into service.
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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Don’t know about 16 yr. olds- actually I find it doubtful being that Russian kids do not start grade 1 until they are 7 and remain in school until they are 17. Military age is 18 yr.
My MIL though tells us that the authorities are again going to door to door ensuring that this spring’s intake of conscripts show up for medical assessment as scheduled. That was a common practice up until about ten years ago when supposed reforms were initiated and required service was reduced to one year from two. She also said select Reservists on the supplementary duty lists are being called up to report.
“Little by little I am learning the art of being quite content by doing very little slowly” ~ Lionel Hardcastle
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@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
Don’t know about 16 yr. olds- actually I find it doubtful being that Russian kids do not start grade 1 until they are 7 and remain in school until they are 17. Military age is 18 yr.
Yeah, it's the Mail.
Kremlin is accused of recruiting 'child soldiers'
The Kremlin has resorted to recruiting children to boost its troop numbers in eastern Ukraine, according to human rights officials.
In a bid to replace the estimated 30,000 soldiers either killed, wounded or captured so far in the war, Moscow is said to be recruiting from youth clubs and conscripting 16-year-olds.
So-called ‘patriotic clubs’ sprang up in Russian-occupied parts of eastern Ukraine following its invasion in 2014 as part of a campaign to promote the country’s culture in Luhansk and Donetsk.
The reports come as Ukraine has been forced to give volunteer civilians weapons training so that they can defend their cities. The training includes close defence tactics, use of weaponry, military tactics and first aid. Yesterday, Ukrainian officials called on the United Nations to investigate Russia’s alleged use of ‘child soldiers’.
According to human rights organisations, the children are undergoing military training and could be sent to the frontline – perhaps against their will.
Some may have already been thrust into action and lost their lives in the fighting.
Reports have also suggested the badges and insignia of Russian military cadets, who are also not supposed to be deployed to war zones, have been found on battlefields in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian parliament commissioner on human rights Lyudmyla Denisova said: ‘The occupation authorities [of Luhansk and Donetsk] are conducting the mobilisation of children who participated in the so-called patriotic clubs, to the levels of illegal weapons formations.
She also said select Reservists on the supplementary duty lists are being called up to report.
I've also read that military personnel discharged in the last 10 years are being called up.
Saw one report today that claimed 30K Russian KIA.
"Now look here, you Baltic gas passer... " - Mik, 6/14/08
The saying, "Lite is just one damn thing after another," is a gross understatement. The damn things overlap.
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I've also read that military personnel discharged in the last 10 years are being called up.
Those are the select reservists to which my MIL was referring. In Russia a trained conscript after he has completed his term of service can either remain a career soldier or, if he wishes to return to civilian life, is placed on a supplementary duty list until, I think, he reaches 35 yrs old or a specified period of time as noted on his military record. The military school for training engineers is in the city my outlaws live, and it is reservist engineers she says are presently being mustered back into service. I am sure though that similar calls ups are happening with other specialties throughout the country.
30k? KIA? That would mean a minimum of 90k wounded and MIA. I find that level of military incompetence hard to fathom - even for the Russians. If true it is already a meat grinder comparable to the Rzhev battles in WWII against the Nazis.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battles_of_Rzhev
Also if true, Putin better declare victory and get out fast. He had also better hope that the Russian public buys that it is an unequivocal victory as well. Russian history has never smiled upon Tsars, politicians and generals who humiliate the motherland in war.
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Given the damage he has already done to Russia in world standing and economy, plus the apparent failure in Ukraine, I suspect he is weakened severely. Although from what I have been reading lately his decision to attack already came from a place of weakness and his history of bolstering his popularity through wars.
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“I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill
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@George-K said in The Ukraine war thread:
@Renauda said in The Ukraine war thread:
That’s my hunch as well. This time round logistics “should be” easier being that the whole of the Donbas borders Russia itself. However they are coming up against battle hardened Ukrainian troops in strong defensive positions. It could easily turn into a meat grinder if the Russians again rely on conscripts and the Ukrainians successfully continue to deploy the new weaponry coming into the country from NATO. In the end though I think just weight of numbers will eventually favour the Russians.
If the Kremlin can stop with the Donbas and the land corridor along the Sea of Azov to Crimea, that might be the victory sufficient to cause Putin to ratchet down his military campaign and engage in diplomacy. However, something tells me any negotiated armistice in the near future will be more result of mutual exhaustion on both sides and untenable in the long run so long as Putin remains in power.
Agreed. I feel this will not go well for the Ukrainians. The only positive things I see is the influx of weaponry and hardware from Europe and the US and the fact that the Russians are, more and more, relying on poorly-trained conscripts. I've read rumors that they are drafting 16 year olds into service.
The U.S. Army is currently training cannon cockers for the Ukranians. The cannon will be towed 155mm howitzers, and the guns will be the Ukranian's after training.
Little known fact...In WW2, the Russians were noted for the sheer volume of their artillery, but...The best artillery on the battlefield, bar none, was the U.S. Army. They perfected the use of the proximity fuse coupled with firing stonks. They are still the premier artillery units in the world.
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At best I think we can see a stalemate and a conditional armistice come out if this. Doubtful that Ukraine will ever cede and recognize any occupied territory as Russian and, for its part, Russia will never agree to allow what remains of Ukraine to become a NATO member without breaking the terms of the armistice. Likewise so long as there remains disputed territory between Russia and Ukraine, its not likely that an application by Ukraine to join can be considered.
Stalemate.
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“I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.” ~Winston S. Churchill
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Looks like Ukraine received some aircraft and spare parts although the Pentagon is not saying from whom or what type:
This weekend I read that Romania had offered Ukraine their hot rodded MiG 21 Lancers. Would make sense as the pilots and ground crews would have some familiarity with the aircraft.
Besides, it would make a good platform from which the Ukrainians could fire those Brimstone air to ground attack missiles they are about to receive from Britain.
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Read the thread on the Russian army's ability to conduct maneuvers in eastern Ukraine:
tl;dr: the Russian army has neither the experience nor readily available capability of conducting such a mega-offensive as we seen unfolding right now.
They may still pull it off, but this and other issues will translate into blunders and higher casualties.
